21 resultados para high-low spread estimator

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

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A marine sediment core from the leeward margin of Great Bahama Bank (GBB) was subjected to a multiproxy study. The aragonite dominated core MD992201 comprises the past 7230 years in a decadal time resolution and shows sedimentation rates of up to 13.8 m/kyr. Aragonite mass accumulation rates, age differences between planktonic foraminifera and aragonite sediments, and temperature distribution are used to deduce changes in aragonite production rates and paleocurrent strengths. Aragonite precipitation rates on GBB are controlled by exchange of carbonate ions and CO2 loss due to temperature-salinity conditions and biological activity, and these are dependent on the current strength. Paleocurrent strengths on GBB show high current velocities during the periods 6000-5100 years BP, 3500-2700 years BP, and 1600-700 years BP; lower current speeds existed during the time intervals 5100-3500 years BP, 2700-1600 years BP, and 700-100 years BP. Bahamian surface currents are directly linked to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation, and thus periods with high (low) current speeds are proposed to be phases of strong (weak) atmospheric circulation.

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The Shelf Seas of the Arctic are known for their large sea-ice production. This paper presents a comprehensive view of the Kara Sea sea-ice cover from high-resolution numerical modeling and space-borne microwave radiometry. As given by the latter the average polynya area in the Kara Sea takes a value of 21.2 × 10**3 km**2 ± 9.1 × 10**3 km**2 for winters (Jan.-Apr.) 1996/97 to 2000/01, being as high as 32.0 × 10**3 km**2 in 1999/2000 and below 12 × 10**3 km**2 in 1998/99. Day-to-day variations of the Kara Sea polynya area can be as high as 50 × 10**3 km**2. For the seasons 1996/97 to 2000/01 the modeled cumulative winter ice-volume flux out of the Kara Sea varied between 100 km**3/a and 350 km**3/a. Modeled high (low) ice export coincides with a high (low) average and cumulative polynya area, and with a low (high) sea-ice compactness in the Kara Sea from remote sensing data, and with a high (low) sea-ice drift speed across its northern boundary derived from independent model data for the winters 1996/97 to 2000/01.

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The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

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A prominent control on the flow over subaqueous dunes is the slope of the downstream leeside. While previous work has focused on steep (~30°), asymmetric dunes with permanent flow separation, little is known about dunes with lower lee-slope angles for which flow separation is absent or intermittent. Here, we present a laboratory investigation where we systematically varied the dune lee-slope, holding other geometric parameters and flow hydraulics constant, to explore effects on the turbulent flow field and flow resistance. Three sets of fixed dunes (lee-slopes of 10°, 20° and 30°) were separately installed in a 15 m long and 1 m wide flume and subjected to 0.20 m deep flow. Measurements consisted of high-frequency, vertical profiles collected with a Laser Doppler Velocimeter (LDV). We show that the temporal and spatial occurrence of flow separation decreases with dune lee-slope. Velocity gradients in the dune leeside depict a free shear layer downstream of the 30° dunes and a weaker shear layer closer to the bed for the 20° and 10° dunes. The decrease in velocity gradients leads to lower magnitude of turbulence production for gentle lee-slopes. Aperiodic, strong ejection events dominate the shear layer, but decrease in strength and frequency for low-angle dunes. Flow resistance of dunes decreases with lee-slope; the transition being non-linear. Over the 10°, 20° and 30° dunes, shear stress is 8%, 33% and 90 % greater than a flat bed, respectively. Our results demonstrate that dune lee-slope plays an important, but often ignored role in flow resistance.

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The climate during the Cenozoic era changed in several steps from ice-free poles and warm conditions to ice-covered poles and cold conditions. Since the 1950s, a body of information on ice volume and temperature changes has been built up predominantly on the basis of measurements of the oxygen isotopic composition of shells of benthic foraminifera collected from marine sediment cores. The statistical methodology of time series analysis has also evolved, allowing more information to be extracted from these records. Here we provide a comprehensive view of Cenozoic climate evolution by means of a coherent and systematic application of time series analytical tools to each record from a compilation spanning the interval from 4 to 61 Myr ago. We quantitatively describe several prominent features of the oxygen isotope record, taking into account the various sources of uncertainty (including measurement, proxy noise, and dating errors). The estimated transition times and amplitudes allow us to assess causal climatological-tectonic influences on the following known features of the Cenozoic oxygen isotopic record: Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Eocene-Oligocene Transition, Oligocene-Miocene Boundary, and the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. We further describe and causally interpret the following features: Paleocene-Eocene warming trend, the two-step, long-term Eocene cooling, and the changes within the most recent interval (Miocene-Pliocene). We review the scope and methods of constructing Cenozoic stacks of benthic oxygen isotope records and present two new latitudinal stacks, which capture besides global ice volume also bottom water temperatures at low (less than 30°) and high latitudes. This review concludes with an identification of future directions for data collection, statistical method development, and climate modeling.

