Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of oysters Crassostrea virginica during experiments, 2010

Estuarine organisms are exposed to periodic strong fluctuations in seawater pH driven by biological carbon dioxide (CO2) production, which may in the future be further exacerbated by the ocean acidification associated with the global rise in CO2. Calcium carbonate-producing marine species such as mollusks are expected to be vulnerable to acidification of estuarine waters, since elevated CO2 concentration and lower pH lead to a decrease in the degree of saturation of water with respect to calcium carbonate, potentially affecting biomineralization. Our study demonstrates that the increase in CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) in seawater and associated decrease in pH within the environmentally relevant range for estuaries have negative effects on physiology, rates of shell deposition and mechanical properties of the shells of eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica (Gmelin). High CO2 levels (pH ~7.5, pCO2 ~3500 µatm) caused significant increases in juvenile mortality rates and inhibited both shell and soft-body growth compared to the control conditions (pH ~8.2, pCO2 ~380 µatm). Furthermore, elevated CO2 concentrations resulted in higher standard metabolic rates in oyster juveniles, likely due to the higher energy cost of homeostasis. The high CO2 conditions also led to changes in the ultrastructure and mechanical properties of shells, including increased thickness of the calcite laths within the hypostracum and reduced hardness and fracture toughness of the shells, indicating that elevated CO2 levels have negative effects on the biomineralization process. These data strongly suggest that the rise in CO2 can impact physiology and biomineralization in marine calcifiers such as eastern oysters, threatening their survival and potentially leading to profound ecological and economic impacts in estuarine ecosystems.

Homogeneous Spatial Units (HSU) - a Pan-European geographical basis for environmental and socio-economic modelling

The spatial data set delineates areas with similar environmental properties regarding soil, terrain morphology, climate and affiliation to the same administrative unit (NUTS3 or comparable units in size) at a minimum pixel size of 1km2. The scope of developing this data set is to provide a link between spatial environmental information (e.g. soil properties) and statistical data (e.g. crop distribution) available at administrative level. Impact assessment of agricultural management on emissions of pollutants or radiative active gases, or analysis regarding the influence of agricultural management on the supply of ecosystem services, require the proper spatial coincidence of the driving factors. The HSU data set provides e.g. the link between the agro-economic model CAPRI and biophysical assessment of environmental impacts (updating previously spatial units, Leip et al. 2008), for the analysis of policy scenarios. Recently, a statistical model to disaggregate crop information available from regional statistics to the HSU has been developed (Lamboni et al. 2016). The HSU data set consists of the spatial layers provided in vector and raster format as well as attribute tables with information on the properties of the HSU. All input data for the delineation the HSU is publicly available. For some parameters the attribute tables provide the link between the HSU data set and e.g. the soil map(s) rather than the data itself. The HSU data set is closely linked the USCIE data set.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.