5 resultados para confidence intervals

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Arctic permafrost landscapes are among the most vulnerable and dynamic landscapes globally, but due to their extent and remoteness most of the landscape changes remain unnoticed. In order to detect disturbances in these areas we developed an automated processing chain for the calculation and analysis of robust trends of key land surface indicators based on the full record of available Landsat TM, ETM +, and OLI data. The methodology was applied to the ~ 29,000 km**2 Lena Delta in Northeast Siberia, where robust trend parameters (slope, confidence intervals of the slope, and intercept) were calculated for Tasseled Cap Greenness, Wetness and Brightness, NDVI, and NDWI, and NDMI based on 204 Landsat scenes for the observation period between 1999 and 2014. The resulting datasets revealed regional greening trends within the Lena Delta with several localized hot-spots of change, particularly in the vicinity of the main river channels. With a 30-m spatial resolution various permafrost-thaw related processes and disturbances, such as thermokarst lake expansion and drainage, fluvial erosion, and coastal changes were detected within the Lena Delta region, many of which have not been noticed or described before. Such hotspots of permafrost change exhibit significantly different trend parameters compared to non-disturbed areas. The processed dataset, which is made freely available through the data archive PANGAEA, will be a useful resource for further process specific analysis by researchers and land managers. With the high level of automation and the use of the freely available Landsat archive data, the workflow is scalable and transferrable to other regions, which should enable the comparison of land surface changes in different permafrost affected regions and help to understand and quantify permafrost landscape dynamics.

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To understand the role of the ocean within the global carbon cycle, detailed information is required on key-processes within the marine carbon cycle; bio-production in the upper ocean, export of the produced material to the deep ocean and the storage of carbon in oceanic sediments. Quantification of these processes requires the separation of signals of net primary production and the rate of organic matter decay as reflected in fossil sediments. This study examines the large differences in degradation rates of organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst species to separate these degradation and productivity signals. For this, accumulation rates of cyst species known to be resistant (R-cysts) or sensitive (S-cysts) to aerobic degradation of 62 sites are compared to mean annual chlorophyll-a, sea-surface temperature, sea-surface salinity, nitrate and phosphate concentrations of the upper waters and deep-water oxygen concentrations. Furthermore, the degradation of sensitive cysts, as expressed by the degradation constant k and reaction time t, has been related to bottom water [O2]. The studied sediments were taken from the Arabian Sea, north-western African Margin (North Atlantic), western-equatorial Atlantic Ocean/Caraibic, south-western African margin (South Atlantic) and Southern Ocean (Atlantic sector). Significant relationships are observed between (a) accumulation rates of R-cysts and upper water chlorophyll-a concentrations, (b) accumulation rates of S-cysts and bottom water [O2] and (c) degradation rates of S-cysts (kt) and bottom water [O2]. Relationships that are extremely weak or are clearly insignificant on all confidence intervals are between (1) S-cyst accumulation rates and chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea-surface temperature (SST), sea-surface salinity (SSS), phosphate concentrations (P) and nitrate concentrations (N), (2) between R-cyst accumulation rates and bottom water [O2], SST, SSS, P and N, and between (3) kt and water depth. Co-variance is present between the parameters N and P, N, P and chlorophyll-a, oxygen and water depth. Correcting for this co-variance does not influence the significance of the relationship given above. The possible applicability of dinoflagellate cyst degradation to estimate past net primary production and deep ocean ventilation is discussed.

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Pb and Ba concentrations and Pb isotopic compositions are reported for firn core and snow pit samples from Victoria Land, Antarctica, dating from 1872 AD to 1994 AD. From variations in Pb/Ba ratios and Pb isotopic compositions, two periods of major Pb enhancements were identified, from 1891 to 1908 AD and from 1948 to 1994 AD. The earlier pollution event is attributed to Pb emissions from non-ferrous metal production and coal combustion in the Southern Hemisphere and is in excellent agreement with coincident pollution inputs reported in firn/ice cores from two other regions of Antarctica, at Coats Land and Law Dome. Using Pb isotopic systematics, it was calculated that ~50% of Pb deposited in Victoria Land in 1897 originated from anthropogenic emission sources. The more recent period of Pb enhancements, from 1948 to 1994 AD, corresponds to the introduction and widespread use of gasoline alkyl Pb additives in automobiles in the Southern Hemisphere, with anthropogenic Pb inputs averaging 60% of total Pb but with large uncertainty. Intra- and inter-annual variations in Pb concentrations and isotopic compositions were evaluated in snow pits samples corresponding to the period 1991-1994. Substantial variations in Pb/ Ba and 206Pb/207Pb ratios were detected but the absence of a regular seasonal pattern for these parameters suggests that the transport and deposition of aerosols to the Antarctic ice sheet are complex and vary from year to year.

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Bedding dips in the CRP-2A drillhole were determined in two ways (1) analysis of a dipmeter log, and (2) identification of bed boundaries on digital images of the outer core surface. The two methods document the downhole increase in structural dip, to a maximum of 15° in the lowest 150 m of the hole. Dipmeter data, which are azimuthally oriented, indicate a 75° azimuth for structural tilting, in agreement with seismic reflection profiles. Core and log dips indicate that structural dip increases by 5-7° between 325 and 480 mbsf. Both, however, also exhibit high dip inhomogeneity because of depositional (e.g., cross bedding) and post-depositional (e.g., softsediment deformation) processes. This variability adds ambiguity to the search for angular unconformities within the CRP-2A drillhole. Dip directions of different lithologies are generally similar, as are dip directions for the four kinds of systems tracts. Downdip azimuths of sands and muds are slightly different from those of diamicts, possibly reflecting the divergence between ENE offshore dip and ESE glacial advance.