Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactions, supplementary material

Organisms in all domains, Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya will respond to climate change with differential vulnerabilities resulting in shifts in species distribution, coexistence, and interactions. The identification of unifying principles of organism functioning across all domains would facilitate a cause and effect understanding of such changes and their implications for ecosystem shifts. For example, the functional specialization of all organisms in limited temperature ranges leads us to ask for unifying functional reasons. Organisms also specialize in either anoxic or various oxygen ranges, with animals and plants depending on high oxygen levels. Here, we identify thermal ranges, heat limits of growth, and critically low (hypoxic) oxygen concentrations as proxies of tolerance in a meta-analysis of data available for marine organisms, with special reference to domain-specific limits. For an explanation of the patterns and differences observed, we define and quantify a proxy for organismic complexity across species from all domains. Rising complexity causes heat (and hypoxia) tolerances to decrease from Archaea to Bacteria to uni- and then multicellular Eukarya. Within and across domains, taxon-specific tolerance limits likely reflect ultimate evolutionary limits of its species to acclimatization and adaptation. We hypothesize that rising taxon-specific complexities in structure and function constrain organisms to narrower environmental ranges. Low complexity as in Archaea and some Bacteria provide life options in extreme environments. In the warmest oceans, temperature maxima reach and will surpass the permanent limits to the existence of multicellular animals, plants and unicellular phytoplankter. Smaller, less complex unicellular Eukarya, Bacteria, and Archaea will thus benefit and predominate even more in a future, warmer, and hypoxic ocean.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Offspring sensitivity to ocean acidification changes seasonally in a coastal marine fish

Experimental assessments of species vulnerabilities to ocean acidification are rapidly increasing in number, yet the potential for short- and long-term adaptation to high CO2 by contemporary marine organisms remains poorly understood. We used a novel experimental approach that combined bi-weekly sampling of a wild, spawning fish population (Atlantic silverside Menidia menidia) with standardized offspring CO2 exposure experiments and parallel pH monitoring of a coastal ecosystem. We assessed whether offspring produced at different times of the spawning season (April to July) would be similarly susceptible to elevated (1100 µatm, pHNIST = 7.77) and high CO2 levels (2300 µatm, pHNIST = 7.47). Early in the season (April), high CO2 levels significantly (p < 0.05) reduced fish survival by 54% (2012) and 33% (2013) and reduced 1 to 10 d post-hatch growth by 17% relative to ambient conditions. However, offspring from parents collected later in the season became increasingly CO2-tolerant until, by mid-May, offspring survival was equally high at all CO2 levels. This interannually consistent plasticity coincided with the rapid annual pH decline in the species' spawning habitat (mean pH: 1 April/31 May = 8.05/7.67). It suggests that parents can condition their offspring to seasonally acidifying environments, either via changes in maternal provisioning and/or epigenetic transgenerational plasticity (TGP). TGP to increasing CO2 has been shown in the laboratory but never before in a wild population. Our novel findings of direct CO2-related survival reductions in wild fish offspring and seasonally plastic responses imply that realistic assessments of species CO2-sensitivities must control for parental environments that are seasonally variable in coastal habitats.