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The emergence of ocean acidification as a significant threat to calcifying organisms in marine ecosystems creates a pressing need to understand the physiological and molecular mechanisms by which calcification is affected by environmental parameters. We report here, for the first time, changes in gene expression induced by variations in pH/pCO2 in the widespread and abundant coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi. Batch cultures were subjected to increased partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2; i.e. decreased pH), and the changes in expression of four functional gene classes directly or indirectly related to calcification were investigated. Increased pCO2 did not affect the calcification rate and only carbonic anhydrase transcripts exhibited a significant down-regulation. Our observation that elevated pCO2 induces only limited changes in the transcription of several transporters of calcium and bicarbonate gives new significant elements to understand cellular mechanisms underlying the early response of E. huxleyi to CO2-driven ocean acidification.

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Environmental transitions leading to spatial physical-chemical gradients are of ecological and evolutionary interest because they are able to induce variations in phenotypic plasticity. Thus, the adaptive variability to low-pH river discharges may drive divergent stress responses [ingestion rates (IR) and expression of stress-related genes such as Heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) and Ferritin] in the neritic copepod Acartia tonsa facing changes in the marine chemistry associated to ocean acidification (OA). These responses were tested in copepod populations inhabiting two environments with contrasting carbonate system parameters (an estuarine versus coastal area) in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and assessing an in situ and 96-h experimental incubation under conditions of high pressure of CO2 (PCO2 1200 ppm). Adaptive variability was a determining factor in driving variability of copepods' responses. Thus, the food-rich but colder and corrosive estuary induced a traits trade-off expressed as depressed IR under in situ conditions. However, this experience allowed these copepods to tolerate further exposure to high PCO2 levels better, as their IRs were on average 43% higher than those of the coastal individuals. Indeed, expression of both the Hsp70 and Ferritin genes in coastal copepods was significantly higher after acclimation to high PCO2 conditions. Along with other recent evidence, our findings confirm that adaptation to local fluctuations in seawater pH seems to play a significant role in the response of planktonic populations to OA-associated conditions. Facing the environmental threat represented by the inter-play between multiple drivers of climate change, this biological feature should be examined in detail as a potential tool for risk mitigation policies in coastal management arrangements.

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Ocean acidification (OA) and warming related to the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 have been shown to have detrimental effects on several marine organisms, especially those with calcium carbonate structures such as corals. In this study, we evaluate the response of two Mediterranean shallow-water azooxanthellate corals to the projected pH and seawater temperature (ST) scenarios for the end of this century. The colonial coral Astroides calycularis and the solitary Leptopsammia pruvoti were grown in aquaria over a year under two fixed pH conditions, control (8.05 pHT units) and low (7.72 pHT units), and simulating two annual ST cycles, natural and high (+3 °C). The organic matter (OM), lipid and protein content of the tissue and the skeletal microdensity of A. calycularis were not affected by the stress conditions (low pH, high ST), but the species exhibited a mean 25 % decrease in calcification rate at high-ST conditions at the end of the warm period and a mean 10 % increase in skeletal porosity under the acidified treatment after a full year cycle. Conversely, an absence of effects on calcification and skeletal microdensity of L. pruvoti exposed to low-pH and high-ST treatments contrasted with a significant decrease in the OM, lipid and protein content of the tissue at high-ST conditions and a 13 % mean increase in the skeletal porosity under low-pH conditions following a full year of exposure. This species-specific response suggests that different internal self-regulation strategies for energy reallocation may allow certain shallow-water azooxanthellate corals to cope more successfully than others with global environmental changes.