Alpine permafrost index map

The objective of this study is the production of an Alpine Permafrost Index Map (APIM) covering the entire European Alps. A unified statistical model that is based on Alpine-wide permafrost observations is used for debris and bedrock surfaces across the entire Alps. The explanatory variables of the model are mean annual air temperatures, potential incoming solar radiation and precipitation. Offset terms were applied to make model predictions for topographic and geomorphic conditions that differ from the terrain features used for model fitting. These offsets are based on literature review and involve some degree of subjective choice during model building. The assessment of the APIM is challenging because limited independent test data are available for comparison and these observations represent point information in a spatially highly variable topography. The APIM provides an index that describes the spatial distribution of permafrost and comes together with an interpretation key that helps to assess map uncertainties and to relate map contents to their actual expression in terrain. The map can be used as a first resource to estimate permafrost conditions at any given location in the European Alps in a variety of contexts such as research and spatial planning. Results show that Switzerland likely is the country with the largest permafrost area in the Alps, followed by Italy, Austria, France and Germany. Slovenia and Liechtenstein may have marginal permafrost areas. In all countries the permafrost area is expected to be larger than the glacier-covered area.

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

X-ray fluorescence scanning of discrete samples on the Schwalbenberg II loess-paleosol sequence, raw data, magnetic susceptibility, organic carbon and U-ratio as grainsize index

The Schwalbenberg II loess-paleosol sequence (LPS) denotes a key site for Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 3) in Western Europe owing to eight succeeding cambisols, which primarily constitute the Ahrgau Subformation. Therefore, this LPS qualifies as a test candidate for the potential of temporal high-resolution geochemical data obtained X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning of discrete samplesproviding a fast and non-destructive tool for determining the element composition. The geochemical data is first contextualized to existing proxy data such as magnetic susceptibility (MS) and organic carbon (Corg) and then aggregated to element log ratios characteristic for weathering intensity [LOG (Ca/Sr), LOG (Rb/Sr), LOG (Ba/Sr), LOG (Rb/K)] and dust provenance [LOG (Ti/Zr), LOG (Ti/Al), LOG (Si/Al)]. Generally, an interpretation of rock magnetic particles is challenged in western Europe, where not only magnetic enhancement but also depletion plays a role. Our data indicates leaching and top-soil erosion induced MS depletion at the Schwalbenberg II LPS. Besides weathering, LOG (Ca/Sr) is susceptible for secondary calcification. Thus, also LOG (Rb/Sr) and LOG (Ba/Sr) are shown to be influenced by calcification dynamics. Consequently, LOG (Rb/K) seems to be the most suitable weathering index identifying the Sinzig Soils S1 and S2 as the most pronounced paleosols for this site. Sinzig Soil S3 is enclosed by gelic gleysols and in contrast to S1 and S2 only initially weathered pointing to colder climate conditions. Also the Remagen Soils are characterized by subtle to moderate positive excursions in the weathering indices. Comparing the Schwalbenberg II LPS with the nearby Eifel Lake Sediment Archive (ELSA) and other more distant German, Austrian and Czech LPS while discussing time and climate as limiting factors for pedogenesis, we suggest that the lithologically determined paleosols are in-situ soil formations. The provenance indices document a Zr-enrichment at the transition from the Ahrgau to the Hesbaye Subformation. This is explained by a conceptual model incorporating multiple sediment recycling and sorting effects in eolian and fluvial domains.

Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Proxy data and model simulations of sediment core GeoB7920-2

The evolution of the northwest African hydrological balance throughout the Pleistocene epoch influenced the migration of prehistoric humans**1. The hydrological balance is also thought to be important to global teleconnection mechanisms during Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events**2. However, most high-resolution African climate records do not span the millennial-scale climate changes of the last glacial-interglacial cycle**1, 3, 4, 5, or lack an accurate chronology**6. Here, we use grain-size analyses of siliciclastic marine sediments from off the coast of Mauritania to reconstruct changes in northwest African humidity over the past 120,000 years. We compare this reconstruction to simulations of palaeo-humidity from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model. These records are in good agreement, and indicate the reoccurrence of precession-forced humid periods during the last interglacial period similar to the Holocene African Humid Period. We suggest that millennial-scale arid events are associated with a reduction of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and that millennial-scale humid events are linked to a regional increase of winter rainfall over the coastal regions of northwest Africa.

Foraminiferal abundance, carbonat concentration and dissolution index of sediment core W9903B-51GC

In order to investigate the paleoceanographic record of dissolution of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, we have studied the relationship between three indices of foraminiferal dissolution and the concentration and accumulation of CaCO3, opal, and Corg in Core WEC8803B-GC51 (1.3°N, 133.6°W; 4410 m). This core spans the past 413 kyr of deposition and moved in and out of the lysoclinal transition zone during glacial-interglacial cycles of CaCO3 production and dissolution. The record of dissolution intensity provided by foraminiferal fragmentation, the proportion of benthic foraminifera, and the foraminiferal dissolution index consistently indicates that the past corrosion of pelagic CaCO3 in the central equatorial Pacific does not vary with the observed sedimentary concentration of CaCO3. Although there is a weak low-frequency variation (~100 kyr) in dissolution intensity, it is unrelated to sedimentary CaCO3 concentration. There are many shorter-lived episodes where high CaCO3 concentration is coincident with poor foraminiferal preservation, and where, conversely, low CaCO3 concentration is coincident with superb foraminiferal preservation. Spectral analyses indicate that dissolution maxima consistently lagged glacial maxima (manifest by the SPECMAP delta18O stack) in the 100-kyr orbital band. Additionally, there is no relationship between dissolution and the accumulation of biogenic opal or Corg or between dissolution and the burial ratio of Corg/CINorg (calculated from Corg and CaCO3). Because previous studies of this core strongly suggest that surface water productivity varied closely with CaCO3 accumulation, both the mechanistic decoupling of carbonate dissolution from CaCO3 concentration (and from biogenic accumulation) and the substantial phase shift between dissolution and global glacial periodicity effectively obscure any simple link between export production, CaCO3 concentration, and dissolution of sedimentary CaCO3.

Global LAI uncertainty and relative uncertainty datasets derived from a Triple Collocation Error Model (TCEM)

Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.

Age model, lipids, and iron/calcium-ratios of sediment core GeoB9307-3

Hide Intense debate persists about the climatic mechanisms governing hydrologic changes in tropical and subtropical southeast Africa since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20,000 years ago. In particular, the relative importance of atmospheric and oceanic processes is not firmly established. Southward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) driven by high-latitude climate changes have been suggested as a primary forcing, whereas other studies infer a predominant influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures on regional rainfall changes. To address this question, a continuous record representing an integrated signal of regional climate variability is required, but has until now been missing. Here we show that remote atmospheric forcing by cold events in the northern high latitudes appears to have been the main driver of hydro-climatology in southeast Africa during rapid climate changes over the past 17,000 years. Our results are based on a reconstruction of precipitation and river discharge changes, as recorded in a marine sediment core off the mouth of the Zambezi River, near the southern boundary of the modern seasonal ITCZ migration. Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures did not exert a primary control over southeast African hydrologic variability. Instead, phases of high precipitation and terrestrial discharge occurred when the ITCZ was forced southwards during Northern Hemisphere cold events, such as Heinrich stadial 1 (around 16,000 years ago) and the Younger Dryas (around 12,000 years ago), or when local summer insolation was high in the late Holocene, i.e., during the last 4,000 years.