An individual based model spatial distribution, production and biomass for Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.

Salinization MASS Model Version

This salinization simulation enables irrigation salinity, capillary rise, rainfall, leaching, salt mitigation strategies via fallowing, and other functions that are addressed in a coupled social-environment model applied to southern Mesopotamia. The simulation is applied to the Modeling Ancient Settlement Systems Project supported by the University of Chicago, Durham University, and Argonne National Laboratory. The simulation can be used for other regions.

Plants growing near the cargo packing station, and seed occurrence in cargo and luggage destined for Gough and Marion Island and the Antarctic

Globalization has resulted in unprecedented movements of people, goods, and alien species across the planet. Although the impacts of biological invasions are widely appreciated, a bias exists in research effort to post-dispersal processes because of the difficulties of measuring propagule pressure. The Antarctic provides an ideal model system in which to investigate propagule movements because of the region's isolation and small number of entry routes. Here we investigated the logistics operations of the South African National Antarctic Programme (SANAP) and quantified the initial dispersal of alien species into the region. we found that over 1400 seeds from 99 taxa are transported into the Antarctic each field season in association with SANAP passenger luggage and cargo. The first ever assessment of propagule drop-off indicated that 30-50% of these propagules will enter the recipient environment. Many of the taxa include cosmopolitan weeds and known aliens in the Antarctic, indicating that logistics operations form part of a globally self-perpetuating cycle moving alien species between areas of human disturbance. in addition, propagules of some taxa native to the Antarctic region were also found, suggesting that human movements may be facilitating intra-regional homogenization. Several relatively simple changes in biosecurity policy that could significantly reduce the threat of introduction of nonnative species are suggested.

(Table T1) Coral taxa and their ecological significance in ODP Site 194-1196 and Hole 194-1199A sediments

The Southern Marion Plateau (SMP) represents a vertical stacking of Miocene carbonate platform deposits. Two sites (1196 and 1199) were drilled on top of this plateau, penetrating a 663-m carbonate succession of bioclastic and reefal sedimentary bodies. The study focuses on the least dolomitized 410-m-thick upper part of the succession, which is middle to late Miocene in age. Sedimentological and paleontological studies were conducted at both sites in order to propose a paleoenvironmental model and its evolution through the Miocene age. Six main microfacies of possible environmental significance were defined using statistical multivariate analyses, based on the recognition and point counting of 24 biogenic components. Depositional environment reconstructions are proposed as well as the biosedimentary and the environmental evolution regarding seismic architectures, stratigraphy, biosedimentology, and microfacies analysis. The SMP platform mainly results from a vertical stacking of lens-shaped bodies in homoclinal to distally steepened ramp settings.

Euphausiid respiration model revamped, link to model results

Euphausiids constitute major biomass component in shelf ecosystems and play a fundamental role in the rapid vertical transport of carbon from the ocean surface to the deeper layers during their daily vertical migration (DVM). DVM depth and migration patterns depend on oceanographic conditions with respect to temperature, light and oxygen availability at depth, factors that are highly dependent on season in most marine regions. Changes in the abiotic conditions also shape Euphausiid metabolism including aerobic and anaerobic energy production. Here we introduce a global krill respiration model which includes the effect of latitude (LAT), the day of the year of interest (DoY), and the number of daylight hours on the day of interest (DLh), in addition to the basal variables that determine ectothermal oxygen consumption (temperature, body mass and depth) in the ANN model (Artificial Neural Networks). The newly implemented parameters link space and time in terms of season and photoperiod to krill respiration. The ANN model showed a better fit (r**2=0.780) when DLh and LAT were included, indicating a decrease in respiration with increasing LAT and decreasing DLh. We therefore propose DLh as a potential variable to consider when building physiological models for both hemispheres. We also tested for seasonality the standard respiration rate of the most common species that were investigated until now in a large range of DLh and DoY with Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) or General Additive model (GAM). GAM successfully integrated DLh (r**2= 0.563) and DoY (r**2= 0.572) effects on respiration rates of the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, yielding the minimum metabolic activity in mid-June and the maximum at the end of December. Neither the MLR nor the GAM approach worked for the North Pacific krill Euphausia pacifica, and MLR for the North Atlantic krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica remained inconclusive because of insufficient seasonal data coverage. We strongly encourage comparative respiration measurements of worldwide Euphausiid key species at different seasons to improve accuracy in ecosystem modelling.

Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

Lake Baikal amphipods under climate change: Thermal constraints and ecological consequences, links to supplementary material

Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.

Simulation Model of Benthic Antarctic Assemblages (SIMBAA), link to PC-executable

SIMBAA is a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model. It was developed to analyse the response of populations of Antarctic benthic species and their diversity to iceberg scouring. This disturbance is causing a high local mortality providing potential space for new colonisation. Traits can be attributed to model species, e.g. in terms of reproduction, dispersal, and life span. Physical disturbances can be designed in space and time, e.g. in terms of size, shape, and frequency. Environmental heterogeneity can be considered by cell-specific capacities to host a certain number of individuals. When grid cells become empty (after a disturbance event or due to natural mortality of of an individual), a lottery decides which individual from which species stored in a pool of candidates (for this cell) will recruit in that cell. After a defined period the individuals become mature and their offspring are dispersed and stored in the pool of candidates. The biological parameters and disturbance regimes decide on how long an individual lives. Temporal development of single populations of species as well as Shannon diversity are depicted in the main window graphically and primary values are listed. Examples for simulations can be loaded and saved as sgf-files. The results are also shown in an additional window in a dimensionless area with 50 x 50 cells, which contain single individuals depicted as circles; their colour indicates the assignment to the self-designed model species and the size represents their age. Dominant species per cell and disturbed areas can also be depicted. Output of simulation runs can be saved as images, which can be assembled to video-clips by standard computer programs (see GIF-examples of which "Demo 1" represents the response of the Antarctic benthos to iceberg scouring and "Demo 2" represents a simulation of a deep-sea benthic habitat).

Ecological assessment data of the marine flora and fauna of Point Lookout in 2014 (PLEA)

In 2014, UniDive (The University of Queensland Underwater Club) conducted an ecological assessment of the Point Lookout Dive sites for comparison with similar surveys conducted in 2001. Involvement in the project was voluntary. Members of UniDive who were marine experts conducted training for other club members who had no, or limited, experience in identifying marine organisms and mapping habitats. Since the 2001 detailed baseline study, no similar seasonal survey has been conducted. The 2014 data is particularly important given that numerous changes have taken place in relation to the management of, and potential impacts on, these reef sites. In 2009, Moreton Bay Marine Park was re-zoned, and Flat Rock was converted to a marine national park zone (Green zone) with no fishing or anchoring. In 2012, four permanent moorings were installed at Flat Rock. Additionally, the entire area was exposed to the potential effects of the 2011 and 2013 Queensland floods, including flood plumes which carried large quantities of sediment into Moreton Bay and surrounding waters. The population of South East Queensland has increased from 2.49 million in 2001 to 3.18 million in 2011 (BITRE, 2013). This rapidly expanding coastal population has increased the frequency and intensity of both commercial and recreational activities around Point Lookout dive sites (EPA 2008). Methodology used for the PLEA project was based on the 2001 survey protocols, Reef Check Australia protocols and Coral Watch methods. This hybrid methodology was used to monitor substrate and benthos, invertebrates, fish, and reef health impacts. Additional analyses were conducted with georeferenced photo transects. The PLEA marine surveys were conducted over six weekends in 2014 totaling 535 dives and 376 hours underwater. Two training weekends (February and March) were attended by 44 divers, whilst biological surveys were conducted on seasonal weekends (February, May, July and October). Three reefs were surveyed, with two semi-permanent transects at Flat Rock, two at Shag Rock, and one at Manta Ray Bommie. Each transect was sampled once every survey weekend, with the transect tapes deployed at a depth of 10 m below chart datum. Fish populations were assessed using a visual census along 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape), 5 m high and 20 m in length. Fish families and species were chosen that are commonly targeted by recreational or commercial fishers, or targeted by aquarium collectors, and that were easily identified by their body shape. Rare or otherwise unusual species were also recorded. Target invertebrate populations were assessed using visual census along 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape) and 20 m in length. The diver surveying invertebrates conducted a 'U-shaped' search pattern, covering 2.5 m on either side of the transect tape. Target impacts were assessed using a visual census along the 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape) and 20 m in length. The transect was surveyed via a 'U-shaped' search pattern, covering 2.5 m on either side of the transect tape. Substrate surveys were conducted using the point sampling method, enabling percentage cover of substrate types and benthic organisms to be calculated. The substrate or benthos under the transect line was identified at 0.5m intervals, with a 5m gap between each of the three 20m segments. Categories recorded included various growth forms of hard and soft coral, key species/growth forms of algae, other living organisms (i.e. sponges), recently killed coral, and, non-living substrate types (i.e. bare rock, sand, rubble, silt/clay).

