Forest disturbance map for the Carpathian ecoregion, 1984-2012

Detailed knowledge of forest cover dynamics is crucial for many applications from resource management to ecosystem service assessments. Landsat data provides the necessary spatial, temporal and spectral detail to map and analyze forest cover and forest change processes. With the opening of the Landsat archive, new opportunities arise to monitor forest dynamics on regional to continental scales. In this study we analyzed changes in forest types, forest disturbances, and forest recovery for the Carpathian ecoregion in Eastern Europe. We generated a series of image composites at five year intervals between 1985 and 2010 and utilized a hybrid analysis strategy consisting of radiometric change classification, post-classification comparison and continuous index- and segment-based post-disturbance recovery assessment. For validation of the disturbance map we used a point-based accuracy assessment, and assessed the accuracy of our forest type maps using forest inventory data and statistically sampled ground truth data for 2010. Our Carpathian-wide disturbance map achieved an overall accuracy of 86% and the forest type maps up to 73% accuracy. While our results suggested a small net forest increase in the Carpathians, almost 20% of the forests experienced stand-replacing disturbances over the past 25 years. Forest recovery seemed to only partly counterbalance the widespread natural disturbances and clear-cutting activities. Disturbances were most widespread during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but some areas also exhibited extensive forest disturbances after 2000, especially in the Polish, Czech and Romanian Carpathians. Considerable shifts in forest composition occurred in the Carpathians, with disturbances increasingly affecting coniferous forests, and a relative decrease in coniferous and mixed forests. Both aspects are likely connected to an increased vulnerability of spruce plantations to pests and pathogens in the Carpathians. Overall, our results exemplify the highly dynamic nature of forest cover during times of socio-economic and institutional change, and highlight the value of the Landsat archive for monitoring these dynamics.

Plant macrofossils from Lac de Fully

We use pollen, stomata and plant-macrofossil records to infer Holocene timberline fluctuations and changes in forest composition at Lac Superieur de Fully (2135 m a.s.l.), a small lake located near the modern regional timberline on a highland plateau in the Central Alps. Our records suggest that during the early Holocene vegetation was rather open on the plateau (eg, heaths of Dryas octopetala, Juniperus nana). The only tree that was able to build major stands was Betula. Other timberline trees (eg, Pinus cembra and Larix) expanded in the catchment of the lake after 8200 cal. BP, when Abies alba expanded at lower elevation. The late appearance of these timberline trees contrasts with previous plant-macrofossil records in the region, which show that the timberline had reached elevations up to at least 2350 m already at 11 000 cal. BP. We suggest that local climatic conditions may have delayed the expansion of closed stands of coniferous trees in the catchment of Lac de Fully until c. 8200 cal. BP, when climate shifted to more humid and less continental conditions. After c. 4600 cal. BP vegetation around the lake primarily responded to human impact, which caused a local lowering of the timberline by at least 150 m.

Palynology of ODP Leg 127 sites

This initial survey of pollen from 192 samples from Hole 794A, supplemented by 189 samples from Hole 795 and 797B, suggests that marine pollen assemblages from the southwestern Sea of Japan provide a consistent Neogene pollen stratigraphy and a solid basis for regional paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Late Miocene vegetation inferred from these pollen data, a mix of conifer and broad-leaf elements with now-extinct Tertiary types well represented, appears similar to Aniai-type floras of Japan. During the late Miocene through early Pliocene, as Tertiary types declined, conifers (including the Sequoia/Cryptomeria group) became more prominent than broad-leaf elements, and herbs played an increasing role in the vegetation. Middle Pliocene pollen assemblages imply significant changes in forest composition. In a 500,000-yr interval centered at ~4 m.y., Tertiary and warm-temperate deciduous types re-expanded and were comparable to or greater than middle-late Miocene levels. Temperate and cold-temperate conifers {Picea, Abies, Tsuga) were minimal. Subsequently, Tertiary and deciduous forest components (including Quercus) decreased, Picea, Tsuga, and Abies were again prominent, and herbs formed an increasingly larger part of the vegetation. Between ~3 m.y. and -2.5 m.y., conifers, except for Cryptomeria types, were prominent, Quercus continued to decline, and other broad-leaf trees were minor. Over the last 2 Ma, the very large and frequent changes in forest composition inferred from pollen in the Sea of Japan correspond to forest dynamics inferred from changes in pollen and floral assemblages throughout Japan. Given present vegetation/climate relationships, broad trends in Neogene climate inferred from these preliminary pollen data include decreasing temperatures, increasing seasonality in temperatures and precipitation, and increasing amplitude and frequency of climatic change. Two significant events, centered at ~9 m.y. and ~4 m.y., punctuate the gradual deterioration of the equable warm, humid subtropical/warm temperate late Miocene and early Pliocene climates. The first indication of cold-temperate conditions comparable to those of Pleistocene glacial intervals occurs ~3 m.y. Subsequently, regional climates oscillated rapidly between temperate and cold-temperate regimes that supported conifer and mixed broad-leaf forests; however, climatic extremes were apparently never great enough to displace warm-temperate and temperate forests from Honshu nor to produce arctic climates on the west coast of Japan.

