Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Pigment, carbohydrate and protein content of microbial mats from northern Victoria Land lake sediments

The composition of algal pigments and extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) was determined in microbial mats from two lakes in Victoria Land (Continental Antarctica) with different lithology and environmental features. The aim was to expand knowledge of benthic autotrophic communities in Antarctic lacustrine ecosystems, providing reference data for future assessment of possible changes in environmental conditions and freshwater communities. The results of chemical analyses were supported by microscopy observations. Pigment profiles showed that filamentous cyanobacteria are dominant in both lakes. Samples from the water body at Edmonson Point had greater biodiversity, fewer pigments and lower EPS ratios than those from the lake at Kar Plateau. Differences in mat composition and in pigment and EPS profile between the two lakes are discussed in terms of local environmental conditions such as lithology, ice-cover and UV radiation. The present study suggests that a chemical approach could be useful in the study of benthic communities in Antarctic lakes and their variations in space and time.

Time-series of seagrass and land cover maps from 1972 to 2010, in South East Queensland, Australia, with links to GeoTIFFs

Long term global archives of high-moderate spatial resolution, multi-spectral satellite imagery are now readily accessible, but are not being fully utilised by management agencies due to the lack of appropriate methods to consistently produce accurate and timely management ready information. This work developed an object-based remote sensing approach to map land cover and seagrass distribution in an Australian coastal environment for a 38 year Landsat image time-series archive (1972-2010). Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) imagery were used without in situ field data input (but still using field knowledge) to produce land and seagrass cover maps every year data were available, resulting in over 60 map products over the 38 year archive. Land cover was mapped annually using vegetation, bare ground, urban and agricultural classes. Seagrass distribution was also mapped annually, and in some years monthly, via horizontal projected foliage cover classes, sand and deep water. Land cover products were validated using aerial photography and seagrass maps were validated with field survey data, producing several measures of accuracy. An average overall accuracy of 65% and 80% was reported for seagrass and land cover products respectively, which is consistent with other studies in the area. This study is the first to show moderate spatial resolution, long term annual changes in land cover and seagrass in an Australian environment, created without the use of in situ data; and only one of a few similar studies globally. The land cover products identify several long term trends; such as significant increases in South East Queensland's urban density and extent, vegetation clearing in rural and rural-residential areas, and inter-annual variation in dry vegetation types in western South East Queensland. The seagrass cover products show that there has been a minimal overall change in seagrass extent, but that seagrass cover level distribution is extremely dynamic; evidenced by large scale migrations of higher seagrass cover levels and several sudden and significant changes in cover level. These mapping products will allow management agencies to build a baseline assessment of their resources, understand past changes and help inform implementation and planning of management policy to address potential future changes.

The Lena River Delta - Land cover classification of tundra environments based on Landsat 7 ETM+ data and its application for upscaling of methane emissions

The Lena River Delta, situated in Northern Siberia (72.0 - 73.8° N, 122.0 - 129.5° E), is the largest Arctic delta and covers 29,000 km**2. Since natural deltas are characterised by complex geomorphological patterns and various types of ecosystems, high spatial resolution information on the distribution and extent of the delta environments is necessary for a spatial assessment and accurate quantification of biogeochemical processes as drivers for the emission of greenhouse gases from tundra soils. In this study, the first land cover classification for the entire Lena Delta based on Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images was conducted and used for the quantification of methane emissions from the delta ecosystems on the regional scale. The applied supervised minimum distance classification was very effective with the few ancillary data that were available for training site selection. Nine land cover classes of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the wetland dominated (72%) Lena Delta could be defined by this classification approach. The mean daily methane emission of the entire Lena Delta was calculated with 10.35 mg CH4/m**2/d. Taking our multi-scale approach into account we find that the methane source strength of certain tundra wetland types is lower than calculated previously on coarser scales.

Projections for Land Use Change in Brazil:2000-2050, links to files in ArcGIS shapefile format

This data set contains the inputs and the results of the REDD+ Policy Assessment Centre project (REDD-PAC) project (http://www.redd-pac.org), developed by a consortium of research institutes (IIASA, INPE, IPEA, UNEP-WCMC), supported by Germany's International Climate Initiative. Taking a new land use map of Brazil for 2000 as input, the research team used the global economic model GLOBIOM to project land use changes in Brazil up to 2050. Model projections show that Brazil has the potential to balance its goals of protecting the environment and becoming a major global producer of food and biofuels. The model results were taken into account by Brazilian decision-makers when developing the country's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC).