Petrology and geochemistry of peridotites from IODP Site 304-U1309

Peridotite samples recovered from IODP Site U1309 at the Atlantis Massif in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge were examined to understand magmatic processes for the oceanic core complex formation. Original peridotite was fragmented, and the limited short peridotite intervals are now surrounded by a huge gabbro body probably formed by late-stage melt injections. Each peridotite interval has various petrographical and geochemical features. A spinel harzburgite in contact with gabbro shows evidence of limited melt penetrations causing gradual compositional change, in terms of trace-element compositions of pyroxenes, as well as modal change near the boundary. Geochemistry of clinopyroxenes with least melt effects indicates that the harzburgite is originally mantle residue formed by partial melting under polybaric conditions, and that such a depleted peridotite is one of the components of the oceanic core complex. Some of plagioclase-bearing peridotites, on the other hand, have more complicated origin. Although their original features were partly overprinted by the injected melt, the original peridotites, both residual and non-residual materials, were possibly derived from the upper mantle. This suggests that the melt injected around an upper mantle region or into mantle material fragments. The injected melt was possibly generated at the ridge-segment center and, then, moved and evolved toward the segment end beneath the oceanic core complex.

Forest disturbance map for the Carpathian ecoregion, 1984-2012

Detailed knowledge of forest cover dynamics is crucial for many applications from resource management to ecosystem service assessments. Landsat data provides the necessary spatial, temporal and spectral detail to map and analyze forest cover and forest change processes. With the opening of the Landsat archive, new opportunities arise to monitor forest dynamics on regional to continental scales. In this study we analyzed changes in forest types, forest disturbances, and forest recovery for the Carpathian ecoregion in Eastern Europe. We generated a series of image composites at five year intervals between 1985 and 2010 and utilized a hybrid analysis strategy consisting of radiometric change classification, post-classification comparison and continuous index- and segment-based post-disturbance recovery assessment. For validation of the disturbance map we used a point-based accuracy assessment, and assessed the accuracy of our forest type maps using forest inventory data and statistically sampled ground truth data for 2010. Our Carpathian-wide disturbance map achieved an overall accuracy of 86% and the forest type maps up to 73% accuracy. While our results suggested a small net forest increase in the Carpathians, almost 20% of the forests experienced stand-replacing disturbances over the past 25 years. Forest recovery seemed to only partly counterbalance the widespread natural disturbances and clear-cutting activities. Disturbances were most widespread during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but some areas also exhibited extensive forest disturbances after 2000, especially in the Polish, Czech and Romanian Carpathians. Considerable shifts in forest composition occurred in the Carpathians, with disturbances increasingly affecting coniferous forests, and a relative decrease in coniferous and mixed forests. Both aspects are likely connected to an increased vulnerability of spruce plantations to pests and pathogens in the Carpathians. Overall, our results exemplify the highly dynamic nature of forest cover during times of socio-economic and institutional change, and highlight the value of the Landsat archive for monitoring these dynamics.

Geochemistry and age model of sediment core BDP96-1

Within the framework of the Baikal Drilling Project (BDP), a 192 m long sediment core (BDP-96-1) was recovered from the Academician Ridge, a submerged topographic high between the North and Central Basins of Lake Baikal. Sedimentological, clay mineralogical and geochemical investigations were carried out on the core interval between 90 and 124 m depth, corresponding to ca. 2.4-3.4 Ma. The aim was to reconstruct the climatic and tectonic history of the continental region during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation in Late Pliocene time. A major climate change occurred in the Lake Baikal area at about 2.65 Ma. Enhanced physical weathering in the catchment, mirrored in the illite to smectite ratio, and temporarily reduced bioproduction in the lake, reflected by the diatom abundance, evidence a change towards a colder and more arid climate, probably associated with an intensification of the Siberian High. In addition, the coincident onset of distinct fluctuations in these parameters and in the Zr/Al ratio suggests the beginning of the Late Cenozoic high amplitude climate cycles at about 2.65 Ma. Fluctuations in the Zr/Al ratio are traced back to changes in the aeolian input, with high values in warmer, more humid phases due to a weaker Siberian High. Assuming that the sand content in the sediment reflects tectonic pulses, the Lake Baikal area was tectonically active during the entire investigated period, but in particular around 2.65 Ma. Tectonic movements have likely led to a gradual catchment change since about 3.15 Ma from the western towards the eastern lake surroundings, as indicated in the geochemistry and clay mineralogy of the sediments. The strong coincidence between tectonic and climatic changes in the Baikal area hints at the Himalayan uplift being one of the triggers for the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Lake Baikal amphipods under climate change: Thermal constraints and ecological consequences, links to supplementary material

Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.