8 resultados para latent growth curve modeling

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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We present a new mid-latitude speleothem record of millennial-scale climatic variability during OIS3 from the Villars Cave that, combined with former published contemporaneous samples from the same cave, gives a coherent image of the climate variability in SW-France between ~55 ka and ~30 ka. The 0.82 m long stalagmite Vil-stm27 was dated with 26 TIMS U-Th analyses and its growth curve displays variations that are linked with the stable isotopes, both controlled by the climatic conditions. It consists in a higher resolved replicate of the previously published Vil-stm9 and Vil-stm14 stalagmites where Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events have been observed. The good consistency between these three stalagmites and the comparison with other palaoeclimatic reconstructions, especially high resolution pollen records (ODP 976 from the Alboran Sea, Monticchio Lake record from southern Italy) and the nearby MD04-2845 Atlantic Ocean record, permits to draw a specific climatic pattern in SW-France during the OIS3 and to see regional differences between these sites. Main features of this period are: 1) warm events corresponding to Greenland Interstadials (GIS) that are characterized by low speleothem d13C, high temperate pollen percentages, warm temperatures and high humidity; among these events, GIS#12 is the most pronounced one at Villars characterized by an abrupt onset at ~46.6 ka and a duration of about 2.5 ka. The other well individualized warm event coincides with GIS#8 which is however much less pronounced and occurred during a cooler period as shown by a lower growth rate and a higher d13C; 2) cold events corresponding to Greenland Stadials (GS) that are clearly characterized by high speleothem d13C, low temperate pollen abundance, low temperature and enhanced dryness, particularly well expressed during GS coinciding with Heinrich events H5 and H4. The main feature of the Villars record is a general cooling trend between the DO#12 event ~45.5 ka and the synchronous stop of the three stalagmites at ~30 ka ±1, with a first well marked climatic threshold at ~41 ka after which the growth rate and the diameter of all stalagmites slows down significantly. This climatic evolution differs from that shown at southern Mediterranean sites where this trend is not observed. The ~30 ka age marks the second climatic threshold after which low temperatures and low rainfalls prevent speleothem growth in the Villars area until the Lateglacial warming that occurred at ~16.5 ± 0.5 ka. This 15 ka long hiatus, as the older Villars growth hiatus that occurred between 67.4 and 61 ka, are linked to low sea levels, reduced ocean circulation and a southward shift of the Polar Front that likely provoked local permafrost formation. These cold periods coincide with both low summer 65°N insolation, low atmospheric CO2 concentration and large ice sheets development (especially the Fennoscandian).

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Uptake of half of the fossil fuel CO2 into the ocean causes gradual seawater acidification. This has been shown to slow down calcification of major calcifying groups, such as corals, foraminifera, and coccolithophores. Here we show that two of the most productive marine calcifying species, the coccolithophores Coccolithus pelagicus and Calcidiscus leptoporus, do not follow the CO2-related calcification response previously found. In batch culture experiments, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) of C. leptoporus changes with increasing CO2 concentration in a nonlinear relationship. A PIC optimum curve is obtained, with a maximum value at present-day surface ocean pCO2 levels (?360 ppm CO2). With particulate organic carbon (POC) remaining constant over the range of CO2 concentrations, the PIC/POC ratio also shows an optimum curve. In the C. pelagicus cultures, neither PIC nor POC changes significantly over the CO2 range tested, yielding a stable PIC/POC ratio. Since growth rate in both species did not change with pCO2, POC and PIC production show the same pattern as POC and PIC. The two investigated species respond differently to changes in the seawater carbonate chemistry, highlighting the need to consider species-specific effects when evaluating whole ecosystem responses. Changes of calcification rate (PIC production) were highly correlated to changes in coccolith morphology. Since our experimental results suggest altered coccolith morphology (at least in the case of C. leptoporus) in the geological past, coccoliths originating from sedimentary records of periods with different CO2 levels were analyzed. Analysis of sediment samples was performed on six cores obtained from locations well above the lysocline and covering a range of latitudes throughout the Atlantic Ocean. Scanning electron micrograph analysis of coccolith morphologies did not reveal any evidence for significant numbers of incomplete or malformed coccoliths of C. pelagicus and C. leptoporus in last glacial maximum and Holocene sediments. The discrepancy between experimental and geological results might be explained by adaptation to changing carbonate chemistry.