R-script modified VS-Lite model

Drought is a key factor affecting forest ecosystem processes at different spatio-temporal scales. For accurately modeling tree functioning ? and thus for producing reliable simulations of forest dynamics ? the consideration of the variability in the timing and extent of drought effects on tree growth is essential, particularly in strongly seasonal climates such as in the Mediterranean area. Yet, most dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) do not include this intra-annual variability of drought effects on tree growth. We present a novel approach for linking tree-ring data to drought simulations in DVMs. A modified forward model of tree-ring width (VS-Lite) was used to estimate seasonal- and site-specific growth responses to drought of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), which were subsequently implemented in the DVM ForClim. Ring-width data from sixteen sites along a moisture gradient from Central Spain to the Swiss Alps, including the dry inner Alpine valleys, were used to calibrate the forward ring-width model, and inventory data from managed Scots pine stands were used to evaluate ForClim performance. The modified VS-Lite accurately estimated the year-to-year variability in ring-width indices and produced realistic intra-annual growth responses to soil drought, showing a stronger relationship between growth and drought in spring than in the other seasons and thus capturing the strategy of Scots pine to cope with drought. The ForClim version including seasonal variability in growth responses to drought showed improved predictions of stand basal area and stem number, indicating the need to consider intra-annual differences in climate-growth relationships in DVMs when simulating forest dynamics. Forward modeling of ring-width growth may be a powerful tool to calibrate growth functions in DVMs that aim to simulate forest properties in across multiple environments at large spatial scales.

Holocene carbon cycle dynamics, links to model files

We are investigating the late Holocene rise in CO2 by performing four experiments with the climate-carbon-cycle model CLIMBER2-LPJ. Apart from the deep sea sediments, important carbon cycle processes considered are carbon uptake or release by the vegetation, carbon uptake by peatlands, and CO 2 release due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3. Ice core data of atmospheric CO2 between 8 ka BP and preindustrial climate can only be reproduced if CO2 outgassing due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3 is considered. In this case the model displays an increase of nearly 20 ppmv CO2 between 8 ka BP and present day. Model configurations that do not contain this forcing show a slight decrease in atmospheric CO2. We can therefore explain the late Holocene rise in CO2 by invoking natural forcing factors only, and anthropogenic forcing is not required to understand preindustrial CO2 dynamics.

Wetland maps including open water extent dynamics based on ENVISAT ASAR WS for Siberia, 2007 and 2008, links to GeoTIFFs

Wetlands store large amounts of carbon, and depending on their status and type, they release specific amounts of methane gas to the atmosphere. The connection between wetland type and methane emission has been investigated in various studies and utilized in climate change monitoring and modelling. For improved estimation of methane emissions, land surface models require information such as the wetland fraction and its dynamics over large areas. Existing datasets of wetland dynamics present the total amount of wetland (fraction) for each model grid cell, but do not discriminate the different wetland types like permanent lakes, periodically inundated areas or peatlands. Wetland types differently influence methane fluxes and thus their contribution to the total wetland fraction should be quantified. Especially wetlands of permafrost regions are expected to have a strong impact on future climate due to soil thawing. In this study ENIVSAT ASAR Wide Swath data was tested for operational monitoring of the distribution of areas with a long-term SW near 1 (hSW) in northern Russia (SW = degree of saturation with water, 1 = saturated), which is a specific characteristic of peatlands. For the whole northern Russia, areas with hSW were delineated and discriminated from dynamic and open water bodies for the years 2007 and 2008. The area identified with this method amounts to approximately 300,000 km**2 in northern Siberia in 2007. It overlaps with zones of high carbon storage. Comparison with a range of related datasets (static and dynamic) showed that hSW represents not only peatlands but also temporary wetlands associated with post-forest fire conditions in permafrost regions. Annual long-term monitoring of change in boreal and tundra environments is possible with the presented approach. Sentinel-1, the successor of ENVISAT ASAR, will provide data that may allow continuous monitoring of these wetland dynamics in the future complementing global observations of wetland fraction.

Pollen, DNA and Vegetation records from surface sediments of lacustrine lakes along a forest tundra - tundra transect at the Taymyr peninsula, northern Siberia

Reliable information of past vegetation changes are important to project future changes, especially for areas undergoing rapid transitioning such as the boreal treeline. The application of detailed sedDNA records has the potential to enhance our understanding of vegetation changes gained mainly from pollen studies of lake sediments. This study investigates sedDNA and pollen records from 31 lakes along a gradient of increasing larch forest cover in northern Siberia (Taymyr Peninsula) and compares them with vegetation field surveys within the lake's catchment. With respect to vegetation richness, sedDNA recorded 114 taxa, about half of them to species level, while pollen analyses identified 43 pollen taxa. Both approaches exceed the 31 taxa revealed by vegetation field surveys of 400 m**2 plots. From north to south, Larix percentages increase, as is consistently recorded by all three methods. Furthermore, tundra sites are separated from forested sites in the plots of the principal component analyses. Comparison of ordination results by Procrustes and Protest analyses yields a significant fit among all compared pairs of records. Despite the overall comparability of sedDNA and pollen analyses certain idiosyncrasies in the compositional signal are observed, such as high percentages of Alnus and Betula in all pollen spectra and high percentages of Salix in all sedDNA spectra. In conclusion, our results from the treeline show that sedDNA analyses perform better than pollen in recording site-specific richness (i.e. presence/absence of certain vegetation taxa in the direct vicinity of the lake) and perform as good as pollen in tracing regional vegetation composition.