(Table 1) Normalized difference vegetation index in control and warming plots, Abisco Research Station

Extreme winter warming events in the sub-Arctic have caused considerable vegetation damage due to rapid changes in temperature and loss of snow cover. The frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase due to climate change thereby increasing the potential for recurring vegetation damage in Arctic regions. Here we present data on vegetation recovery from one such natural event and multiple experimental simulations in the sub-Arctic using remote sensing, handheld passive proximal sensors and ground surveys. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recovered fast (2 years), from the 26% decline following one natural extreme winter warming event. Recovery was associated with declines in dead Empetrum nigrum (dominant dwarf shrub) from ground surveys. However, E. nigrum healthy leaf NDVI was also reduced (16%) following this winter warming event in experimental plots (both control and treatments), suggesting that non-obvious plant damage (i.e., physiological stress) had occurred in addition to the dead E. nigrum shoots that was considered responsible for the regional 26% NDVI decline. Plot and leaf level NDVI provided useful additional information that could not be obtained from vegetation surveys and regional remote sensing (MODIS) alone. The major damage of an extreme winter warming event appears to be relatively transitory. However, potential knock-on effects on higher trophic levels (e.g., rodents, reindeer, and bear) could be unpredictable and large. Repeated warming events year after year, which can be expected under winter climate warming, could result in damage that may take much longer to recover.

Pollen, DNA and Vegetation records from surface sediments of lacustrine lakes along a forest tundra - tundra transect at the Taymyr peninsula, northern Siberia

Reliable information of past vegetation changes are important to project future changes, especially for areas undergoing rapid transitioning such as the boreal treeline. The application of detailed sedDNA records has the potential to enhance our understanding of vegetation changes gained mainly from pollen studies of lake sediments. This study investigates sedDNA and pollen records from 31 lakes along a gradient of increasing larch forest cover in northern Siberia (Taymyr Peninsula) and compares them with vegetation field surveys within the lake's catchment. With respect to vegetation richness, sedDNA recorded 114 taxa, about half of them to species level, while pollen analyses identified 43 pollen taxa. Both approaches exceed the 31 taxa revealed by vegetation field surveys of 400 m**2 plots. From north to south, Larix percentages increase, as is consistently recorded by all three methods. Furthermore, tundra sites are separated from forested sites in the plots of the principal component analyses. Comparison of ordination results by Procrustes and Protest analyses yields a significant fit among all compared pairs of records. Despite the overall comparability of sedDNA and pollen analyses certain idiosyncrasies in the compositional signal are observed, such as high percentages of Alnus and Betula in all pollen spectra and high percentages of Salix in all sedDNA spectra. In conclusion, our results from the treeline show that sedDNA analyses perform better than pollen in recording site-specific richness (i.e. presence/absence of certain vegetation taxa in the direct vicinity of the lake) and perform as good as pollen in tracing regional vegetation composition.