Case studies of the effects of a total solar eclipse on weather with varying degrees of cloud cover using a local numerical weather prediction model

The importance of renewable energies for the European electricity market is growing rapidly. This presents transmission grids and the power market in general with new challenges which stem from the higher spatiotemporal variability of power generation. This uncertainty is due to the fact that renewable power production results from weather phenomena, thus making it difficult to plan and control. We present a sensitivity study of a total solar eclipse in central Europe in March. The weather in Germany and Europe was modeled using the German Weather Service's local area models COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU, respectively (http://www.cosmo-model.org/). The simulations were performed with and without considering a solar eclipse for the following 3 situations: 1. An idealized, clear-sky situation for the entire model area (Europe, COSMO-EU) 2. A real weather situation with mostly cloudy skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) 3. A real weather situation with mostly clear skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) The data should help to evaluate the effects of a total solar eclipse on the weather in the planetary boundary layer. The results show that a total solar eclipse has significant effects particularly on the main variables for renewable energy production, such as solar irradiation and temperature near the ground.

Q method factor analysis of stakeholder social perspectives of the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessment public participation in the Western Cape, South Africa

Public participation is an integral part of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and as such, has been incorporated into regulatory norms. Assessment of the effectiveness of public participation has remained elusive however. This is partly due to the difficulty in identifying appropriate effectiveness criteria. This research uses Q methodology to discover and analyze stakeholder's social perspectives of the effectiveness of EIAs in the Western Cape, South Africa. It considers two case studies (Main Road and Saldanha Bay EIAs) for contextual participant perspectives of the effectiveness based on their experience. It further considers the more general opinion of provincial consent regulator staff at the Department of Environmental Affairs and the Department of Planning (DEA&DP). Two main themes of investigation are drawn from the South African National Environmental Management Act imperative for effectiveness: firstly, the participation procedure, and secondly, the stakeholder capabilities necessary for effective participation. Four theoretical frameworks drawn from planning, politics and EIA theory are adapted to public participation and used to triangulate the analysis and discussion of the revealed social perspectives. They consider citizen power in deliberation, Habermas' preconditions for the Ideal Speech Situation (ISS), a Foucauldian perspective of knowledge, power and politics, and a Capabilities Approach to public participation effectiveness. The empirical evidence from this research shows that the capacity and contextual constraints faced by participants demand the legislative imperatives for effective participation set out in the NEMA. The implementation of effective public participation has been shown to be a complex, dynamic and sometimes nebulous practice. The functional level of participant understanding of the process was found to be significantly wide-ranging with consequences of unequal and dissatisfied stakeholder engagements. Furthermore, the considerable variance of stakeholder capabilities in the South African social context, resulted in inequalities in deliberation. The social perspectives revealed significant differences in participant experience in terms of citizen power in deliberation. The ISS preconditions are highly contested in both the Saldanha EIA case study and the DEA&DP social perspectives. Only one Main Road EIA case study social perspective considered Foucault's notion of governmentality as a reality in EIA public participation. The freedom of control of ones environment, based on a Capabilities approach, is a highly contested notion. Although agreed with in principle, all of the social perspectives indicate that contextual and capacity realities constrain its realisation. This research has shown that Q method can be applied to EIA public participation in South Africa and, with the appropriate research or monitoring applications it could serve as a useful feedback tool to inform best practice public participation.

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions and rainfall decline in South-West Australia - accompanying model results in NetCDF format

It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in South-West Australia during the 20th century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions - all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focusses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in South-West Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical longterm rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that South-West Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the 20th century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modelling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3km using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-1974. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater South-West Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the West Coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.