10 resultados para linear calibration model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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The dataset contains measurements of river stage and discharge for one sites along the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River's northern tributary, with 30 minute temporal resolution between June 2008 and August 2013 This river is a tributary to the Watson River discharging into Kangerlussuaq Fjord by the town of Kangerlussuaq, Southwest Greenland. Additional data of water temperature, air pressure are also provided. Compared to version 1.0 of the dataset, this dataset used a total of 36 in situ discharge observations collected between 2008 and 2012 to construct the rating curve. Furthermore, data of Station AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 have been removed from version 2.0 because these values were likely caused by backflow when a jokulhlaup from a large glacier dammed lake caused increased water levels in the downstreams lake. Thus, data measured at AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 are not representative for the AK-004 catchment.

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A mid-Holocene climate optimum is inferred from a palaeosalinity reconstruction of a closed saline lake (Beall Lake) from the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica using an expanded diatom salinity weighted averaging (WA) regression and calibration model. The addition of 14 lakes and ponds from the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, to an existing weighted averaging regression and calibration palaeosalinity model of 33 lakes from the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica expands the number of taxa and lakes and the range of salinity in the existing model and improves the model's predictive ability. This improved model was used to infer Holocene changes in lake water salinity in Beall Lake, Windmill Islands. Six changes in diatom-inferred salinity in Beall Lake are put into broad chronological context based on three radiocarbon dates: as the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) retreated from the Windmill Islands during the early Holocene (~9000-8130 corr. yr BP), Beall Lake formed as a melt water-fed freshwater lake, which gradually became more saline as marine influence increased from ~8000 corr. yr BP. Between ~8000 and 4800 corr. yr BP, the diatom assemblage included planktonic marine taxa such as Chaetoceros spp. and cryophilic taxa such as Fragilariopsis cylindrus, which indicate favourable summer growth conditions. A mid-Holocene warm period produced a climate that was warmer and more humid with increased precipitation and snow accumulation. This is reflected in the Beall Lake core as a reduction in the salinity of the lake diatom assemblage from ~4800-4600 corr. yr BP. Holocene isostatic uplift rates in the Windmill Islands vary from 5-6 m/1000 yr. By applying this uplift rate, it is calculated that the bedrock would have risen above sea level by ~4000 yr BP. The Beall Lake core diatom assemblage from ~4600-2900 corr. yr BP includes both marine cryophilic and planktonic taxa together with freshwater benthic and planktonic lacustrine taxa. This mix of species indicates the emergence of the lake from the sea around ~4600 corr. yr BP. From ~2800 corr. yr BP, retreat of the ice margin led to increasing melt water inputs and associated freshening of the lake basin until ~1900 corr. yr BP. The lake basin had no oceanic influence by this time, allowing a terrestrial freshwater flora to establish and thrive for the next ~1000 yr. At ~1850 corr. yr BP, a sudden and rapid salinity change is evident in Beall Lake. A late Holocene warm period between 2000 and 1000 yr BP has been observed in ice core records from Law Dome (an ice cap abutting the Windmill Islands to the east and north). It is therefore inferred that, at ~1850 corr. yr BP, summer temperatures within the Beall Lake catchment area were much higher than present summer temperatures. The climate optimum identified in the Beall Lake core ~4800 yr BP confirms mid-Holocene warming of the Windmill Islands and suggests a synchronous mid-Holocene climate optimum occurred across coastal East Antarctica. In addition, the abrupt climate change inferred at ~1850 yr BP suggests that higher resolution sampling of sediment cores from coastal East Antarctic limnological oases will provide more evidence of rapid climate change events over coastal East Antarctica in future.

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Most of the Pb isotope data for the Leg 92 metalliferous sediments (carbonate-free fraction) form approximately linear arrays in the conventional isotopic plots, extending from the middle of the field for mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) toward the field for Mn nodules. These arrays are directed closely to the average values of Mn nodules, the composition of which reflects the Pb isotope composition of seawater (Reynolds and Dasch, 1971). Since the Leg 92 samples are almost devoid of continentally derived detritus, it can be inferred that the more radiogenic end-member is seawater. The less radiogenic end-member lies in the very middle of the MORB field, and hence can be considered to reflect the Pb isotope composition of typical ocean-ridge basalt. The array of data lying between these two end-members is most readily interpreted in terms of simple linear mixing of Pb from the two different end-member sources. According to this model, eight samples from Sites 599 to 601 contain 50 to 100% basaltic Pb. Five of these samples have compositions that are identical within the uncertainty of the analyses. We use the average of these five values to define our unradiogenic end-member in the linear mixing model. The ratios used for this average are 206Pb/204Pb = 18.425 ± 0.010; 207Pb/204Pb = 15.495 ± 0.018; 208Pb/204Pb = 37.879 ± 0.068. These values should approximate the average Pb isotope composition of discharging hydrothermal solutions, and therefore also that of the basaltic crust, over the period of time represented by these samples ( 4 m.y., from 4 to 8 Ma). Sr isotope ratios show a significant range of values, from 0.7082 to 0.7091. The lower ratios are well outside the value of 0.70910 ± 6 for modern-day seawater (Burke et al., 1982). However, most values correspond very closely to the curve of 87Sr/86Sr versus age for seawater, with older samples having progressively lower 87Sr/86Sr ratios. The simplest explanation for this progressive reduction is that recrystallization of the abundant biogenic carbonate in the sediments released older seawater Sr which was incorporated into ferromanganiferous phases during diagenesis. Leg 92 metalliferous sediments have total rare earth element (REE) contents that range on a carbonate-free basis from 131 to 301 ppm, with a clustering between 167 and 222 ppm. The patterns have strong negative Ce anomalies. Samples from Sites 599 to 601 display a slight but distinct enrichment in the heavy REE relative to the light REE, whereas those from Sites 597 to 598 show almost no heavy REE enrichment. The former patterns (those for Sites 599 to 601) are interpreted as indicating moderate diagenetic alteration of metalliferous sediments originating at the EPR axis; the latter reflect more complete diagenetic modification.

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Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

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Pressing scientific questions concerning the Greenland ice sheet's climatic sensitivity, hydrology, and contributions to current and future sea level rise require hydrological datasets to resolve. While direct observations of ice sheet meltwater losses can be obtained in terrestrial rivers draining the ice sheet and from lake levels, few such datasets exist. We present a new dataset of meltwater river discharge for the vicinity of Kangerlussuaq, Southwest Greenland. The dataset contains measurements of river stage and discharge for three sites along the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua (Watson) River's northern tributary, with 30 minute temporal resolution between June 2008 and August 2010. Additional data of water temperature, air pressure, and lake water depth and temperature are also provided. Discharge data were measured at sites with near-ideal properties for such data collection. Regardless, high water bedload and turbulent flow introduce considerable uncertainty. These were constrained and quantified using statistical techniques, thereby providing a high quality dataset from this important site. The greatest data uncertainties are associated with streambed elevation change and measurements. Large portions of stream channels deepened according to statistical tests, but poor precision of streambed depth measurements also added uncertainty. Quality checked data are freely available for scientific use as supplementary online material.

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Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.