Multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene sea surface temperatures, based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst

We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall, the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for benchmarking model simulations.

EPANET Input Files of New York tunnels and Pacific City used in a metamodel-based optimization study

Metamodels have proven be very useful when it comes to reducing the computational requirements of Evolutionary Algorithm-based optimization by acting as quick-solving surrogates for slow-solving fitness functions. The relationship between metamodel scope and objective function varies between applications, that is, in some cases the metamodel acts as a surrogate for the whole fitness function, whereas in other cases it replaces only a component of the fitness function. This paper presents a formalized qualitative process to evaluate a fitness function to determine the most suitable metamodel scope so as to increase the likelihood of calibrating a high-fidelity metamodel and hence obtain good optimization results in a reasonable amount of time. The process is applied to the risk-based optimization of water distribution systems; a very computationally-intensive problem for real-world systems. The process is validated with a simple case study (modified New York Tunnels) and the power of metamodelling is demonstrated on a real-world case study (Pacific City) with a computational speed-up of several orders of magnitude.

Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum - Supplementary material

Observation-based reconstructions of sea surface temperature from relatively stable periods in the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum, represent an important means of constraining climate sensitivity and evaluating model simulations. The first quantitative global reconstruction of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum was developed by the Climate Long-Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project in the 1970s and 1980s. Since that time, several shortcomings of that earlier effort have become apparent. Here we present an updated synthesis of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum, rigorously defined as the period between 23 and 19 thousand years before present, from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project. We integrate microfossil and geochemical reconstructions of surface temperatures and include assessments of the reliability of individual records. Our reconstruction reveals the presence of large longitudinal gradients in sea surface temperature in all of the ocean basins, in contrast to the simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate available at present.

Radiolarian-based paleotemperatures of ODP Site 177-1089 in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean

Two cores, Site 1089 (ODP Leg 177) and PS2821-1, recovered from the same location (40°56'S; 9°54'E) at the Subtropical Front (STF) in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean, provide a high-resolution climatic record, with an average temporal resolution of less than 600 yr. A multi-proxy approach was used to produce an age model for Core PS2821-1, and to correlate the two cores. Both cores document the last climatic cycle, from Marine Isotopic Stage 6 (MIS 6, ca. 160 kyr BP, ka) to present. Summer sea-surface temperatures (SSSTs) have been estimated, with a standard error of ca. +/-1.16°C, for the down core record by using Q-mode factor analysis (Imbrie and Kipp method). The paleotemperatures show a 7°C warming at Termination II (last interglacial, transition from MIS 6 to MIS 5). This transition from glacial to interglacial paleotemperatures (with maximum temperatures ca. 3°C warmer than present at the core location) occurs earlier than the corresponding shift in delta18O values for benthic foraminifera from the same core; this suggests a lead of Southern Ocean paleotemperature changes compared to the global ice-volume changes, as indicated by the benthic isotopic record. The climatic evolution of the record continues with a progressive temperature deterioration towards MIS 2. High-frequency, millennial-scale climatic instability has been documented for MIS 3 and part of MIS 4, with sudden temperature variations of almost the same magnitude as those observed at the transitions between glacial and interglacial times. These changes occur during the same time interval as the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles recognized in the delta18Oice record of the GRIP and GISP ice cores from Greenland, and seem to be connected to rapid changes in the STF position in relation to the core location. Sudden cooling episodes ('Younger Dryas (YD)-type' and 'Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR)-type' of events) have been recognized for both Termination I (ACR-I and YD-I events) and II (ACR-II and YD-II events), and imply that our core is located in an optimal position in order to record events triggered by phenomena occurring in both hemispheres. Spectral analysis of our SSST record displays strong analogies, particularly for high, sub-orbital frequencies, to equivalent records from Vostok (Antarctica) and from the Subtropical North Atlantic ocean. This implies that the climatic variability of widely separated areas (the Antarctic continent, the Subtropical North Atlantic, and the Subantarctic South Atlantic) can be strongly coupled and co-varying at millennial time scales (a few to 10-ka periods), and eventually induced by the same triggering mechanisms. Climatic variability has also been documented for supposedly warm and stable interglacial intervals (MIS 1 and 5), with several cold events which can be correlated to other Southern Ocean and North Atlantic sediment records.