34 resultados para mean-variance estimation

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

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We use a multiproxy approach to monitor changes in the vertical profile of the Indonesian Throughflow as well as monsoonal wind and precipitation patterns in the Timor Sea on glacial-interglacial, precessional, and suborbital timescales. We focus on an interval of extreme climate change and sea level variation: marine isotope (MIS) 6 to MIS 5e. Paleoproductivity fluctuations in the Timor Sea follow a precessional beat related to the intensity of the Australian (NW) monsoon. Paired Mg/Ca and d18O measurements of surface- and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifers (G. ruber and P. obliquiloculata) indicate an increase of >4°C in both surface and thermocline water temperatures during Termination II. Tropical sea surface temperature changed synchronously with ice volume (benthic d18O) during deglaciation, implying a direct coupling of high- and low-latitude climate via atmospheric and/or upper ocean circulation. Substantial cooling and freshening of thermocline waters occurred toward the end of Termination II and during MIS 5e, indicating a change in the vertical profile of the Indonesian Throughflow from surface- to thermocline-dominated flow.

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This dataset present result from the DFG- funded Arctic-Turbulence-Experiment (ARCTEX-2006) performed by the University of Bayreuth on the island of Svalbard, Norway, during the winter/spring transition 2006. From May 5 to May 19, 2006 turbulent flux and meteorological measurements were performed on the monitoring field near Ny-Ålesund, at 78°55'24'' N, 11°55'15'' E Kongsfjord, Svalbard (Spitsbergen), Norway. The ARCTEX-2006 campaign site was located about 200 m southeast of the settlement on flat snow covered tundra, 11 m to 14 m above sea level. The permanent sites used for this study consisted of the 10 m meteorological tower of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI), the international standardized radiation measurement site of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the radiosonde launch site and the AWI tethered balloon launch sites. The temporary sites - set up by the University of Bayreuth - were a 6 m meteorological gradient tower, an eddy-flux measurement complex (EF), and a laser-scintillometer section (SLS). A quality assessment and data correction was applied to detect and eliminate specific measurement errors common at a high arctic landscape. In addition, the quality checked sensible heat flux measurements are compared with bulk aerodynamic formulas that are widely used in atmosphere-ocean/land-ice models for polar regions as described in Ebert and Curry (1993, doi:10.1029/93JC00656) and Launiainen and Cheng (1995). These parameterization approaches easily allow estimation of the turbulent surface fluxes from routine meteorological measurements. The data show: - the role of the intermittency of the turbulent atmospheric fluctuation of momentum and scalars, - the existence of a disturbed vertical temperature profile (sharp inversion layer) close to the surface, - the relevance of possible free convection events for the snow or ice melt in the Arctic spring at Svalbard, and - the relevance of meso-scale atmospheric circulation pattern and air-mass advection for the near-surface turbulent heat exchange in the Arctic spring at Svalbard. Recommendations and improvements regarding the interpretation of eddy-flux and laser-scintillometer data as well as the arrangement of the instrumentation under polar distinct exchange conditions and (extreme) weather situations could be derived.

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Millennial-scale records of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca, bulk sediment UK37', and planktonic foraminiferal d18O are presented across the last two deglaciations in sediment core NIOP929 from the Arabian Sea. Mg/Ca-derived temperature variability during the penultimate and last deglacial periods falls within the range of modern day Arabian Sea temperatures, which are influenced by monsoon-driven upwelling. The UK37'-derived temperatures in MIS 5e are similar to modern intermonsoon values and are on average 3.5°C higher than the Mg/Ca temperatures in the same period. MIS 5e UK37' and Mg/Ca temperatures are 1.5°C warmer than during the Holocene, while the UK37'-Mg/Ca temperature difference was about twice as large during MIS 5e. This is surprising as, nowadays, both proxy carriers have a very similar seasonal and depth distribution. Partial explanations for the MIS 5e UK37'-Mg/Ca temperature offset include carbonate dissolution, the change in dominant alkenone-producing species, and possibly lateral advection of alkenone-bearing material and a change in seasonal or depth distribution of proxy carriers. Our findings suggest that (1) Mg/Ca of G. ruber documents seawater temperature in the same way during both studied deglaciations as in the present, with respect to, e.g., season and depth, and (2) UK37'-based temperatures from MIS 5 (or older) represent neither upwelling SST nor annual average SST (as it does in the present and the Holocene) but a higher temperature, despite alkenone production mainly occurring in the upwelling season. Further we report that at the onset of the deglacial warming, the Mg/Ca record leads the UK37' record by 4 ka, of which a maximum of 2 ka may be explained by postdepositional processes. Deglacial warming in both temperature records leads the deglacial decrease in the d18O profile, and Mg/Ca-based temperature returns to lower values before d18O has reached minimum interglacial values. This indicates a substantial lead in Arabian Sea warming relative to global ice melting.