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Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to impact pelagic ecosystem functioning in the near future by driving ocean warming and acidification. While numerous studies have investigated impacts of rising temperature and seawater acidification on planktonic organisms separately, little is presently known on their combined effects. To test for possible synergistic effects we exposed two coccolithophore species, Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica, to a CO2 gradient ranging from ~0.5-250 µmol/kg (i.e. ~20-6000 µatm pCO2) at three different temperatures (i.e. 10, 15, 20°C for E. huxleyi and 15, 20, 25°C for G. oceanica). Both species showed CO2-dependent optimum-curve responses for growth, photosynthesis and calcification rates at all temperatures. Increased temperature generally enhanced growth and production rates and modified sensitivities of metabolic processes to increasing CO2. CO2 optimum concentrations for growth, calcification, and organic carbon fixation rates were only marginally influenced from low to intermediate temperatures. However, there was a clear optimum shift towards higher CO2 concentrations from intermediate to high temperatures in both species. Our results demonstrate that the CO2 concentration where optimum growth, calcification and carbon fixation rates occur is modulated by temperature. Thus, the response of a coccolithophore strain to ocean acidification at a given temperature can be negative, neutral or positive depending on that strain's temperature optimum. This emphasizes that the cellular responses of coccolithophores to ocean acidification can only be judged accurately when interpreted in the proper eco-physiological context of a given strain or species. Addressing the synergistic effects of changing carbonate chemistry and temperature is an essential step when assessing the success of coccolithophores in the future ocean.

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Reflecting the natural biology of mass spawning fish aquaculture production of fish larvae is often hampered by high and unpredictable mortality rates. The present study aimed to enhance larval performance and immunity via the oral administration of an immunomodulator, beta-glucan (MacroGard®) in turbot (Scophthalmus maximus). Rotifers (Brachionus plicatilis) were incubated with or without yeast beta-1,3/1,6-glucan in form of MacroGard® at a concentration of 0.5 g/L. Rotifers were fed to first feeding turbot larvae once a day. From day 13 dph onwards all tanks were additionally fed untreated Artemia sp. nauplii (1 nauplius ml/L). Daily mortality was monitored and larvae were sampled at 11 and 24 dph for expression of 30 genes, trypsin activity and size measurements. Along with the feeding of beta-glucan daily mortality was significantly reduced by ca. 15% and an alteration of the larval microbiota was observed. At 11 dph gene expression of trypsin and chymotrypsin was elevated in the MacroGard® fed fish, which resulted in heightened tryptic enzyme activity. No effect on genes encoding antioxidative proteins was observed, whilst the immune response was clearly modulated by beta-glucan. At 11 dph complement component c3 was elevated whilst cytokines, antimicrobial peptides, toll like receptor 3 and heat shock protein 70 were not affected. At the later time point (24 dph) an anti-inflammatory effect in form of a down-regulation of hsp 70, tnf-alpha and il-1beta was observed. We conclude that the administration of beta-glucan induced an immunomodulatory response and could be used as an effective measure to increase survival in rearing of turbot.

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Seagrass is expected to benefit from increased carbon availability under future ocean acidification. This hypothesis has been little tested by in situ manipulation. To test for ocean acidification effects on seagrass meadows under controlled CO2/pH conditions, we used a Free Ocean Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FOCE) system which allows for the manipulation of pH as continuous offset from ambient. It was deployed in a Posidonia oceanica meadow at 11 m depth in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. It consisted of two benthic enclosures, an experimental and a control unit both 1.7 m**3, and an additional reference plot in the ambient environment (2 m**2) to account for structural artifacts. The meadow was monitored from April to November 2014. The pH of the experimental enclosure was lowered by 0.26 pH units for the second half of the 8-month study. The greatest magnitude of change in P. oceanica leaf biometrics, photosynthesis, and leaf growth accompanied seasonal changes recorded in the environment and values were similar between the two enclosures. Leaf thickness may change in response to lower pH but this requires further testing. Results are congruent with other short-term and natural studies that have investigated the response of P. oceanica over a wide range of pH. They suggest any benefit from ocean acidification, over the next century (at a pH of 7.7 on the total scale), on Posidonia physiology and growth may be minimal and difficult to detect without increased replication or longer experimental duration. The limited stimulation, which did not surpass any enclosure or seasonal effect, casts doubts on speculations that elevated CO2 would confer resistance to thermal stress and increase the buffering capacity of meadows.

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Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

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The combination of elevated CO2 and the increased acidity in surface oceans is likely to have an impact on photosynthesis via its effects on inorganic carbon speciation and on the overall energetics of phytoplankton. Exposure to UV radiation (UVR) may also have a role in the response to elevated CO2 and acidification, due to the fact that UVR may variously impact on photosynthesis and because of the energy demand of UVR defense. The cell may gain energy by down-regulating the CO2 concentrating mechanism, which may lead to a greater ability to cope with UVR and/or higher growth rates. In order to clarify the interplay of cell responses to increasing CO2 and UVR, we investigated the photosynthetic response of the marine and estuarine diatom Cylindrotheca closterium f. minutissima cultured at either 390 (ambient) or 800 (elevated) ppmv CO2, while exposed to solar radiation with or without UVR (UVR, 280-400 nm). After a 6 day acclimation period, the growth rate of cells was little affected by elevated CO2 and no obvious correlation with the radiation dose (for both PAR and PAR + UV treatments) could be detected. However, the relative electron transport rate was reduced and was more sensitive to UVR in cells main - tained at elevated CO2 as compared to cells cultured at ambient CO2. The CO2 concentrating mechanism was down regulated at 800 ppmv CO2, but was apparently not completely switched off. These data are discussed with respect to their significance in the context of global climate change.