9 resultados para accounting-based valuation models

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial 3He (3He[ET]) to the seafloor. 3He[ET] measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset (models indicating extremely rapid release of isotopically light carbon, possibly from seafloor methane hydrate, as the proximal cause of the event. However, the 3He[ET] technique indicates a previously unrecognized and extreme increase in sedimentation rate coincident with the return of climate proxies to pre-event values. The 3He[ET]-based age model thus suggests a far more rapid recovery from the climatic perturbation than previously proposed or predicted on the basis of the modern carbon cycle, and so may indicate additional or accelerated mechanisms of carbon removal from the ocean-atmosphere system during this period. 3He[ET] was also measured at ODP Site 1051 to test the validity of the Site 690 chronology. Comparison of these data sets seems to require removal of several tens of kyr of sediment within the climatic excursion at Site 1051, an observation consistent with sediment structures and previous age modeling efforts. The Site 1051 age model shows a ~30 kyr period in which climate proxies return toward pre-event values, after which they remain invariant for ~80 kyr. If this rise represents the recovery interval identified at Site 690, then the 3HeET-based age models of the two sites are in good agreement. However, alternative interpretations are possible, and work on less disrupted sites is required to evaluate the reliability of the proposed new chronology of the climate excursion. Regardless of these details, this work shows that the 3HeET technique can provide useful independent evidence for the development and testing of astronomically calibrated age models.

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Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

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The ecological theory of adaptive radiation predicts that the evolution of phenotypic diversity within species is generated by divergent natural selection arising from different environments and competition between species. Genetic connectivity among populations is likely also to have an important role in both the origin and maintenance of adaptive genetic diversity. Our goal was to evaluate the potential roles of genetic connectivity and natural selection in the maintenance of adaptive phenotypic differences among morphs of Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, in Iceland. At a large spatial scale, we tested the predictive power of geographic structure and phenotypic variation for patterns of neutral genetic variation among populations throughout Iceland. At a smaller scale, we evaluated the genetic differentiation between two morphs in Lake Thingvallavatn relative to historically explicit, coalescent-based null models of the evolutionary history of these lineages. At the large spatial scale, populations are highly differentiated, but weakly structured, both geographically and with respect to patterns of phenotypic variation. At the intralacustrine scale, we observe modest genetic differentiation between two morphs, but this level of differentiation is nonetheless consistent with strong reproductive isolation throughout the Holocene. Rather than a result of the homogenizing effect of gene flow in a system at migration-drift equilibrium, the modest level of genetic differentiation could equally be a result of slow neutral divergence by drift in large populations. We conclude that contemporary and recent patterns of restricted gene flow have been highly conducive to the evolution and maintenance of adaptive genetic variation in Icelandic Arctic charr.

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Based on models and proxy data it has been proposed that salinity-driven stratification weakened in the subarctic North Pacific during the last deglaciation, which potentially contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. We present high-resolution subsurface temperature (TMg/Ca) and subsurface salinity-approximating (d18Oivc-sw) records across the last 20,000 years from the subarctic North Pacific and its marginal seas, derived from combined stable oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of the planktonic foraminiferal species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.). Our results indicate regionally differing changes of subsurface conditions. During the Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas cold phases our sites were subject to reduced thermal stratification, brine rejection due to sea-ice formation, and increased advection of low-salinity water from the Alaskan Stream. In contrast, the Bølling-Allerød warm phase was characterized by strengthened thermal stratification, stronger sea-ice melting, and influence of surface waters that were less diluted by the Alaskan Stream. From direct comparison with alkenone-based sea surface temperature estimates (SSTUk'37), we suggest deglacial thermocline changes that were closely related to changes in seasonal contrasts and stratification of the mixed layer. The modern upper-ocean conditions seem to have developed only since the early Holocene.

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Patterns of regeneration and burial of phosphorus (P) in the Baltic Sea are strongly dependent on redox conditions. Redox varies spatially along water depth gradients and temporally in response to the seasonal cycle and multidecadal hydrographic variability. Alongside the well-documented link between iron oxyhydroxide dissolution and release of P from Baltic Sea sediments, we show that preferential remineralization of P with respect to carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during degradation of organic matter plays a key role in determining the surplus of bioavailable P in the water column. Preferential remineralization of P takes place both in the water column and upper sediments and its rate is shown to be redox-dependent, increasing as reducing conditions become more severe at greater water-depth in the deep basins. Existing Redfield-based biogeochemical models of the Baltic may therefore underestimate the imbalance between N and P availability for primary production, and hence the vulnerability of the Baltic to sustained eutrophication via the fixation of atmospheric N. However, burial of organic P is also shown to increase during multidecadal intervals of expanded hypoxia, due to higher net burial rates of organic matter around the margins of the deep basins. Such intervals may be characterized by basin-scale acceleration of all fluxes within the P cycle, including productivity, regeneration and burial, sustained by the relative accessibility of the water column P pool beneath a shallow halocline.