Oxygen isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios of fossil corals from Bonaire

Explanations for the demise of the Classic Maya civilization on the Yucatán Peninsula during the Terminal Classic Period (TCP; CE 750-1050) are controversial. Multiyear droughts are one likely cause, but the role of the Caribbean Sea, the dominant moisture source for Mesoamerica, remains largely unknown. Here we present bimonthly resolved snapshots of reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) variability in the southern Caribbean from precisely dated fossil corals. Our fossil coral results from Bonaire indicate strong interannual to decadal SST and SSS variability in the southern Caribbean Sea during the TCP with multiyear extremes of high SSS and high SST that coincide with droughts on the Yucatán Peninsula. The results are best explained by changed Caribbean SST gradients affecting the Caribbean low-level atmospheric jet with consequences for Mesoamerican precipitation, possibly linked to changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength. Our findings provide a new perspective on the anomalous hydrological changes on the Yucatán Peninsula during the TCP that complement the often-suggested southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We advocate for a strong role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Caribbean Sea related to the multiyear variations in Caribbean Sea surface conditions as an important driver of the spatially complex pattern of hydrological anomalies during the TCP.