Terrain model of the Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano (10 m grid size)

The Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano is a natural laboratory to study geological, geochemical, and ecological processes related to deep-water mud volcanism. High resolution bathymetry of the Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano was recorded during RV Polarstern expedition ARK-XIX/3 utilizing the multibeam system Hydrosweep DS-2. Dense spacing of the survey lines and slow ship speed (5 knots) provided necessary point density to generate a regular 10 m grid. Generalization was applied to preserve and represent morphological structures appropriately. Contour lines were derived showing detailed topography at the centre of the Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano and generalized contours in the vicinity. We provide a brief introduction to the Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano area and describe in detail data recording and processing methods, as well as the morphology of the area. Accuracy assessment was made to evaluate the reliability of a 10 m resolution terrain model. Multibeam sidescan data were recorded along with depth measurements and show reflectivity variations from light grey values at the centre of the Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano to dark grey values (less reflective) at the surrounding moat.

Two-dimensional (2-D) peat microtopographical model

Matlab script file of a two-dimensional (2-D) peat microtopographical model together with other supplementary files that are required to run the model.

Coccolithophore sensitivities to changing carbonate chemistry - an ecological framework

Coccolithophores are a group of unicellular phytoplankton species whose ability to calcify has a profound influence on biogeochemical element cycling. Calcification rates are controlled by a large variety of biotic and abiotic factors. Among these factors, carbonate chemistry has gained considerable attention during the last years as coccolithophores have been identified to be particularly sensitive to ocean acidification. Despite intense research in this area, a general concept harmonizing the numerous and sometimes (seemingly) contradictory responses of coccolithophores to changing carbonate chemistry is still lacking to date. Here, we present the "substrate-inhibitor concept" which describes the dependence of calcification rates on carbonate chemistry speciation. It is based on observations that calcification rate scales positively with bicarbonate (HCO3-), the primary substrate for calcification, and carbon dioxide (CO2), which can limit cell growth, whereas it is inhibited by protons (H+). This concept was implemented in a model equation, tested against experimental data, and then applied to understand and reconcile the diverging responses of coccolithophorid calcification rates to ocean acidification obtained in culture experiments. Furthermore, we (i) discuss how other important calcification-influencing factors (e.g. temperature and light) could be implemented in our concept and (ii) embed it in Hutchinson's niche theory, thereby providing a framework for how carbonate chemistry-induced changes in calcification rates could be linked with changing coccolithophore abundance in the oceans. Our results suggest that the projected increase of H+ in the near future (next couple of thousand years), paralleled by only a minor increase of inorganic carbon substrate, could impede calcification rates if coccolithophores are unable to fully adapt. However, if calcium carbonate (CaCO3) sediment dissolution and terrestrial weathering begin to increase the oceans' HCO3- and decrease its H+ concentrations in the far future (10 -100 kyears), coccolithophores could find themselves in carbonate chemistry conditions which may be more favorable for calcification than they were before the Anthropocene.