4 resultados para distribution (probability theory)

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Significant synchronous shifts in the chemistry, mineralogy, grain sizes and color of the sediments at 6 m below sea floor (mbsf) at ODP Site 1195 on the Marion Plateau (NE Australia) are interpreted to reflect a major regional paleoceanographic change: the initiation of the southern province of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The onset of this massive carbonate production centre nearby resulted primarily in increased deposition of carbonate-rich sediments of neritic origin. Both sedimentation rate and terrigenous input record a coincident decline attributed to inshore trapping of materials behind the reefs. Our best estimate places the development of reef framework in the southern part of the GBR between 560 and 670 kyr B.P., based on an age model combining magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data. The proposed estimation agrees with previous studies reporting an age between 500 and 930 kyr B.P., constraining more tightly their results. However, it does not support research placing the birth of the GBR in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (~400 kyr), nor the theory of a worldwide modern barrier reef development at that time.

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The mid-Piacenzian (MP) warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) has been identified as the most recent time in geologic history during which mean global surface temperatures were considerably warmer than today for a sustained period. This interval has therefore been proposed as a potential (albeit imperfect) analog for future climate change and as such, has received much scientific attention over the past two decades. Central to this research effort is the Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project, an iterative paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the MP focused on increasing our understanding of warm-period climate forcings, dynamics, and feedbacks by providing three-dimensional data sets for general circulation models. A mainstay of the PRISM project has been the development of a global sea surface temperature (SST) data set based primarily upon quantitative analyses of planktic foraminifer assemblages, supplemented with geochemical SST estimates wherever possible. In order to improve spatial coverage of the PRISM faunal data set in the low and mid-latitude North Atlantic, this study provides a description of the MP planktic foraminifer assemblage from five Ocean Drilling Program sites (951, 958, 1006, 1062, and 1063) in the subtropical gyre, a region critical to Atlantic Ocean circulation and tropical heat advection. Assemblages from each core provide evidence for a temperature- and circulation-driven 5-10° northward displacement of MP faunal provinces, as well as regional shifts in planktic foraminifer populations linked to species ecology and interactions. General biogeographic trends also indicate that, relative to modern conditions, gyre circulation was stronger (particularly the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current, and North Equatorial Current) and meridionally broader. A comparison of mid-Piacenzian and modern North Atlantic planktic foraminifer assemblages suggests that low latitude western boundary currents were less than 1 °C warmer while eastern boundary currents were ~1-2 °C warmer, supporting the hypothesis of enhanced northward heat advection along western boundary currents and warming of high latitude Northeast Atlantic source regions for the Canary Current. These findings are consistent with a model of reduced meridional SST gradients, with little-to-no low latitude warming, and more vigorous ocean circulation. Results therefore support the theory that enhanced meridional overturn circulation and associated northward heat advection made an important contribution, in conjunction with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, to the 2-3 °C global surface temperature increase (relative to today) and strong polar amplification of SST warmth during the MP warm period.

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Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.