Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

Homogeneous Spatial Units (HSU) - a Pan-European geographical basis for environmental and socio-economic modelling

The spatial data set delineates areas with similar environmental properties regarding soil, terrain morphology, climate and affiliation to the same administrative unit (NUTS3 or comparable units in size) at a minimum pixel size of 1km2. The scope of developing this data set is to provide a link between spatial environmental information (e.g. soil properties) and statistical data (e.g. crop distribution) available at administrative level. Impact assessment of agricultural management on emissions of pollutants or radiative active gases, or analysis regarding the influence of agricultural management on the supply of ecosystem services, require the proper spatial coincidence of the driving factors. The HSU data set provides e.g. the link between the agro-economic model CAPRI and biophysical assessment of environmental impacts (updating previously spatial units, Leip et al. 2008), for the analysis of policy scenarios. Recently, a statistical model to disaggregate crop information available from regional statistics to the HSU has been developed (Lamboni et al. 2016). The HSU data set consists of the spatial layers provided in vector and raster format as well as attribute tables with information on the properties of the HSU. All input data for the delineation the HSU is publicly available. For some parameters the attribute tables provide the link between the HSU data set and e.g. the soil map(s) rather than the data itself. The HSU data set is closely linked the USCIE data set.

Projections for Land Use Change in Brazil:2000-2050, links to files in ArcGIS shapefile format

This data set contains the inputs and the results of the REDD+ Policy Assessment Centre project (REDD-PAC) project (http://www.redd-pac.org), developed by a consortium of research institutes (IIASA, INPE, IPEA, UNEP-WCMC), supported by Germany's International Climate Initiative. Taking a new land use map of Brazil for 2000 as input, the research team used the global economic model GLOBIOM to project land use changes in Brazil up to 2050. Model projections show that Brazil has the potential to balance its goals of protecting the environment and becoming a major global producer of food and biofuels. The model results were taken into account by Brazilian decision-makers when developing the country's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC).

Age model and Plio-Pleistocene benthic stable oxygen isotope ratios of ODP Site 184-1143 in the Sourh China Sea

Based on benthic foraminiferal delta18O from ODP Site 1143, a 5-Myr astronomical timescale for the West Pacific Plio-Pleistocene was established using an automatic orbital tuning method. The tuned Brunhes/Matuyama paleomagnetic polarity reversal age agrees well with the previously published age of 0.78 Ma. The tuned ages for several planktonic foraminifer bio-events also agree well with published dates, and new ages for some other bio-events in the South China Sea were also estimated. The benthic delta18O from Site 1143 is highly coherent with the Earth's orbit (ETP) both at the obliquity and precession bands for the last 5 Myr, and at the eccentricity band for the last 2 Myr. In general, the 41-kyr cycle was dominant through the Plio-Pleistocene although the 23-kyr cycle was also very strong. The 100-kyr cycle became dominant only during the last 1 Myr. A comparison of the benthic delta18O between the Atlantic (ODP 659) and the East and West Pacific (846 and 1143) reveals that the Atlantic-Pacific benthic oxygen isotope difference ratio (Delta delta18OAtl-Pac) displays an increasing trend in three time intervals: 3.6-2.7 Ma, 2.7-2.1 Ma and 1.5-0.25 Ma. Each of the intervals begins with a rapid negative shift in Delta delta18OAtl-Pac, followed by a long period with an increasing trend, corresponding to the growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet. This means that all three intervals of ice sheet growth in the Northern Hemisphere were accompanied at the beginning by a rapid relative warming of deep water in the Atlantic as compared to that of the Pacific, followed by its gradual relative cooling. This general trend, superimposed on the frequent fluctuations with glacial cycles, should yield insights into the processes leading to the boreal glaciation. Cross-spectral analyses of the Delta delta18OAtl-Pac with the Earth's orbit suggests that after the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at about 2.5 Ma, obliquity rather than precession had become the dominant force controlling the vertical structure or thermohaline circulation in the paleo-ocean.

Bio- and magnetostratigraphic events of ODP holes of the central Kerguelen Plateau

Neogene biostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic data are compiled from Holes 747A, 748B, and 751A drilled on the Southern Kerguelen Plateau during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 120. Neogene sections have excellent to good magnetostratigraphic signatures in many intervals. This, in addition to minimal coring gaps and the occurrence of mixed assemblages of both calcareous and siliceous microfossil assemblages, makes these valuable biostratigraphic reference sections for intra- and extraregional correlations. This paper combines the sequence of biostratigraphic events reported from diatom, radiolarian, planktonic foraminifer, calcareous nannofossil, and silicoflagellate studies of Leg 120 sediments. It correlates microfossil datums with the geomagnetic polarity time scale to test existing age estimates and to refine biostratigraphic age controls for the southern high latitudes. Significant biostratigraphic datums are presented in a series of age-depth plots. Numerous hiatuses are clearly identified through this approach, and the positions of lesser disconformities are suggested. Most Neogene intervals are represented in at least one site, although "regional" unconformities occur in the upper Pliocene, uppermost Miocene/lowermost Pliocene, middle upper Miocene, middle middle Miocene, and at the lower/middle Miocene boundaries. The longest hiatus spanned 6 m.y., with most other hiatuses representing 1 m.y. or less. This paper compiles Leg 120 biostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic data for use in future syntheses of southern high latitude biostratigraphy and presents an age model for Leg 120 Neogene sediments.

World distribution of land cover changes, model in NetCDF format

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.