6 resultados para errors-in-variables model
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Ocean acidification (OA) due to atmospheric CO2 rise is expected to influence marine primary productivity. In order to investigate the interactive effects of OA and light changes on diatoms, we grew Phaeodactylum tricornutum, under ambient (390 ppmv; LC) and elevated CO2 (1000 ppmv; HC) conditions for 80 generations, and measured its physiological performance under different light levels (60 µmol/m**2/s, LL; 200 µmol/m**2/s, ML; 460 µmol/m**2/s, HL) for another 25 generations. The specific growth rate of the HC-grown cells was higher (about 12-18%) than that of the LC-grown ones, with the highest under the ML level. With increasing light levels, the effective photochemical yield of PSII (Fv'/Fm') decreased, but was enhanced by the elevated CO2, especially under the HL level. The cells acclimated to the HC condition showed a higher recovery rate of their photochemical yield of PSII compared to the LC-grown cells. For the HC-grown cells, dissolved inorganic carbon or CO2 levels for half saturation of photosynthesis (K1/2 DIC or K1/2 CO2) increased by 11, 55 and 32%, under the LL, ML and HL levels, reflecting a light dependent down-regulation of carbon concentrating mechanisms (CCMs). The linkage between higher level of the CCMs down-regulation and higher growth rate at ML under OA supports the theory that the saved energy from CCMs down-regulation adds on to enhance the growth of the diatom.
Resumo:
ix Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites, in the Northwest Atlantic have been used to investigate kinematic and chemical changes in the "Western Boundary Undercurrent" (WBUC) during the development of full glacial conditions across the Marine Isotope Stage 5a/4 boundary (~70,000 years ago). Sortable silt mean grain size(sort s) measurements are employed to examine changes in near bottom flow speeds, together with carbon isotopes measured in benthic foraminifera and % planktic foraminiferal fragmentation as proxies for changes in water-mass chemistry. A depth transect of cores, spanning 1.8-4.6 km depth, allows changes in both the strength and depth of the WBUC to be constrained across millennial scale events. Sort s measurements reveal that the flow speed structure of the WBUC during warm intervals ("interstadials") was comparable to modern (Holocene) conditions. However, significant differences are observed during cold intervals, with higher relative flow speeds inferred for the shallow component of the WBUC (~2 km depth) during all cold "stadial" intervals (including Heinrich Stadial 6), and a substantial weakening of the deep component (~3-4 km) during full glacial conditions. Our results therefore reveal that the onset of full glacial conditions was associated with a regime shift to a shallower mode of circulation (involving Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water) that was quantitatively distinct from preceding cold stadial events. Furthermore, our chemical proxy data show that the physical response of the WBUC during the last glacial inception was probably coupled to basin-wide changes in the water-mass composition of the deep Northwest Atlantic.
Resumo:
Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.
Resumo:
High-latitude ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle and in regulating the climate system and are presently undergoing rapid environmental change. Accurate land cover data sets are required to both document these changes as well as to provide land-surface information for benchmarking and initializing Earth system models. Earth system models also require specific land cover classification systems based on plant functional types (PFTs), rather than species or ecosystems, and so post-processing of existing land cover data is often required. This study compares over Siberia, multiple land cover data sets against one another and with auxiliary data to identify key uncertainties that contribute to variability in PFT classifications that would introduce errors in Earth system modeling. Land cover classification systems from GLC 2000, GlobCover 2005 and 2009, and MODIS collections 5 and 5.1 are first aggregated to a common legend, and then compared to high-resolution land cover classification systems, vegetation continuous fields (MODIS VCFs) and satellite-derived tree heights (to discriminate against sparse, shrub, and forest vegetation). The GlobCover data set, with a lower threshold for tree cover and taller tree heights and a better spatial resolution, tends to have better distributions of tree cover compared to high-resolution data. It has therefore been chosen to build new PFT maps for the ORCHIDEE land surface model at 1 km scale. Compared to the original PFT data set, the new PFT maps based on GlobCover 2005 and an updated cross-walking approach mainly differ in the characterization of forests and degree of tree cover. The partition of grasslands and bare soils now appears more realistic compared with ground truth data. This new vegetation map provides a framework for further development of new PFTs in the ORCHIDEE model like shrubs, lichens and mosses, to represent the water and carbon cycles in northern latitudes better. Updated land cover data sets are critical for improving and maintaining the relevance of Earth system models for assessing climate and human impacts on biogeochemistry and biophysics.
Resumo:
The characteristics of a global set-up of the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model under forcing of the period 1958-2004 are presented. The model set-up is designed to study the variability in the deep-water mass formation areas and was therefore regionally better resolved in the deep-water formation areas in the Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea, Weddell Sea and Ross Sea. The sea-ice model reproduces realistic sea-ice distributions and variabilities in the sea-ice extent of both hemispheres as well as sea-ice transport that compares well with observational data. Based on a comparison between model and ocean weather ship data in the North Atlantic, we observe that the vertical structure is well captured in areas with a high resolution. In our model set-up, we are able to simulate decadal ocean variability including several salinity anomaly events and corresponding fingerprint in the vertical hydrography. The ocean state of the model set-up features pronounced variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the associated mixed layer depth pattern in the North Atlantic deep-water formation areas.