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The Turonian (93.5 to 89.3 million years ago) was one of the warmest periods of the Phanerozoic eon, with tropical sea surface temperatures over 35°C. High-amplitude sea-level changes and positive d18O excursions in marine limestones suggest that glaciation events may have punctuated this episode of extreme warmth. New d18O data from the tropical Atlantic show synchronous shifts ~91.2 million years ago for both the surface and deep ocean that are consistent with an approximately 200,000-year period of glaciation, with ice sheets of about half the size of the modern Antarctic ice cap. Even the prevailing supergreenhouse climate was not a barrier to the formation of large ice sheets, calling into question the common assumption that the poles were always ice-free during past periods of intense global warming.

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Carbon isotopically based estimates of CO2 levels have been generated from a record of the photosynthetic fractionation of 13C (epsilon p) in a central equatorial Pacific sediment core that spans the last ~255 ka. Contents of 13C in phytoplanktonic biomass were determined by analysis of C37 alkadienones. These compounds are exclusive products of Prymnesiophyte algae which at present grow most abundantly at depths of 70-90 m in the central equatorial Pacific. A record of the isotopic compostion of dissolved CO2 was constructed from isotopic analyses of the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, which calcifies at 70-90 m in the same region. Values of epsilon p, derived by comparison of the organic and inorganic delta values, were transformed to yield concentrations of dissolved CO2 (c e) based on a new, site-specific calibration of the relationship between epsilon p and c e. The calibration was based on reassessment of existing epsilon p versus c e data, which support a physiologically based model in which epsilon p is inversely related to c e. Values of PCO2, the partial pressure of CO2 that would be in equilibrium with the estimated concentrations of dissolved CO2, were calculated using Henry's law and the temperature determined from the alkenone-unsaturation index UK 37. Uncertainties in these values arise mainly from uncertainties about the appropriateness (particularly over time) of the site-specific relationship between epsilon p and 1/c e. These are discussed in detail and it is concluded that the observed record of epsilon p most probably reflects significant variations in Delta pCO2, the ocean-atmosphere disequilibrium, which appears to have ranged from ~110 µatm during glacial intervals (ocean > atmosphere) to ~60 µatm during interglacials. Fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere would thus have been significantly larger during glacial intervals. If this were characteristic of large areas of the equatorial Pacific, then greater glacial sinks for the equatorially evaded CO2 must have existed elsewhere. Statistical analysis of air-sea pCO2 differences and other parameters revealed significant (p < 0.01) inverse correlations of Delta pCO2 with sea surface temperature and with the mass accumulation rate of opal. The former suggests response to the strength of upwelling, the latter may indicate either drawdown of CO2 by siliceous phytoplankton or variation of [CO2]/[Si(OH)4] ratios in upwelling waters.

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During the six Heinrich Events of the last 70 ka episodic calving from the circum-Atlantic ice sheets released large numbers of icebergs into the North Atlantic. These icebergs and associated melt-water flux are hypothesized to have led to a shutdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and severe cooling in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, due to the limited availability of high-resolution records the magnitude sea surface temperature (SST) changes related to the impact of Heinrich Events on the mid-latitude North Atlantic is poorly constrained. Here we present a record of UK37'-based SSTs derived from sediments of Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Site U1313, located at the southern end of the ice-rafted debris (IRD)-belt in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (41°N). We demonstrate that all six Heinrich Events are associated with a rapid warming of surface waters by 2 to 4°C in a few thousand years. The presence of IRD leaves no doubt about the simultaneous timing and correlation between rapid surface water warming and Heinrich Events. We argue that this warming in the mid-latitude North Atlantic is related to a northward expansion of the subtropical gyre during Heinrich Events. As a wide-range of studies demonstrated that in the central IRD-belt Heinrich Events are associated with low SSTs, these results thus identify an anti-phased (seesaw) pattern in SSTs during Heinrich Events between the mid-latitude (warm) and northern North Atlantic (cold). This highlights the complex response of surface water characteristics in the North Atlantic to Heinrich Events that is poorly reproduced by fresh water hosing experiments and challenges the widely accepted view that within the IRD-belt of the North Atlantic Heinrich Events coincide with periods of low SSTs.

