Table 1. Tree growth index and reconstructed precipitation series from 515 BC to AD 1993 based on the archaeological and living tree ring datasets from Dulan and Shenge, China

Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74-25 BC, AD 51-375, 426-500, 526-575, 626-700, 1100-1225, 1251-1325, 1451-1525, 1651-1750 and 1801-1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred during AD 376-425, 576-625, 951-1050, 1351-1375, 1551-1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years.

Population structure, growth and production of the surf clam Donax hanleyanus (Bivalvia: Donacidae) from northern Argentinean beaches

The surf clams Mesodesma mactroides Reeve, 1854 and Donax hanleyanus Philippi, 1847 are the two dominating species in macrobenthic communities of sandy beaches off northern Argentina, with the latter now surpassing M. mactroides populations in abundance and biomass. Before stock decimation caused by exploitation (during the 1940s and 1950s) and mass mortality events (1995, 1999 and 2007) M. mactroides was the prominent primary consumer in the intertidal ecosystem and an important economic resource in Argentina. Since D. hanleyanus was not commercially fished and not affected by mass mortality events, it took over as the dominant species, but did never reach the former abundance of M. mactroides. Currently abundance and biomass of both surf clams are a multiple smaller than those of forty years ago, indicating the conservation status of D. hanleyanus and M. mactroides as endangered. Therefore the aim of this study is to analyse the population dynamics (population structure, growth and reproductive biology) of D. hanleyanus and M. mactroides, and to compare the results with historical data in order to detect possible differences within surf clam populations forty years ago and at present.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

delta Deuterium of alkenone and BIT index of sediment core 64PE304-80 samples

Reconstructing past ocean salinity is important for assessing paleoceanographic change and therefore past climatic dynamics. Commonly, sea water salinity reconstruction is based on foraminifera oxygen isotope ratio values combined with sea surface temperature reconstruction. However, the approach relies on multiple proxies, resulting in relatively large uncertainty and, consequently, relatively low accuracy of salinity estimates. An alternative tool for past ocean salinity reconstruction is the hydrogen isotope composition of long chain (C37) alkenones (dDalkenone). Here, we applied dDalkenone to a 39 ka long coastal sediment record from the Eastern South African continental shelf in the Mozambique Channel, close to the Zambezi River mouth. Despite changes in global sea water dD related to glacial - interglacial ice volume effects, no clear changes were observed in the dDalkenone record throughout the entire 39 ka. The BIT index record from the same core showed high BIT values during the glacial and low values during the Holocene. This indicates a more pronounced freshwater influence at the core location during the glacial, resulting in alkenones depleted in deuterium during that time and, thereby, explains the lack of a clear glacial-interglacial alkenone dD shift. Correlation between the BIT index and dDalkenone during the glacial period suggests that increased continental runoff potentially changed the growth conditions of the alkenone producing haptophytes, promoting coastal haptophyte species with generally more enriched dDalkenone values. We therefore suggest that the application of dDalkenone for reconstructing past salinity in coastal settings may be complicated by changes in the alkenone producing haptophyte community.

Chemical analysis with regard to global and local climatic forcing measured on sediment core GeoB3711-1, GeoB3711-3 and GeoB4917-8

Global and local climatic forcing, e.g. concentration of atmospheric CO2 or insolation, influence the distribution of C3 and C4 plants in southwest Africa. C4 plants dominate in more arid and warmer areas and are favoured by lower pCO2 levels. Several studies have assessed past and present continental vegetation by the analysis of terrestrial n-alkanes in near-coastal deep sea sediments using single samples or a small number of samples from a given climatic stage. The objectives of this study were to evaluate vegetation changes in southwest Africa with regard to climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene and to elucidate the potential of single sample simplifications. We analysed two sediment cores at high resolution, altogether ca. 240 samples, from the Southeast Atlantic Ocean (20°S and 12°S) covering the time spans of 18 to 1 ka and 56 to 2 ka, respectively. Our results for 20°S showed marginally decreasing C4 plant domination (of ca. 5%) during deglaciation based on average chain length (ACL27-33 values) and carbon isotopic composition of the C31 and C33 n-alkanes. Values for single samples from 18 ka and the Holocene overlap and, thus, are not significantly representative of the climatic stages they derive from. In contrast, at 12°S the n-alkane parameters show a clear difference of plant type for the Late Pleistocene (C4 plant domination, 66% C4 on average) and the Holocene (C3 plant domination, 40% C4 on average). During deglaciation vegetation change highly correlates with the increase in pCO2 (r² = 0.91). Short-term climatic events such as Heinrich Stadials or Antarctic warming periods are not reflected by vegetation changes in the catchment area. Instead, smaller vegetation fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene occur in accordance with local variations of insolation.

