Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix, supplementary material

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.

Planktonic and benthic stables Isotopes, age model and carbon analysis of HUD91/039 from the northernmost Baffin Bay

A multiproxy study of palaeoceanographic and climatic changes in northernmost Baffin Bay shows that major environmental changes have occurred since the deglaciation of the area at about 12 500 cal. yr BP. The interpretation is based on sedimentology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and their isotopic composition, as well as diatom assemblages in the sedimentary records at two core sites, one located in the deeper central part of northernmost Baffin Bay and one in a separate trough closer to the Greenland coast. A revised chronology for the two records is established on the basis of 15 previously published AMS 14C age determinations. A basal diamicton is overlain by laminated, fossil-free sediments. Our data from the early part of the fossiliferous record (12 300 - 11 300 cal. yr BP), which is also initially laminated, indicate extensive seasonal sea-ice cover and brine release. There is indication of a cooling event between 11 300 and 10 900 cal. yr BP, and maximum Atlantic Water influence occurred between 10 900 and 8200 cal. yr BP (no sediment recovery between 8200 and 7300 cal. yr BP). A gradual, but fluctuating, increase in sea-ice cover is seen after 7300 cal. yr BP. Sea-ice diatoms were particularly abundant in the central part of northernmost Baffin Bay, presumably due to the inflow of Polar waters from the Arctic Ocean, and less sea ice occurred at the near-coastal site, which was under continuous influence of the West Greenland Current. Our data from the deep, central part show a fluctuating degree of upwelling after c. 7300 cal. yr BP, culminating between 4000 and 3050 cal. yr BP. There was a gradual increase in the influence of cold bottom waters from the Arctic Ocean after about 3050 cal. yr BP, when agglutinated foraminifera became abundant. A superimposed short-term change in the sea-surface proxies is correlated with the Little Ice Age cooling.

Nd, Sr and Sm isotopic composition and model ages of rocks from the Anginskaya and Talanchanskaya formations, Lake Baikal

The paper presents data on the Nd-Sr systematics of magmatic rocks of the Khaidaiskii Series of the Anginskaya Formation in the Ol'khon region, western Baikal area, and rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation on the eastern shore of Lake Baikal. Geochemical characteristics of these rocks are identical and testify to their arc provenance. At the same time, the epsilon(t)Nd of rocks of the Khaidaiskii Series in the Ol'khon area has positive values, and the data points of these rocks plot near the mantle succession line in the epsilon(t)Nd-87Sr/86Sr diagram, whereas the epsilon(t)Nd values of rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation are negative, and the data points of these rocks fall into the fourth quadrant in the epsilon(t)Nd -87Sr/86Sr diagram. This testifies to a mantle genesis of the parental magmas of the Khaidaiskii Series and to the significant involvement of older crustal material in the generation of the melts that produced the orthorocks on the eastern shore of the lake. These conclusions are corroborated by model ages of magmatic rocks in the Ol'khon area (close to 1 Ga) and of rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation (approximately 2 Ga). The comparison of our data with those obtained by other researchers on the Nd-Sr isotopic age of granulites of the Ol'khon Group and metavolcanics in various structural zones in the northern Baikal area suggests, with regard for the geochemistry of these rocks, the accretion of tectonic nappes that had different isotopic histories: some of them were derived from the mantle wedge and localized in the island arc itself (magmatic rocks of the Anginskaya Formation) or backarc spreading zone (mafic metamagmatic rocks of the Ol'khon Group), while others were partial melts derived, with the participation of crustal material, from sources of various age (metagraywackes in the backarc basin in the Ol'khon Group and the ensialic basement of the island arc in the Talanchanskaya Formation).

Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum - Supplementary material

Observation-based reconstructions of sea surface temperature from relatively stable periods in the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum, represent an important means of constraining climate sensitivity and evaluating model simulations. The first quantitative global reconstruction of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum was developed by the Climate Long-Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project in the 1970s and 1980s. Since that time, several shortcomings of that earlier effort have become apparent. Here we present an updated synthesis of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum, rigorously defined as the period between 23 and 19 thousand years before present, from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project. We integrate microfossil and geochemical reconstructions of surface temperatures and include assessments of the reliability of individual records. Our reconstruction reveals the presence of large longitudinal gradients in sea surface temperature in all of the ocean basins, in contrast to the simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate available at present.

