4 resultados para geostatistical

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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This data set presents a comprehensive characterisation of the sedimentary structures from important groundwater hosting formations in Germany (Herten aquifer analog) and Brazil (Descalvado aquifer analog). Multiple 2-D outcrop faces are described in terms of hydraulic, thermal and chemical properties and interpolated in 3D using stochastic techniques. For each aquifer analog, multiple 3D realisations of the facies heterogeneity are provided using different stochastic simulations settings. These are unique analogue data sets that can be used by the wider community to implement approaches for characterising aquifer formations.

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Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

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We present the first high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) gridded methane (CH4) emission inventory for Switzerland, which integrates the national emission totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and recent CH4 flux studies conducted by research groups across Switzerland. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, we also include natural and semi-natural CH4 fluxes, i.e., emissions from lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, wild animals as well as uptake by forest soils. National CH4 emissions were disaggregated using detailed geostatistical information on source locations and their spatial extent and process- or area-specific emission factors. In Switzerland, the highest CH4 emissions in 2011 originated from the agricultural sector (150 Gg CH4/yr), mainly produced by ruminants and manure management, followed by emissions from waste management (15 Gg CH4/yr) mainly from landfills and the energy sector (12 Gg CH4/yr), which was dominated by emissions from natural gas distribution. Compared to the anthropogenic sources, emissions from natural and semi-natural sources were relatively small (6 Gg CH4/yr), making up only 3 % of the total emissions in Switzerland. CH4 fluxes from agricultural soils were estimated to be not significantly different from zero (between -1.5 and 0 Gg CH4/yr), while forest soils are a CH4 sink (approx. -2.8 Gg CH4/yr), partially offsetting other natural emissions. Estimates of uncertainties are provided for the different sources, including an estimate of spatial disaggregation errors deduced from a comparison with a global (EDGAR v4.2) and a European CH4 inventory (TNO/MACC). This new spatially-explicit emission inventory for Switzerland will provide valuable input for regional scale atmospheric modeling and inverse source estimation.

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Approaches to quantify the organic carbon accumulation on a global scale generally do not consider the small-scale variability of sedimentary and oceanographic boundary conditions along continental margins. In this study, we present a new approach to regionalize the total organic carbon (TOC) content in surface sediments (<5 cm sediment depth). It is based on a compilation of more than 5500 single measurements from various sources. Global TOC distribution was determined by the application of a combined qualitative and quantitative-geostatistical method. Overall, 33 benthic TOC-based provinces were defined and used to process the global distribution pattern of the TOC content in surface sediments in a 1°x1° grid resolution. Regional dependencies of data points within each single province are expressed by modeled semi-variograms. Measured and estimated TOC values show good correlation, emphasizing the reasonable applicability of the method. The accumulation of organic carbon in marine surface sediments is a key parameter in the control of mineralization processes and the material exchange between the sediment and the ocean water. Our approach will help to improve global budgets of nutrient and carbon cycles.