Stable isotope ratios and chemistry on corals from the Caribbean Sea

Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

A late Quaternary planktonic foraminifer faunal record of rapid climatic changes of sediment core GIK17938-2

A high-resolution planktonic foraminifer record from a core recovered from the South China Sea (SCS) (Sonne 17938-2: 19°47.2'N, 117° 32.3E; 2840 m; Delta t c. 250-1000 years) shows rapid millennial-scale changes in the western Pacific marginal sea climate during the last 30,000 years. The SCS is the largest western Pacific marginal sea off the southeast Asian continent, the area today dominated by seasonal monsoon changes. Quantitative analyses of planktonic foraminifer faunal abundance data frorn the core indicate large downcore variations in the relative abundances of the dominant taxa since about 30,000 years ago in the isotope stage 3. Further analyses indicate that the abundance of G. inflata, a good indicator species for cold SST (~13°-19°C) and deep MLD (~100-125 m) waters shows abrupt shifts. During stages 2 and 3, the abundance record of G. infiata tends to be punctuated by quasi-periodie short intervals (~2000-3000 yrs) where its abundance reaches 15% or greater, superimposed on generally low (5-10%) background values. This pattern suggests an instability of surface ocean conditions of the SCS during the past 30,000 years. The abrupt abundance changes of G. infiata correlate well with similar climatic changes observed from a GISP2 ice core 8180, and North Atlantic core DSDP 609 N. pachyderma (s.) and lithic grain abundances during 'Heinrich evcnts'. These results suggest that the millennial-scale variability of climate is not peculiar to the Atlantic region. Apparently, the rapid SCS climatic changes during Heinrich events are driven by effective mechanisms, of particularly the effects of shifts in the latitudinal position of the Siberia High Pressure System.

A new modern analogue reference dataset and its application to the 430-kyr pollen record from Lake Biwa

This study presents a newly compiled dataset of modern pollen and climate data from 798 sites across Japan and the Russian Far East. This comprehensive reference dataset combined with the modern analogue technique (MAT) provides a powerful tool for pollen-based reconstruction of the Quaternary Northwest Pacific climate. Pollen-derived reconstruction of the modern climate at the reference pollen-sampling sites matches well with the estimated modern climate values (R2 values vary between 0.79 and 0.95, and RMSEP values vary between 5.8 and 9.7% of the modern climatic range for all nine tested variables). The successful testing of the method encourages its application to the fossil pollen records. We used a coarse-resolution pollen record from Lake Biwa to reconstruct glacial-interglacial climate dynamics in central Japan since ~438 kyr and compared it to the earlier reconstruction based on a less representative reference dataset. The current and earlier results consistently demonstrate that the coldest glacial intervals experienced pronounced cooling in winter and moderate cooling in summer, supporting the growth of cool mixed forest (COMX) where warm mixed forest (WAMX) predominates today. During the last glacial, maximum (~24 kyr BP) mean temperatures of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month were about -13 °C (RMSEP = 2.34 °C) and 21 °C (RMSEP = 1.66 °C) respectively, and annual precipitation (PANN) was about 800 mm (RMSEP = 158.06 mm). During the thermal optimums of the interglacial intervals, the temperatures of the coldest and warmest month were above 0 °C and 25 °C respectively, leading to the reconstruction of WAMX and temperate conifer forest (TECO). Although both these vegetation types grow in the southern part of Japan today, WAMX requires warmer space. The presence of WAMX during marine isotope stages (MIS) 11 and 1, and its absence during MIS 9 and MIS 5 contradict the marine isotope and Antarctic ice records, suggesting that the latter two interglacials were the warmest of the last 800 kyr. The apparent contradiction allows at least three different explanations including low temporal resolution of the pollen record; different trends in CO2 concentrations during 'short' and 'long' interglacials; and regional climate variability and non-linear response of different regions to the global forcing. More definitive conclusions will be possible on the basis of forthcoming high-resolution pollen records from central Japan.

