An individual based model spatial distribution, production and biomass for Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.

Radiocarbon ages of sediment core PG1414-2 from Beall Lake, Windmill Islands

A mid-Holocene climate optimum is inferred from a palaeosalinity reconstruction of a closed saline lake (Beall Lake) from the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica using an expanded diatom salinity weighted averaging (WA) regression and calibration model. The addition of 14 lakes and ponds from the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, to an existing weighted averaging regression and calibration palaeosalinity model of 33 lakes from the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica expands the number of taxa and lakes and the range of salinity in the existing model and improves the model's predictive ability. This improved model was used to infer Holocene changes in lake water salinity in Beall Lake, Windmill Islands. Six changes in diatom-inferred salinity in Beall Lake are put into broad chronological context based on three radiocarbon dates: as the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) retreated from the Windmill Islands during the early Holocene (~9000-8130 corr. yr BP), Beall Lake formed as a melt water-fed freshwater lake, which gradually became more saline as marine influence increased from ~8000 corr. yr BP. Between ~8000 and 4800 corr. yr BP, the diatom assemblage included planktonic marine taxa such as Chaetoceros spp. and cryophilic taxa such as Fragilariopsis cylindrus, which indicate favourable summer growth conditions. A mid-Holocene warm period produced a climate that was warmer and more humid with increased precipitation and snow accumulation. This is reflected in the Beall Lake core as a reduction in the salinity of the lake diatom assemblage from ~4800-4600 corr. yr BP. Holocene isostatic uplift rates in the Windmill Islands vary from 5-6 m/1000 yr. By applying this uplift rate, it is calculated that the bedrock would have risen above sea level by ~4000 yr BP. The Beall Lake core diatom assemblage from ~4600-2900 corr. yr BP includes both marine cryophilic and planktonic taxa together with freshwater benthic and planktonic lacustrine taxa. This mix of species indicates the emergence of the lake from the sea around ~4600 corr. yr BP. From ~2800 corr. yr BP, retreat of the ice margin led to increasing melt water inputs and associated freshening of the lake basin until ~1900 corr. yr BP. The lake basin had no oceanic influence by this time, allowing a terrestrial freshwater flora to establish and thrive for the next ~1000 yr. At ~1850 corr. yr BP, a sudden and rapid salinity change is evident in Beall Lake. A late Holocene warm period between 2000 and 1000 yr BP has been observed in ice core records from Law Dome (an ice cap abutting the Windmill Islands to the east and north). It is therefore inferred that, at ~1850 corr. yr BP, summer temperatures within the Beall Lake catchment area were much higher than present summer temperatures. The climate optimum identified in the Beall Lake core ~4800 yr BP confirms mid-Holocene warming of the Windmill Islands and suggests a synchronous mid-Holocene climate optimum occurred across coastal East Antarctica. In addition, the abrupt climate change inferred at ~1850 yr BP suggests that higher resolution sampling of sediment cores from coastal East Antarctic limnological oases will provide more evidence of rapid climate change events over coastal East Antarctica in future.

Results of analysis and model simulation of the bed profiles

Bedforms such as dunes and ripples are ubiquitous in rivers and coastal seas, and commonly described as triangular shapes from which height and length are calculated to estimate hydrodynamic and sediment dynamic parameters. Natural bedforms, however, present a far more complicated morphology; the difference between natural bedform shape and the often assumed triangular shape is usually neglected, and how this may affect the flow is unknown. This study investigates the shapes of natural bedforms and how they influence flow and shear stress, based on four datasets extracted from earlier studies on two rivers (the Rio Paraná in Argentina, and the Lower Rhine in The Netherlands). The most commonly occurring morphological elements are a sinusoidal stoss side made of one segment and a lee side made of two segments, a gently sloping upper lee side and a relatively steep (6 to 21°) slip face. A non-hydrostatic numerical model, set up using Delft3D, served to simulate the flow over fixed bedforms with various morphologies derived from the identified morphological elements. Both shear stress and turbulence increase with increasing slip face angle and are only marginally affected by the dimensions and positions of the upper and lower lee side. The average slip face angle determined from the bed profiles is 14°, over which there is no permanent flow separation. Shear stress and turbulence above natural bedforms are higher than above a flat bed but much lower than over the often assumed 30° lee side angle.

Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix, supplementary material

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.