Microcharcoal concentration and elongation, and age model of sediment core MD96-2098

Although grassland and savanna occupy only a quarter of the world's vegetation, burning in these ecosystems accounts for roughly half the global carbon emissions from fire. However, the processes that govern changes in grassland burning are poorly understood, particularly on time scales beyond satellite records. We analyzed microcharcoal, sediments, and geochemistry in a high-resolution marine sediment core off Namibia to identify the processes that have controlled biomass burning in southern African grassland ecosystems under large, multimillennial-scale climate changes. Six fire cycles occurred during the past 170,000 y in southern Africa that correspond both in timing and magnitude to the precessional forcing of north-south shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Contrary to the conventional expectation that fire increases with higher temperatures and increased drought, we found that wetter and cooler climates cause increased burning in the study region, owing to a shift in rainfall amount and seasonality (and thus vegetation flammability). We also show that charcoal morphology (i.e., the particle's length-to-width ratio) can be used to reconstruct changes in fire activity as well as biome shifts over time. Our results provide essential context for understanding current and future grassland-fire dynamics and their associated carbon emissions.

Supplementary material: XRF core scanning data, CaCO3 values, foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotope data, Mg/Ca data, clay mineralogy and helium isotope results

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 Ma) is associated with abrupt climate change, carbon cycle perturbation, ocean acidification, as well as biogeographic shifts in marine and terrestrial biota that were largely reversed as the climatic transient waned. We report a clear exception to the behavior of the PETM as a reversing climatic transient in the eastern North Atlantic (Deep-Sea Drilling Project Site 401, Bay of Biscay) where the PETM initiates a greatly prolonged environmental change compared to other places on Earth where records exist. The observed environmental perturbation extended well past the d13C recovery phase and up to 650 kyr after the PETM onset according to our extraterrestrial 3He-based age-model. We observe a strong decoupling of planktic foraminiferal d18O and Mg/Ca values during the PETM d13C recovery phase, which in combination with results from helium isotopes and clay mineralogy, suggests that the PETM triggered a hydrologic change in western Europe that increased freshwater flux and the delivery of weathering products to the eastern North Atlantic. This state change persisted long after the carbon-cycle perturbation had stopped. We hypothesize that either long-lived continental drainage patterns were altered by enhanced hydrological cycling induced by the PETM, or alternatively that the climate system in the hinterland area of Site 401 was forced into a new climate state that was not easily reversed in the aftermath of the PETM.

Lake Baikal amphipods under climate change: Thermal constraints and ecological consequences, links to supplementary material

Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.

Sedimentation rate, bulk density, accumulation rate of terrigenous material and grain sizes of ODP Leg 167 sites

The terrigenous mineral fraction of sediments recovered by drilling during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 167 at Sites 1018 and 1020 is used to evaluate changes in the source and transport of fine-grained terrigenous sediment and its relation to regional climates and the paleoceanographic evolution of the California Current system during the late Pleistocene. Preliminary time scales developed by correlation of oxygen isotope stratigraphies with the global SPECMAP record show average linear sedimentation rates in excess of 100 m/m.y., which provide an opportunity for high-resolution studies of terrigenous flux, grain size, and mineralogy. The mass flux of terrigenous minerals at Site 1018 varies from 5 to 30 g/(cm**2 x k.y.) and displays a general trend toward increased flux during glacials. The terrigenous record at Site 1020 shows a similar pattern of increased glacial input, but overall accumulation rates are significantly lower. Spectral analysis demonstrates that most of this variability is concentrated in frequency bands related to orbital cycles of eccentricity, tilt, and precession. Detailed grain-size analysis performed on the isolated terrigenous mineral fraction shows that sediments from Site 1018 are associated with higher energy transport and depositional regimes than those found at Site 1020. Grain-size data are remarkably uniform throughout the last 500 k.y., with no discernible difference observed between glacial and interglacial size distributions within each site. X-ray diffraction analysis of the <2-µm clay component suggests that the deposition of minerals found at Site 1020 is consistent with transport from a southern source during intervals of increased terrigenous input.

