5 resultados para future predictions

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafter Hg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p < 0.0001) from 1892 to 2008 and the two most recent median concentrations from 2006 and 2008 were 23- to 27-fold higher respectively than baseline level from 1300 A.D. in the same region (Nuullit). This indicates that the present (2006-2008) Northwest Greenland polar bear Hg exposure is 95.6-96.2% anthropogenic in its origin. Assuming a continued anthropogenic increase, this model estimated concentrations in 2050 and 2100 will be 40- and 92-fold the baseline concentration, respectively, which is equivalent to a 97.5 and 98.9% man-made contribution. None of the 2001-2008 concentrations of Hg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 µg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 µg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call for detailed effect studies in main target organs such as brain, liver, kidney, and sexual organs in the Northwest Greenland polar bears.

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Since the industrial revolution, [CO2]atm has increased from 280 µatm to levels now exceeding 380 µatm and is expected to rise to 730-1,020 µatm by the end of this century. The consequent changes in the ocean's chemistry (e.g., lower pH and availability of the carbonate ions) are expected to pose particular problems for marine organisms, especially in the more vulnerable early life stages. The aim of this study was to investigate how the future predictions of ocean acidification may compromise the metabolism and swimming capabilities of the recently hatched larvae of the tropical dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus). Here, we show that the future environmental hypercapnia (delta pH 0.5; 0.16 % CO2, ~1,600 µatm) significantly (p < 0.05) reduced oxygen consumption rate up to 17 %. Moreover, the swimming duration and orientation frequency also decreased with increasing pCO2 (50 and 62.5 %, respectively). We argue that these hypercapnia-driven metabolic and locomotory challenges may potentially influence recruitment, dispersal success, and the population dynamics of this circumtropical oceanic top predator.

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Biogenic calcification is influenced by the concentration of available carbonate ions. The recent confirmation of this for hermatypic corals has raised concern over the future of coral reefs because [CO3] is a decreasing function of increasing pCO2 in the atmosphere. As one of the overriding features of coral reefs is their diversity, understanding the degree of variability between species in their ability to cope with a change in [CO3] is a priority. We cultured four phylogenetically and physiologically different species of hermatypic coral (Acropora verweyi, Galaxea fascicularis, Pavona cactus and Turbinaria reniformis) under 'normal' (280 µmol/kg) and 'low' (140 µmol/kg) carbonate-ion concentrations. The effect on skeletogenesis was investigated quantitatively (by calcification rate) and qualitatively (by microstructural appearance of growing crystalline fibres using scanning electron microscopy (SEM)). The 'low carbonate' treatment resulted in a significant suppression of calcification rate and a tendency for weaker crystallization at the distal tips of fibres. However, while the calcification rate was affected uniformly across species (13-18% reduction), the magnitude of the microstructural response was highly species specific: crystallization was most markedly affected in A. verweyi and least in T. reniformis. These results are discussed in relation to past records and future predictions of carbonate variability in the oceans.

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Rising anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere is accompanied by an increase in oceanic CO2 and a concomitant decline in seawater pH (ref. 1). This phenomenon, known as ocean acidification (OA), has been experimentally shown to impact the biology and ecology of numerous animals and plants2, most notably those that precipitate calcium carbonate skeletons, such as reef-building corals3. Volcanically acidified water at Maug, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) is equivalent to near-future predictions for what coral reef ecosystems will experience worldwide due to OA. We provide the first chemical and ecological assessment of this unique site and show that acidification-related stress significantly influences the abundance and diversity of coral reef taxa, leading to the often-predicted shift from a coral to an algae-dominated state4, 5. This study provides field evidence that acidification can lead to macroalgae dominance on reefs.

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Warming seawater temperatures and ocean acidification on the coastal western Antarctic Peninsula pose unique challenges to stenothermal marine invertebrates. The present study examines prospective sub-lethal effects of elevated temperature, pCO2, and resultant decrease in seawater pH, on righting behavior and maximal escape speeds for two common gastropods, the limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel) and mesogastropod snail Margarella antarctica (Lamy). Replicate individuals held in individual containers were exposed to four combinations of seawater temperature (1.5 °C-current average, 3.5 °C-projected average by 2100) and pH (pH 8.0-current average, pH 7.8-projected average by 2100 as a result of elevated pCO2 levels) for a period of 6 weeks. Following this chronic exposure, righting behavior, determined for the limpets as proportion to right over 24 h and for snails as time to right, as well as maximum escape speed following contact with a sea star predator were measured. We found no significant differences in proportions of limpets displaying the capacity to right among the four temperature-pH treatments. However, there was a significant temperature-pH interaction effect for mean righting times in snails, indicating that the effect of pH on the time to right is dependent on temperature. We found no significant effects of temperature or pH on mean maximal escape speed in limpets. Additionally, we observed a significant temperature-pH interaction effect for mean maximal escape speed in snails. These interactive effects make it difficult to make clear predictions about how these environmental factors may impact behavioral responses.