14 resultados para integrated simulation model
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
SIMBAA is a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model. It was developed to analyse the response of populations of Antarctic benthic species and their diversity to iceberg scouring. This disturbance is causing a high local mortality providing potential space for new colonisation. Traits can be attributed to model species, e.g. in terms of reproduction, dispersal, and life span. Physical disturbances can be designed in space and time, e.g. in terms of size, shape, and frequency. Environmental heterogeneity can be considered by cell-specific capacities to host a certain number of individuals. When grid cells become empty (after a disturbance event or due to natural mortality of of an individual), a lottery decides which individual from which species stored in a pool of candidates (for this cell) will recruit in that cell. After a defined period the individuals become mature and their offspring are dispersed and stored in the pool of candidates. The biological parameters and disturbance regimes decide on how long an individual lives. Temporal development of single populations of species as well as Shannon diversity are depicted in the main window graphically and primary values are listed. Examples for simulations can be loaded and saved as sgf-files. The results are also shown in an additional window in a dimensionless area with 50 x 50 cells, which contain single individuals depicted as circles; their colour indicates the assignment to the self-designed model species and the size represents their age. Dominant species per cell and disturbed areas can also be depicted. Output of simulation runs can be saved as images, which can be assembled to video-clips by standard computer programs (see GIF-examples of which "Demo 1" represents the response of the Antarctic benthos to iceberg scouring and "Demo 2" represents a simulation of a deep-sea benthic habitat).
Resumo:
Late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian)-Quaternary summary biostratigraphies are presented for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 189 Sites 1168 (West Tasmanian Margin), 1170 and 1171 (South Tasman Rise), and 1172 (East Tasman Plateau). The age models are calibrated to magnetostratigraphy and integrate both calcareous (planktonic foraminifers and nannofossils) and siliceous (diatoms and radiolarians) microfossil groups with organic walled microfossils (organic walled dinoflagellate cysts, or dinocysts). We also incorporate benthic oxygen isotope stratigraphies into the upper Quaternary parts of the age models for further control. The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary age-depth model for all deep-penetrating sites of Leg 189 incorporating updated shipboard biostratigraphic data with new information obtained during the 3 yr since the cruise. In this respect we provide a report of work to November 2003, not a final synthesis of the biomagnetostratigraphy of Leg 189, yet we present the most complete integrated age model for these sites at this time. Detailed information of the stratigraphy of individual fossil groups, paleomagnetism, and isotope data are presented elsewhere. Ongoing efforts aim toward further integration of age information for Leg 189 sites and will include an attempt to correlate zonation schemes for all the major microfossil groups and detailed correlation between all sites.
Resumo:
The Benguela Current, located off the west coast of southern Africa, is tied to a highly productive upwelling system**1. Over the past 12 million years, the current has cooled, and upwelling has intensified**2, 3, 4. These changes have been variously linked to atmospheric and oceanic changes associated with the glaciation of Antarctica and global cooling**5, the closure of the Central American Seaway**1, 6 or the further restriction of the Indonesian Seaway**3. The upwelling intensification also occurred during a period of substantial uplift of the African continent**7, 8. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to test the effect of African uplift on Benguela upwelling. In our simulations, uplift in the East African Rift system and in southern and southwestern Africa induces an intensification of coastal low-level winds, which leads to increased oceanic upwelling of cool subsurface waters. We compare the effect of African uplift with the simulated impact of the Central American Seaway closure9, Indonesian Throughflow restriction10 and Antarctic glaciation**11, and find that African uplift has at least an equally strong influence as each of the three other factors. We therefore conclude that African uplift was an important factor in driving the cooling and strengthening of the Benguela Current and coastal upwelling during the late Miocene and Pliocene epochs.
Resumo:
State-of-the-art process-based models have shown to be applicable to the simulation and prediction of coastal morphodynamics. On annual to decadal temporal scales, these models may show limitations in reproducing complex natural morphological evolution patterns, such as the movement of bars and tidal channels, e.g. the observed decadal migration of the Medem Channel in the Elbe Estuary, German Bight. Here a morphodynamic model is shown to simulate the hydrodynamics and sediment budgets of the domain to some extent, but fails to adequately reproduce the pronounced channel migration, due to the insufficient implementation of bank erosion processes. In order to allow for long-term simulations of the domain, a nudging method has been introduced to update the model-predicted bathymetries with observations. The model-predicted bathymetry is nudged towards true states in annual time steps. Sensitivity analysis of a user-defined correlation length scale, for the definition of the background error covariance matrix during the nudging procedure, suggests that the optimal error correlation length is similar to the grid cell size, here 80-90 m. Additionally, spatially heterogeneous correlation lengths produce more realistic channel depths than do spatially homogeneous correlation lengths. Consecutive application of the nudging method compensates for the (stand-alone) model prediction errors and corrects the channel migration pattern, with a Brier skill score of 0.78. The proposed nudging method in this study serves as an analytical approach to update model predictions towards a predefined 'true' state for the spatiotemporal interpolation of incomplete morphological data in long-term simulations.