Age model, stable isotopes, major element proportions and endmember unmixing results from four western tropical Atlantic cores

We investigate changes in the delivery and oceanic transport of Amazon sediments related to terrestrial climate variations over the last 250 ka. We present high-resolution geochemical records from four marine sediment cores located between 5 and 12° N along the northern South American margin. The Amazon River is the sole source of terrigenous material for sites at 5 and 9° N, while the core at 12° N receives a mixture of Amazon and Orinoco detrital particles. Using an endmember unmixing model, we estimated the relative proportions of Amazon Andean material ("%-Andes", at 5 and 9° N) and of Amazon material ("%-Amazon", at 12° N) within the terrigenous fraction. The %-Andes and %-Amazon records exhibit significant precessional variations over the last 250 ka that are more pronounced during interglacials in comparison to glacial periods. High %-Andes values observed during periods of high austral summer insolation reflect the increased delivery of suspended sediments by Andean tributaries and enhanced Amazonian precipitation, in agreement with western Amazonian speleothem records. Increased Amazonian rainfall reflects the intensification of the South American monsoon in response to enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient and moisture convergence. However, low %-Amazon values obtained at 12° N during the same periods seem to contradict the increased delivery of Amazon sediments. We propose that reorganizations in surface ocean currents modulate the northwestward transport of Amazon material. In agreement with published records, the seasonal North Brazil Current retroflection is intensified (or prolonged in duration) during cold substages of the last 250 ka (which correspond to intervals of high DJF or low JJA insolation) and deflects eastward the Amazon sediment and freshwater plume.

Age model, raw data and interpolated raw data from proxy records of sediment cores GeoB6007-1 and GeoB6007-2

Here we present a 1200 yr long benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca based temperature and oxygen isotope record from a ~900 m deep sediment core off northwest Africa to show that atmosphere-ocean interactions in the eastern subpolar gyre are transferred at central water depth into the eastern boundary of the subtropical gyre. Further we link the variability of the NAO (over the past 165 yrs) and solar irradiance (Late Holocene) and their control on subpolar mode water formation to the multidecadal variability observed at mid-depth in the eastern subtropical gyre. Our results show that eastern North Atlantic central waters cooled by up to ~0.8± 0.7 °C and densities decreased by Sigma theta=0.3±0.2 during positive NAO years and during minima in solar irradiance during the Late Holocene. The presented records demonstrate the sensitivity of central water formation to enhanced atmospheric forcing and ice/freshwater fluxes into the eastern subpolar gyre and the importance of central water circulation for cross-gyre climate signal propagation during the Late Holocene.

Simulated Methyl iodide emission and concentration using the ocean biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC forced by OMIP data

Production pathways of the prominent volatile organic halogen compound methyl iodide (CH3I) are not fully understood. Based on observations, production of CH3I via photochemical degradation of organic material or via phytoplankton production has been proposed. Additional insights could not be gained from correlations between observed biological and environmental variables or from biogeochemical modeling to identify unambiguously the source of methyl iodide. In this study, we aim to address this question of source mechanisms with a three-dimensional global ocean general circulation model including biogeochemistry (MPIOM-HAMOCC (MPIOM - Max Planck Institute Ocean Model HAMOCC - HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model)) by carrying out a series of sensitivity experiments. The simulated fields are compared with a newly available global data set. Simulated distribution patterns and emissions of CH3I differ largely for the two different production pathways. The evaluation of our model results with observations shows that, on the global scale, observed surface concentrations of CH3I can be best explained by the photochemical production pathway. Our results further emphasize that correlations between CH3I and abiotic or biotic factors do not necessarily provide meaningful insights concerning the source of origin. Overall, we find a net global annual CH3I air-sea flux that ranges between 70 and 260 Gg/yr. On the global scale, the ocean acts as a net source of methyl iodide for the atmosphere, though in some regions in boreal winter, fluxes are of the opposite direction (from the atmosphere to the ocean).

Clay mineralogical assemblages, Sm-Nd concentrations, Sm and Nd isotopic ratios and oxygen isotope ratios, OIS number and the age model of ODP Site 105-646

We present 40 Sm-Nd isotope measurements of the clay-size (<2 µm) fractions of sediments from the Southern Greenland rise (ODP-646) that span the last 365 kyr. These data track changes in the relative supply of fine particles carried into the deep Labrador Sea by the Western Boundary Under Current (WBUC) back to the fourth glacial-interglacial cycles. Earlier studies revealed three general sources of particles to the core site: (i) Precambrian crustal material from Canada, Greenland, and/or Scandinavia (North American Shield - NAS), (ii) Palaeozoic or younger crustal material from East Greenland, NW Europe, and/or western Scandinavia (Young Crust - YC) and (iii) volcanic material from Iceland and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). Clay-size fractions from glacial sediments have the lowest Nd isotopic ratios. Supplies of young crustal particles were similar during glacial oxygen isotope stages (OIS) 2, 6, and 10. In contrast the mean volcanic contributions decreased relative to old craton material from OIS 10 to OIS 6 and then from OIS 6 to OIS 2. The glacial OIS 8 interval displays a mean Sm/Nd ratio similar to those of interglacials OIS 1, 5, and 9. Compared with other interglacials, OIS 7 was marked by a higher YC contribution but a similar ~30% MAR supply. The overall NAS contribution dropped by a factor of 2 during each glacial/interglacial transition, with the MAR contribution broadly replacing it during interglacials. To decipher between higher supplies and/or dilution, particle fluxes from each end member were estimated. Glacial NAS fluxes were systematically higher than interglacial fluxes. During the time interval examined, fine particle supplies to the Labrador Sea were strongly controlled by proximal ice-margin erosion and thus echoed the glacial stage intensity. In contrast, the WBUC-carried MAR supplies from the eastern basins did not change significantly throughout the last 365 kyr, except for a marked increase in surface-sediments that suggests unique modern conditions. Distal WBUC-controlled inputs from the Northern and NE North Atlantic seem to have been less variable than proximal supplies linked with glacial erosion rate.

Age determination and model of sediment core RAPiD-15-4P

Greenland ice core records indicate that the last deglaciation (~7-21 ka) was punctuated by numerous abrupt climate reversals involving temperature changes of up to 5°C-10°C within decades. However, the cause behind many of these events is uncertain. A likely candidate may have been the input of deglacial meltwater, from the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS), to the high-latitude North Atlantic, which disrupted ocean circulation and triggered cooling. Yet the direct evidence of meltwater input for many of these events has so far remained undetected. In this study, we use the geochemistry (paired Mg/Ca-d18O) of planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core south of Iceland to reconstruct the input of freshwater to the northern North Atlantic during abrupt deglacial climate change. Our record can be placed on the same timescale as ice cores and therefore provides a direct comparison between the timing of freshwater input and climate variability. Meltwater events coincide with the onset of numerous cold intervals, including the Older Dryas (14.0 ka), two events during the Allerød (at ~13.1 and 13.6 ka), the Younger Dryas (12.9 ka), and the 8.2 ka event, supporting a causal link between these abrupt climate changes and meltwater input. During the Bølling-Allerød warm interval, we find that periods of warming are associated with an increased meltwater flux to the northern North Atlantic, which in turn induces abrupt cooling, a cessation in meltwater input, and eventual climate recovery. This implies that feedback between climate and meltwater input produced a highly variable climate. A comparison to published data sets suggests that this feedback likely included fluctuations in the southern margin of the LIS causing rerouting of LIS meltwater between southern and eastern drainage outlets, as proposed by Clark et al. (2001, doi:10.1126/science.1062517).