Simulated temperature changes as a result of Antarctic ice sheet growth and CO2 reduction

During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.

(Table 2) Distribution of alkenone unsaturation index UK37 of the eastern North Atlantic

This paper reports the concentrations and within-class distributions of long-chain alkenones and alkyl alkenoates in the surface waters (0-50 m) of the eastern North Atlantic, and correlates their abundance and distribution with those of source organisms and with water temperature and other environmental variables. We collected these samples of >0.8 µm particulate material from the euphotic zone along the JGOFS 20°W longitude transect, from 61°N to 24°N, during seven cruises of the UK-JGOFS Biogeochemical Ocean Flux Study (BOFS) in 1989-1991; the biogeographical range of our 53 samples extends from the cold (<10°C), nutrient-rich and highly productive subarctic waters of the Iceland Basin to the warm (>25°C) oligotrophic subtropical waters off Africa. Surface water concentrations of total alkenone and alkenoates ranged from <50 ng/l in oligotrophic waters below 40°N to 2000-4500 ng/l in high latitude E. huxleyi blooms, and were well correlated with E. huxleyi cell densities, supporting the assumption that E. huxleyi is the predominant source of these compounds in the present day North Atlantic. The within-class distribution of the C37 and C38 alkenones and C36 alkenoates varied strongly as a function of temperature, and was largely unaffected by nutrient concentration, bloom status and other surface water properties. The biosynthetic response of the source organisms to growth temperature differed between the cold (<16°C) waters above 47°N and the warmer waters to the south. In cold (<16°C) waters above 47°N, the relative amounts of alkenoates and C38 alkenones synthesized was a strong function of growth temperature, while the unsaturation ratio of the alkenones (C37 and C38) was uncorrelated with temperature. Conversely, in warm (>16°C) waters below 47°N, the relative proportions of alkenoates and alkenones synthesized remained constant with increasing temperature while the unsaturation ratios of the C37 and C38 methyl alkenones (Uk37 and Uk38Me, respectively) increased linearly. The fitted regressions of Uk37 and Uk38Me versus temperature for waters >16°C were both highly significant (r**2 > 0.96) and had identical slopes (0.057) that were 50% higher than the slope (0.034) of the temperature calibration of Uk37 reported by Prahl and Wakeham (1987; doi:10.1038/330367a0) over the same temperature range. These observations suggest either a physiological adjustment in biochemical response to growth temperature above a 16-17°C threshold and/or variation between different E. huxleyi strains and/or related species inhabiting the cold and warm water regions of the eastern North Atlantic. Using our North Atlantic data set, we have produced multivariate temperature calibrations incorporating all major features of the alkenone and alkenoate data set. Predicted temperatures using multivariate calibrations are largely unbiased, with a standard error of approximately ±1°C over the entire data range. In contrast, simpler calibration models cannot adequately incorporate regional diversity and nonlinear trends with temperature. Our results indicate that calibrations based upon single variables, such as Uk37, can be strongly biased by unknown systematic errors arising from natural variability in the biosynthetic response of the source organisms to growth temperature. Multivariate temperature calibration can be expected to give more precise estimates of Integrated Production Temperatures (IPT) in the sedimentary record over a wider range of paleoenvironmental conditions, when derived using a calibration data set incorporating a similar range of natural variability in biosynthetic response.