A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Oil viscosity from experiments and model calculations

Five frequently-used models were chosen and evaluated to calculate the viscosity of the mixed oil. Totally twenty mixed oil samples were prepared with different ratios of light to crude oil from different oil wells but the same oil field. The viscosities of the mixtures under the same shear rates of 10 s**-1 were measured using a rotation viscometer at the temperatures ranging from 30°C to 120°C. After comparing all of the experimental data with the corresponding model values, the best one of the five models for this oil field was determined. Using the experimental data, one model with a better accuracy than the existing models was developed to calculate the viscosity of mixed oils. Another model was derived to predict the viscosity of mixed oils at different temperatures and different values of mixing ratio of light to heavy oil.

Geochemistry of Eocene sediments from ODP Site 171-1052 on the Black Nose, Atlantic Ocean

We use an X-ray fluorescence (XRF) Core Scanner to obtain records of elemental concentrations in sediment cores from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 171B, Site 1052 (Blake Nose, Atlantic margin of northern Florida).This record spans the Middle to Late Eocene, as indicated by bio- and magnetostratigraphy, and displays cyclicity that can be attributed to the orbital forcing of a combination of climate, ocean circulation, or productivity. We use the XRF counts of iron and calcium as a proxy of the relative contribution from calcium carbonate and terrestrial material to construct a new composite depth record. This new composite depth record provides the basis to extend the astronomically calibrated geological time scale into the Middle Eocene and results in revised estimates for the age and duration of magnetochrons C16 through C18. In addition, we find an apparent change in the dominance of orbitally driven changes in obliquity and climatic precession at around 36.7 Ma on our new time scale. Long term amplitude modulation patterns of eccentricity and obliquity in the data do not seem to match the current astronomical model any more, suggesting the possibility of new constraints on astronomical calculations.

Geochemical characterization of black shales from the Tarfaya Basin

Organic geochemical and petrological investigations were carried out on Cenomanian/Turonian black shales from three sample sites in the Tarfaya Basin (SW Morocco) to characterize the sedimentary organic matter. These black shales have a variable bulk and molecular geochemical composition reflecting changes in the quantity and quality of the organic matter. High TOC contents (up to 18wt%) and hydrogen indices between 400 and 800 (mgHC/gTOC) indicate hydrogen-rich organic matter (Type I-II kerogen) which qualifies these laminated black shale sequences as excellent oil-prone source rocks. Low Tmax values obtained from Rock-Eval pyrolysis (404-425 MC) confirm an immature to early mature level of thermal maturation. Organic petrological studies indicate that the kerogen is almost entirely composed of bituminite particles. These unstructured organic aggregates were most probably formed by intensive restructuring of labile biopolymers (lipids and/or carbohydrates), with the incorporation of sulphur into the kerogen during early diagenesis. Total lipid analyses performed after desulphurization of the total extract shows that the biomarkers mostly comprise short-chain n-alkanes (C16-C22) and long-chain (C25-C35) n-alkanes with no obvious odd-over-even predominance, together with steranes, hopanoids and acyclic isoprenoids. The presence of isorenieratane derivatives originating from green sulphur bacteria indicates that dissolved sulphide had reached the photic zone at shallow water depths (~100m) during times of deposition. These conditions probably favoured intensive sulphurization of the organic matter. Flash pyrolysis GC-MS analysis of the kerogen indicates the aliphatic nature of the bulk organic carbon. The vast majority of pyrolysis products are sulphur-containing components such as alkylthiophenes, alkenylthiophenes and alkybenzothiophenes. Abundant sulphurization of the Tarfaya Basin kerogen resulted from excess sulphide and metabolizable organic matter combined with a limited availability of iron during early diagenesis. The observed variability in the intensity of OM sulphurization may be attributed to sea level-driven fluctuations in the palaeoenvironment during sedimentation.

Organic geochemical character and hydrocarbon source potential of selected black shales at DSDP Hole 93-603B

LECO analysis, pyrolysis assay, and bitumen and elemental analysis were used to characterize the organic matter of 23 black shale samples from Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 93, Hole 603B, located in the western North Atlantic. The organic matter is dominantly gas-prone and/or refractory. Two cores within the Turonian and Cenomanian, however, contained significant quantities of well-preserved, hydrogen-enriched, organic matter. This material is thermally immature and represents a potential oil-prone source rock. These sediments do not appear to have been deposited within a stagnant, euxinic ocean as would be consistent with an "oceanic anoxic event." Their organic geochemical and sedimentary character is more consistent with deposition by turbidity currents originating on the continental shelf and slope.

Black shales from the Upper Aptian and Lower Albanian of the Volcontian Basin

Calcareous nannoplankton, palynomorph, benthic foraminifera, and oxygen isotope records from the supraregionally distributed Niveau Paquier (Early Albian age, Oceanic Anoxic Event 1b) and regionally distributed Niveau Kilian (Late Aptian age) black shales in the Vocontian Basin (SE France) exhibit variations that reflect paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic changes in the mid-Cretaceous low latitudes. To quantify surface water productivity and temperature changes, nutrient and temperature indices based on calcareous nannofossils were developed. The nutrient index strongly varies in the precessional band, whereas variations of the temperature index reflect eccentricity. Since polar ice caps were not present during the mid-Cretaceous, these variations probably result from feedback mechanisms within a monsoonal climate system of the mid-Cretaceous low latitudes involving warm/humid and cool/dry cycles. A model is proposed that explains the formation of mid-Cretaceous black shales through monsoonally driven changes in temperature and evaporation/precipitation patterns. The Lower Albian Niveau Paquier, which has a supraregional distribution, formed under extremely warm and humid conditions when monsoonal intensity was strongest. Bottom water ventilation in the Vocontian Basin was diminished, probably due to increased precipitation and reduced evaporation in regions of deep water formation at low latitudes. Surface water productivity in the Vocontian Basin was controlled by the strength of monsoonal winds. The Upper Aptian Niveau Kilian, which has a regional distribution only, formed under a less warm and humid climate than the Niveau Paquier. Low-latitude deep water formation was reduced to a lesser extent and/or on regional scale only. The threshold for the formation of a supraregional black shale was not reached. The intensity of increases in temperature and humidity controlled whether black shales developed on a regional or supraregional scale. At least in the Vocontian Basin, the increased preservation of organic matter at the sea floor was more significant in black shale formation than the role of enhanced productivity.

Organic matter from black shales collected in DSDP Holes 41-367 and 41-368

It is shown that microscopic algae dominate in source material of organic matter of black shales, and admixture of residues of organisms and terrestrial humic material is contained. The main direction of source material transformation during syngenesis and sedimentogenesis is associated with jellofication resulting to formation of organic matter of significantly sapropelic type. Low reflectance of vitrinite and alginite from organic matter refer to the primary and secondary lignite stages of its carbonification. Significantly sapropel type of organic matter and low stage of carbonification are reliable criteria for assigning black shales to the category of potential oil source strata.

Composition of organic matter from black shales drilled in the Cape Verde Basin in DSDP Hole 41-367

Results of geochemical studies of organic matter in black shales from the Cape Verde Basin are reported. Based on these results, in combination with data of petrographic analysis, conclusions are made about sapropelic nature of their organic matter and low degree of its coalification. It corresponds to the proto-catagenetic substage of sedimentary rocks. Black shales of the Cape Verde Basin are classified as potential oil source strata.