Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

(Table 1) Spacing of diatom abundance index and opal index at ODP Site 175-1084

An important discovery during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175, when investigating the record of upwelling off Namibia, was the finding of a distinct Late Pliocene diatom maximum spanning the lower half of the Matuyama reversed polarity chron (MDM, Matuyama Diatom Maximum) and centered around 2.6-2.0 Ma. This maximum was observed at all sites off southwestern Africa between 20°S and 30°S, and is most strongly represented in sediments of Site 1084, off Lüderitz, Namibia. The MDM is characterized by high biogenic opal content, high numbers of diatom valves, and a diatom flora rich in Southern Ocean representatives (with Thalassiothrix antarctica forming diatom mats) as well as coastal upwelling components. Before MDM time, diatoms are rare until ca. 3.6 Ma. After the MDM, in the Pleistocene, the composition of the diatom flora points to increased importance of coastal upwelling toward the present, but is accompanied by a general decrease in opal and diatom deposition. Here we present a simple conceptual model as a first step in formalizing a possible forcing mechanism responsible for the record of opal deposition in the upwelling system off Namibia. The model takes into account Southern Ocean oceanography, and a link with deepwater circulation and deepwater nutrient chemistry which, in turn, are coupled to the evolution of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The model proposes that between the MDM and the Mid-Pleistocene climate revolution, opal deposition off Namibia is not directly tied to glacial-interglacial fluctuations (as seen in the global d18O record), but that, instead, a strong deepwater link exists with increased NADW production (as seen in the deepwater d13C record) accounting for higher supply of silicate to the thermocline waters that feed the upwelling process. The opal record of Site 1084 shows affinity to eccentricity on the 400-kyr scale but not for the 100-kyr scale. This points toward long-term geologic processes for delivery of silica to the ocean.

Dissolution index of Globigerina bulloides in recent and Last Glacial Maximum sediments

The modern Atlantic Ocean, dominated by the interactions of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), plays a key role in redistributing heat from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere. In order to reconstruct the evolution of the relative importance of these two water masses, the NADW/AABW transition, reflected by the calcite lysocline, was investigated by the Globigerina bulloides dissolution index (BDX?). The depth level of the Late Glacial Maximum (LGM) calcite lysocline was elevated by several hundred metres, indicating a more corrosive water mass present at modern NADW level. Overall, the small range of BDX? data and the gradual decrease in preservation below the calcite lysocline point to a less stratified Atlantic Ocean during the LGM. Similar preservation patterns in the West and East Atlantic demonstrate that the modern west-east asymmetry did not exist due to an expansion of southern deep waters compensating for the decrease in NADW formation.