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Nutrient supply in the area off Northwest Africa is mainly regulated by two processes, coastal upwelling and deposition of Saharan dust. In the present study, both processes were analyzed and evaluated by different methods, including cross-correlation, multiple correlation, and event statistics, using remotely sensed proxies of the period from 2000 to 2008 to investigate their influence on the marine environment. The remotely sensed chlorophyll-a concentration was used as a proxy for the phytoplankton biomass stimulated by nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from deeper water layers and from the atmosphere. Satellite-derived alongshore wind stress and sea-surface temperature were applied as proxies for the strength and reflection of coastal upwelling processes. The westward wind and the dust component of the aerosol optical depth describe the transport direction of atmospheric dust and the atmospheric dust column load. Alongshore wind stress and induced upwelling processes were most significantly responsible for the surface chlorophyll-a variability, accounting for about 24% of the total variance, mainly in the winter and spring due to the strong north-easterly trade winds. The remotely sensed proxies allowed determination of time lags between biological response and its forcing processes. A delay of up to 16 days in the surface chlorophyll-a concentration due to the alongshore wind stress was determined in the northern winter and spring. Although input of atmospheric iron by dust storms can stimulate new phytoplankton production in the study area, only 5% of the surface chlorophyll-a variability could be ascribed to the dust component in the aerosol optical depth. All strong desert storms were identified by an event statistics in the time period from 2000 to 2008. The 57 strong storms were studied in relation to their biological response. Six events were clearly detected in which an increase of chlorophyll-a was caused by Saharan dust input and not by coastal upwelling processes. Time lags of <8 days, 8 days, and 16 days were determined. An increase in surface chlorophyll-a concentration of up to 2.4 mg m**3 after dust storms in which the dust component of the aerosol optical depth was up to 0.9 was observed.

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Hudson Strait (HS) Heinrich Events, ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic originating from the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS), are among the most dramatic examples of millennial-scale climate variability and have a large influence on global climate. However, it is debated as to whether the occurrence of HS Heinrich Events in the (eastern) North Atlantic in the geological record depends on greater ice discharge, or simply from the longer survival of icebergs in cold waters. Using sediments from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1313 in the North Atlantic spanning the period between 960 and 320 ka, we show that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) did not control the first occurrence of HS Heinrich(-like) Events in the sedimentary record. Using mineralogy and organic geochemistry to determine the characteristics of ice-rafting debris (IRD), we detect the first HS Heinrich(-like) Event in our record around 643 ka (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 16), which is similar as previously reported for Site U1308. However, the accompanying high-resolution alkenone-based SST record demonstrates that the first HS Heinrich(-like) Event did not coincide with low SSTs. Thus, the HS Heinrich(-like) Events do indicate enhanced ice discharge from the LIS at the end of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, not simply the survivability of icebergs due to cold conditions in the North Atlantic.

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The Subtropical Front (STF) marking the northern boundary of the Southern Ocean has a steep gradient in sea surface temperature (SST) of approximately 4°C over 0.5° of latitude. Presently, in the region south of Tasmania, the STF lies nominally at 47°S in the summer and 45°S in the winter. We present here SST reconstructions in a latitudinal transect of cores across the South Tasman Rise, southeast of Australia, during the late Quaternary. SST reconstructions are based on two paleotemperature proxies, alkenones and faunal assemblages, which are used to assess past changes in SST in spring and summer. The north-south alignment in core locations allows reconstruction of movement of the STF over the last 100 ka. Surface water temperatures during the last glaciation in this region were ~4°C colder than today. Additional temperature changes greater in magnitude than 4°C seen in individual cores can be attributed to changes in the water mass overlying the core site caused by the movement of the front across that location. During the penultimate interglacial, SST was ~2°C warmer and the STF was largely positioned south of 47°S. Movement of the STF to the north occurred during cool climate periods such as the last marine isotope stages 3 and 4. In the last glaciation, the front was at its farthest north position, becoming pinned against the Tasmanian landmass. It moved south by 4° latitude to 47°S in summer during the deglaciation but remained north of 45°S in spring throughout the early deglaciation. After 11 ka B.P. inferred invigoration of the East Australia Current appears to have pushed the STF seasonally south of the East Tasman Plateau, until after 6 ka B.P. when it achieved its present configuration.