8 resultados para generalised linear mixed model
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Understanding how the environment influences patterns of diversity is vital for effective conservation management, especially in a changing global climate. While assemblage structure and species richness patterns are often correlated with current environmental factors, historical influences may also be considerable, especially for taxa with poor dispersal abilities. Mountain-top regions throughout tropical rainforests can act as important refugia for taxa characterised by low dispersal capacities such as flightless ground beetles (Carabidae), an ecologically significant predatory group. We surveyed flightless ground beetles along elevational gradients in five different subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to investigate (1) whether the diversity and composition of flightless ground beetles are elevationally stratified, and, if so, (2) what environmental factors (other than elevation per se) are associated with these patterns. Generalised linear models and model averaging techniques were used to relate patterns of diversity to environmental factors. Unlike most taxonomic groups, flightless ground beetles increased in species richness and abundance with elevation. Additionally, each subregion consisted of distinct assemblages containing a high level of regional endemic species. Species richness was most strongly positively associated with the historical climatic conditions and negatively associated with severity of recent disturbance (treefalls) and current climatic conditions. Assemblage composition was associated with latitude and current and historical climatic conditions. Our results suggest that distributional patterns of flightless ground beetles are not only likely to be associated with factors that change with elevation (current climatic conditions), but also factors that are independent of elevation (recent disturbance and historical climatic conditions). Variation in historical vegetation stability explained both species richness and assemblage composition patterns, probably reflecting the significance of upland refugia at a geographic time scale. These findings are important for conservation management as upland habitats are under threat from climate change.
Resumo:
Inter-individual variation in diet within generalist animal populations is thought to be a widespread phenomenon but its potential causes are poorly known. Inter-individual variation can be amplified by the availability and use of allochthonous resources, i.e., resources coming from spatially distinct ecosystems. Using a wild population of arctic fox as a study model, we tested hypotheses that could explain variation in both population and individual isotopic niches, used here as proxy for the trophic niche. The arctic fox is an opportunistic forager, dwelling in terrestrial and marine environments characterized by strong spatial (arctic-nesting birds) and temporal (cyclic lemmings) fluctuations in resource abundance. First, we tested the hypothesis that generalist foraging habits, in association with temporal variation in prey accessibility, should induce temporal changes in isotopic niche width and diet. Second, we investigated whether within-population variation in the isotopic niche could be explained by individual characteristics (sex and breeding status) and environmental factors (spatiotemporal variation in prey availability). We addressed these questions using isotopic analysis and Bayesian mixing models in conjunction with linear mixed-effects models. We found that: i) arctic fox populations can simultaneously undergo short-term (i.e., within a few months) reduction in both isotopic niche width and inter-individual variability in isotopic ratios, ii) individual isotopic ratios were higher and more representative of a marine-based diet for non-breeding than breeding foxes early in spring, and iii) lemming population cycles did not appear to directly influence the diet of individual foxes after taking their breeding status into account. However, lemming abundance was correlated to proportion of breeding foxes, and could thus indirectly affect the diet at the population scale.
Resumo:
Background: Conifer populations appear disproportionately threatened by global change. Most examples are, however, drawn from the northern hemisphere and long-term rates of population decline are not well documented as historical data are often lacking. We use a large and long-term (1931-2013) repeat photography dataset together with environmental data and fire records to account for the decline of the critically endangered Widdringtonia cedarbergensis. Eighty-seven historical and repeat photo-pairs were analysed to establish 20th century changes in W. cedarbergensis demography. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fitted to determine the relative importance of environmental factors and fire-return interval on mortality for the species. Results: From an initial total of 1313 live trees in historical photographs, 74% had died and only 44 (3.4%) had recruited in the repeat photographs, leaving 387 live individuals. Juveniles (mature adults) had decreased (increased) from 27% (73%) to 8% (92%) over the intervening period. Our model demonstrates that mortality is related to greater fire frequency, higher temperatures, lower elevations, less rocky habitats and aspect (i.e. east-facing slopes had the least mortality). Conclusions: Our results show that W. cedarbergensis populations have declined significantly over the recorded period, with a pronounced decline in the last 30 years. Individuals that established in open habitats at lower, hotter elevations and experienced a greater fire frequency appear to be more vulnerable to mortality than individuals growing within protected, rocky environments at higher, cooler locations with less frequent fires. Climate models predict increasing temperatures for our study area (and likely increases in wildfires). If these predictions are realised, further declines in the species can be expected. Urgent management interventions, including seedling out-planting in fire-protected high elevation sites, reducing fire frequency in higher elevation populations, and assisted migration, should be considered.
Resumo:
The dataset contains measurements of river stage and discharge for one sites along the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River's northern tributary, with 30 minute temporal resolution between June 2008 and August 2013 This river is a tributary to the Watson River discharging into Kangerlussuaq Fjord by the town of Kangerlussuaq, Southwest Greenland. Additional data of water temperature, air pressure are also provided. Compared to version 1.0 of the dataset, this dataset used a total of 36 in situ discharge observations collected between 2008 and 2012 to construct the rating curve. Furthermore, data of Station AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 have been removed from version 2.0 because these values were likely caused by backflow when a jokulhlaup from a large glacier dammed lake caused increased water levels in the downstreams lake. Thus, data measured at AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 are not representative for the AK-004 catchment.
