Medem Channel profiles based on stand-alone model simulation and corrections with nudging

State-of-the-art process-based models have shown to be applicable to the simulation and prediction of coastal morphodynamics. On annual to decadal temporal scales, these models may show limitations in reproducing complex natural morphological evolution patterns, such as the movement of bars and tidal channels, e.g. the observed decadal migration of the Medem Channel in the Elbe Estuary, German Bight. Here a morphodynamic model is shown to simulate the hydrodynamics and sediment budgets of the domain to some extent, but fails to adequately reproduce the pronounced channel migration, due to the insufficient implementation of bank erosion processes. In order to allow for long-term simulations of the domain, a nudging method has been introduced to update the model-predicted bathymetries with observations. The model-predicted bathymetry is nudged towards true states in annual time steps. Sensitivity analysis of a user-defined correlation length scale, for the definition of the background error covariance matrix during the nudging procedure, suggests that the optimal error correlation length is similar to the grid cell size, here 80-90 m. Additionally, spatially heterogeneous correlation lengths produce more realistic channel depths than do spatially homogeneous correlation lengths. Consecutive application of the nudging method compensates for the (stand-alone) model prediction errors and corrects the channel migration pattern, with a Brier skill score of 0.78. The proposed nudging method in this study serves as an analytical approach to update model predictions towards a predefined 'true' state for the spatiotemporal interpolation of incomplete morphological data in long-term simulations.

Stable hydrogen and carbon isotope records and concentration data for four long chain n-alkanes from core GIK16160-3 derived from the Zambezi delta in the Mozambique Channel during the last 37,000 years

Hydrogen isotope values (dD) of sedimentary terrestrial leaf wax such as n-alkanes or n-acids have been used to map and understand past changes in rainfall amount in the tropics because dD of precipitation is commonly assumed as the first order controlling factor of leaf wax dD. Plant functional types and their photosynthetic pathways can also affect leaf wax dD but these biological effects are rarely taken into account in paleo studies relying on this rainfall proxy. To investigate how biological effects may influence dD values we here present a 37,000-year old record of dD and stable carbon isotopes (d13C) measured on four n-alkanes (n-C27, n-C29, n-C31, n-C33) from a marine sediment core collected off the Zambezi River mouth. Our paleo d13C records suggest that each individual n-alkanes had different C3/C4 proportional contributions. n-C29 was mostly derived from a C3 dicots (trees, shrubs and forbs) dominant vegetation throughout the entire record. In contrast, the longer chain n-C33 and n-C31 were mostly contributed by C4 grasses during the Glacial period but shifted to a mixture of C4 grasses and C3 dicots during the Holocene. Strong correlations between dD and d13C values of n-C33 (correlation coefficient R2 = 0.75, n = 58) and n-C31 (R2 = 0.48, n = 58) suggest that their dD values were strongly influenced by changes in the relative contributions of C3/C4 plant types in contrast to n-C29 (R2 = 0.07, n = 58). Within regions with variable C3/C4 input, we conclude that dD values of n-C29 are the most reliable and unbiased indicator for past changes in rainfall, and that dD and d13C values of n-C31 and n-C33 are sensitive to C3/C4 vegetation changes. Our results demonstrate that a robust interpretation of palaeohydrological data using n-alkane dD requires additional knowledge of regional vegetation changes from which nalkanes are synthesized, and that the combination of dD and d13C values of multiple n-alkanes can help to differentiate biological effects from those related to the hydrological cycle.

Temperatures, salinity, wind speed, grain sizes and foraminifera abundance in the Great Belt Channel, western Baltic Sea

The Great Belt, the largest inlet to the Baltic Sea, has a deep and well defined channel system. A distinct thermohaline layer at roughly 18 to 20 m of water depth separates the saltier and generally cooler deeper North Sea water from the brackish and warmer surface water. It is practically a current dominated area, with the strongest bottom currents due to prolonged west winds. The size and shape of the surface sediments and their grain size distributions show a close relationship with the prevailing hydrographical conditions. Southerly current marks predominate while northerly directions are confined to 10 to 14 m of water depth. The degree of bioturbation is highest in the uppermost sedimentary cover where practically all original stratification has been destroyed. Various bioturbate structures have been identified with the fauna. Coiling ratios of Ammonia beccarii (Linnaeus) have been successfully applied for correlation in the postglacial sediments of the early Littorina Transgression. The succession shows that in the Boreal brackish water conditions were probably followed by peat and limnic sediments as the sea regressed. With the Littorina Transgression, the sea again entered the area and high sedimentation rates resulted in the major deposits of the Great Belt. At least for the last 4000 years, sedimentation rates had been very low. Present day currents sweep out the sediments, mainly to the southern marginal areas.