16 resultados para model-based reasoning processes
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.
Resumo:
Dating of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea has proven to be difficult due to uncertainties surrounding the 14C reservoir age and a scarcity of macrofossils suitable for dating. Here we present the results of multiple dating methods carried out on cores in the Gotland Deep area of the Baltic Sea. Particular emphasis is placed on the Littorina stage (8 ka ago to the present) of the Baltic Sea and possible changes in the 14C reservoir age of our dated samples. Three geochronological methods are used. Firstly, palaeomagnetic secular variations (PSV) are reconstructed, whereby ages are transferred to PSV features through comparison with varved lake sediment based PSV records. Secondly, lead (Pb) content and stable isotope analysis are used to identify past peaks in anthropogenic atmospheric Pb pollution. Lastly, 14C determinations were carried out on benthic foraminifera (Elphidium spec.) samples from the brackish Littorina stage of the Baltic Sea. Determinations carried out on smaller samples (as low as 4 µg C) employed an experimental, state-of-the-art method involving the direct measurement of CO2 from samples by a gas ion source without the need for a graphitisation step - the first time this method has been performed on foraminifera in an applied study. The PSV chronology, based on the uppermost Littorina stage sediments, produced ten age constraints between 6.29 and 1.29 cal ka BP, and the Pb depositional analysis produced two age constraints associated with the Medieval pollution peak. Analysis of PSV data shows that adequate directional data can be derived from both the present Littorina saline phase muds and Baltic Ice Lake stage varved glacial sediments. Ferrimagnetic iron sulphides, most likely authigenic greigite (Fe3S4), present in the intermediate Ancylus Lake freshwater stage sediments acquire a gyroremanent magnetisation during static alternating field (AF) demagnetisation, preventing the identification of a primary natural remanent magnetisation for these sediments. An inferred marine reservoir age offset (deltaR) is calculated by comparing the foraminifera 14C determinations to a PSV & Pb age model. This deltaR is found to trend towards younger values upwards in the core, possibly due to a gradual change in hydrographic conditions brought about by a reduction in marine water exchange from the open sea due to continued isostatic rebound.
Resumo:
Phosphorus cycling in the ocean is influenced by biological and geochemical processes that are reflected in the oxygen isotope signature of dissolved inorganic phosphate (Pi). Extending the Pi oxygen isotope record from the water column into the seabed is difficult due to low Pi concentrations and small amounts of marine porewaters available for analysis. We obtained porewater profiles of Pi oxygen isotopes using a refined protocol based on the original micro-extraction designed by Colman (2002). This refined and customized method allows the conversion of ultra-low quantities (0.5 - 1 µmol) of porewater Pi to silver phosphate (Ag3PO4) for routine analysis by mass spectrometry. A combination of magnesium hydroxide co-precipitation with ion exchange resin treatment steps is used to remove dissolved organic matter, anions, and cations from the sample before precipitating Ag3PO4. Samples as low as 200 µg were analyzed in a continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometer setup. Tests with external and laboratory internal standards validated the preservation of the original phosphate oxygen isotope signature (d18OP) during micro extraction. Porewater data on d18OP has been obtained from two sediment cores of the Moroccan margin. The d18OP values are in a range of +19.49 to +27.30 per mill. We apply a simple isotope mass balance model to disentangle processes contributing to benthic P cycling and find evidence for Pi regeneration outbalancing microbial demand in the upper sediment layers. This highlights the great potential of using d18OP to study microbial processes in the subseafloor and at the sediment water interface.
Resumo:
Limited availability of P in soils to crops may be due to deficiency and/or severe P retention. Earlier studies that drew on large soil profile databases have indicated that it is not (yet) feasible to present meaningful values for "plant-available" soil P, obtained according to comparable analytical methods, that may be linked to soil geographical databases derived from 1:5 million scale FAO Digital Soil Map of the World, such as the 5 x 5 arc-minute version of the ISRIC-WISE database. Therefore, an alternative solution for studying possible crop responses to fertilizer-P applied to soils, at a broad scale, was sought. The approach described in this report considers the inherent capacity of soils to retain phosphorus (P retention), in various forms. Main controlling factors of P retention processes, at the broad scale under consideration, are considered to be pH, soil mineralogy, and clay content. First, derived values for these properties were used to rate the inferred capacity for P retention of the component soil units of each map unit (or grid cell) using four classes (i.e., Low, Moderate, High, and Very High). Subsequently, the overall soil phosphorus retention potential was assessed for each mapping unit, taking into account the P-ratings and relative proportion of each component soil unit. Each P retention class has been assigned to a likely fertilizer P recovery fraction, derived from the literature, thereby permitting spatially more detailed, integrated model-based studies of environmental sustainability and agricultural production at the global and continental level (< 1:5 million). Nonetheless, uncertainties remain high; the present analysis provides an approximation of world soil phosphorus retention potential.
Resumo:
The ultramafic-hosted Logatchev Hydrothermal Field (LHF) at 15°N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Arctic Gakkel Ridge (GR) feature carbonate precipitates (aragonite, calcite, and dolomite) in voids and fractures within different types of host rocks. We present chemical and Sr isotopic compositions of these different carbonates to examine the conditions that led to their formation. Our data reveal that different processes have led to the precipitation of carbonates in the various settings. Seawater-like 87Sr/86Sr ratios for aragonite in serpentinites (0.70909 to 0.70917) from the LHF are similar to those of aragonite from the GR (0.70912 to 0.70917) and indicate aragonite precipitation from seawater at ambient conditions at both sites. Aragonite veins in sulfide breccias from LHF also have seawater-like Sr isotope compositions (0.70909 to 0.70915), however, their rare earth element (REE) patterns show a clear positive europium (Eu) anomaly indicative of a small (< 1%) hydrothermal contribution. In contrast to aragonite, dolomite from the LHF has precipitated at much higher temperatures (~100 °C), and yet its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.70896 to 0.70907) are only slightly lower than those of aragonite. Even higher temperatures are calculated for the precipitation of deformed calcite veins in serpentine-talc fault schists form north of the LHF. These calcites show unradiogenic 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.70460 to 0.70499) indicative of precipitation from evolved hydrothermal fluids. A simple mixing model based on Sr mass balance and enthalpy conservation indicates strongly variable conditions of fluid mixing and heat transfers involved in carbonate formation. Dolomite precipitated from a mixture of 97% seawater and 3% hydrothermal fluid that should have had a temperature of approximately 14 °C assuming that no heat was transferred. The much higher apparent precipitation temperatures based on oxygen isotopes (~ 100 °C) may be indicative of conductive heating, probably of seawater prior to mixing. The hydrothermal calcite in the fault schist has precipitated from a mixture of 67% hydrothermal fluid and 33% seawater, which should have had an isenthalpic mixing temperature of ~ 250 °C. The significantly lower temperatures calculated from oxygen isotopes are likely due to conductive cooling of hydrothermal fluid discharging along faults. Rare earth element patterns corroborate the results of the mixing model, since the hydrothermal calcite, which formed from waters with the greatest hydrothermal contribution, has REE patterns that closely resemble those of vent fluids from the LHF. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, that (1) precipitation from pure seawater, (2) conductive heating of seawater, and (3) conductive cooling of hydrothermal fluids in the sub-seafloor all can lead to carbonate precipitation within a single ultramafic-hosted hydrothermal system.