Resumo:
We describe the habitat use of 22 male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) satellite tagged at Marion Island between 2004 and 2008. While a few areas of increased utilization appeared to be associated with areas of shallower bathymetry (such as sea-floor ridges and fracture zones), seals in our study did not target other areas of shallow bathymetry within close proximity to Marion Island. Rather, most elephant seals foraged pelagically over very deep water where much variation was evident in diel vertical migration strategies. These strategies resulted in generally deeper and longer dives than what has been reported for male elephant seals from other colonies. No significant differences were recorded for dive durations or dive depths between adults and sub-adults. However, younger animals displayed a positive relationship between dive durations and age, as well as between dive depths and age, while these relationships became negative for older animals. Mixed model outputs suggested that seals increased their aerobic fitness as migrations progressed, enabling them to undertake longer dives. We conclude that Marion Island male elephant seals exhibit much variability in dive strategy and are seemingly capable of exploiting a range of different prey types occurring in various depth layers.
Resumo:
Understanding the distribution and foraging ecology of major consumers within pelagic systems, specifically in relation to physical parameters, can be important for the management of bentho-pelagic systems undergoing rapid change associated with global climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing (i.e., the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea). We tracked 11 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), during their five-month post-moult foraging migrations from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), northern Antarctic Peninsula, using tags capable of recording and transmitting behavioural data and in situ temperature and salinity data. Seals foraged mostly within the Weddell-Scotia Confluence, while a few foraged along the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf of the Bellingshausen Sea. Mixed model outputs suggest that the at-sea behaviour of seals was associated with a number of environmental parameters, especially seafloor depth, sea-ice concentrations and the temperature structure of the water column. Seals increased dive bottom times and travelled at slower speeds in shallower areas and areas with increased sea-ice concentrations. Changes in dive depth and durations, as well as relative amount of time spent during the bottom phases of dives, were observed in relation to differences in overall temperature gradient, likely as a response to vertical changes in prey distribution associated with temperature stratification in the water column. Our results illustrate the likely complex influences of bathymetry, hydrography and sea ice on the behaviour of male southern elephant seals in a changing environment and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to studying environmental influences on behaviour.
Resumo:
Most of the Pb isotope data for the Leg 92 metalliferous sediments (carbonate-free fraction) form approximately linear arrays in the conventional isotopic plots, extending from the middle of the field for mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) toward the field for Mn nodules. These arrays are directed closely to the average values of Mn nodules, the composition of which reflects the Pb isotope composition of seawater (Reynolds and Dasch, 1971). Since the Leg 92 samples are almost devoid of continentally derived detritus, it can be inferred that the more radiogenic end-member is seawater. The less radiogenic end-member lies in the very middle of the MORB field, and hence can be considered to reflect the Pb isotope composition of typical ocean-ridge basalt. The array of data lying between these two end-members is most readily interpreted in terms of simple linear mixing of Pb from the two different end-member sources. According to this model, eight samples from Sites 599 to 601 contain 50 to 100% basaltic Pb. Five of these samples have compositions that are identical within the uncertainty of the analyses. We use the average of these five values to define our unradiogenic end-member in the linear mixing model. The ratios used for this average are 206Pb/204Pb = 18.425 ± 0.010; 207Pb/204Pb = 15.495 ± 0.018; 208Pb/204Pb = 37.879 ± 0.068. These values should approximate the average Pb isotope composition of discharging hydrothermal solutions, and therefore also that of the basaltic crust, over the period of time represented by these samples ( 4 m.y., from 4 to 8 Ma). Sr isotope ratios show a significant range of values, from 0.7082 to 0.7091. The lower ratios are well outside the value of 0.70910 ± 6 for modern-day seawater (Burke et al., 1982). However, most values correspond very closely to the curve of 87Sr/86Sr versus age for seawater, with older samples having progressively lower 87Sr/86Sr ratios. The simplest explanation for this progressive reduction is that recrystallization of the abundant biogenic carbonate in the sediments released older seawater Sr which was incorporated into ferromanganiferous phases during diagenesis. Leg 92 metalliferous sediments have total rare earth element (REE) contents that range on a carbonate-free basis from 131 to 301 ppm, with a clustering between 167 and 222 ppm. The patterns have strong negative Ce anomalies. Samples from Sites 599 to 601 display a slight but distinct enrichment in the heavy REE relative to the light REE, whereas those from Sites 597 to 598 show almost no heavy REE enrichment. The former patterns (those for Sites 599 to 601) are interpreted as indicating moderate diagenetic alteration of metalliferous sediments originating at the EPR axis; the latter reflect more complete diagenetic modification.
Resumo:
Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.