20 resultados para Uncertainty with Respect to the Future

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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A detailed geochemical-petrological examination of layer 2 basalts recovered during Leg 37 of the DSDP has revealed that the original distribution, form and abundance of igneous sulfide have been profoundly altered during low-grade oxidative diagenesis. The net result appears to have been a rather pervasive remobilization of igneous sulfide to form secondary pyrite accompanied by a bulk loss of sulfur equivalent to about 50-60% of the original igneous value, assuming initial saturation. It is suggested that during infiltration of seawater into the massive crystalline rock, igneous sulfide has experienced pervasive oxidation, under conditions of limited oxidation potential, to form a series of unstable, soluble sulfur species, primarily in the form of SO3[2-] and S2O3[2-]. Spontaneous decomposition of these intermediate compounds through disproportionation has resulted in partial reconstitution of the sulfur as secondary pyrite and the generation of SO4[2-] ion, which, due to its kinetic stability, has been lost from the basalt system and ultimately transferred to the ocean. This model not only satisfies the geochemical and petrological observations but also provides a suitable explanation for the highly variable delta34S values which characterize secondary sulfides in deep ocean floor basalts.

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The paper presents first results of a pan-boreal scale land cover harmonization and classification. A methodology is presented that combines global and regional vegetation datasets to extract percentage cover information for different vegetation physiognomy and barren for the pan-arctic region within the ESA Data User Element Permafrost. Based on the legend description of each land cover product the datasets are harmonized into four LCCS (Land Cover Classification System) classifiers which are linked to the MODIS Vegetation Continuous Field (VCF) product. Harmonized land cover and Vegetation Continuous Fields products are combined to derive a best estimate of percentage cover information for trees, shrubs, herbaceous and barren areas for Russia. Future work will concentrate on the expansion of the developed methodology to the pan-arctic scale. Since the vegetation builds an isolation layer, which protects the permafrost from heat and cold temperatures, a degradation of this layer due to fire strongly influences the frozen conditions in the soil. Fire is an important disturbance factor which affects vast processes and dynamics in ecosystems (e.g. biomass, biodiversity, hydrology, etc.). Especially in North Eurasia the fire occupancy has dramatically increased in the last 50 years and has doubled in the 1990s with respect to the last five decades. A comparison of global and regional fire products has shown discrepancies between the amounts of burn scars detected by different algorithms and satellite data.

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Future anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and the resulting ocean acidification may have severe consequences for marine calcifying organisms and ecosystems. Marine calcifiers depositing calcitic hard parts that contain significant concentrations of magnesium, i.e. Mg-calcite, and calcifying organisms living in high latitude and/or cold-water environments are at immediate risk to ocean acidification and decreasing seawater carbonate saturation because they are currently immersed in seawater that is just slightly supersaturated with respect to the carbonate phases they secrete. Under the present rate of CO2 emissions, model calculations show that high latitude ocean waters could reach undersaturation with respect to aragonite in just a few decades. Thus, before this happens these waters will be undersaturated with respect to Mg-calcite minerals of higher solubility than that of aragonite. Similarly, tropical surface seawater could become undersaturated with respect to Mg-calcite minerals containing ?12 mole percent (mol%) MgCO3 during this century. As a result of these changes in surface seawater chemistry and further penetration of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean interior, we suggest that (1) the magnesium content of calcitic hard parts will decrease in many ocean environments, (2) the relative proportion of calcifiers depositing stable carbonate minerals, such as calcite and low Mg-calcite, will increase and (3) the average magnesium content of carbonate sediments will decrease. Furthermore, the highest latitude and deepest depth at which cold-water corals and other calcifiers currently exist will move towards lower latitudes and shallower depth, respectively. These changes suggest that anthropogenic emissions of CO2 may be currently pushing the oceans towards an episode characteristic of a 'calcite sea.'

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The stability of gypsum in marine sediments has been investigated through the calculation of its saturation index at the sediment in situ temperature and pressure, using the entire ODP/IODP porewater composition database (14416 samples recovered from sediments collected during 95 ODP and IODP Legs). Saturation is reached in sediment porewaters of 26 boreholes drilled at 23 different sites, during 12 ODP/IODP Legs. As ocean bottom seawater is largely undersaturated with respect to gypsum, the porewater Ca content or its SO4 concentration, or both, must increase in order to reach equilibrium. At several sites equilibrium is reached either through the presence of evaporitic gypsum layers found in the sedimentary sequence, and/or through a salinity increase due to the presence of evaporitic brines with high concentrations of Ca and SO4. Saturation can also be reached in porewaters of seawater-like salinity (~ 35 per mil), provided sulfate reduction is limited. In this case, saturation is due to the alteration of volcanogenic material which releases large amounts of Ca to the porewaters, where the Ca concentration can reach 55 times its seawater value as for example at ODP Leg 134 site 833. At a few sites, saturation is reached in hydrothermal environments, or as a consequence of the alteration of the basaltic basement. In addition to the well known influence of brines on the formation of gypsum, these results indicate that the alteration of sediments rich in volcanogenic material is a major process leading to gypsum saturation in marine sediment porewaters. Therefore, the presence of gypsum in ancient and recent marine sediments should not be systematically interpreted as due to hypersaline waters, especially if volcanogenic material is present.

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The analysis of research data plays a key role in data-driven areas of science. Varieties of mixed research data sets exist and scientists aim to derive or validate hypotheses to find undiscovered knowledge. Many analysis techniques identify relations of an entire dataset only. This may level the characteristic behavior of different subgroups in the data. Like automatic subspace clustering, we aim at identifying interesting subgroups and attribute sets. We present a visual-interactive system that supports scientists to explore interesting relations between aggregated bins of multivariate attributes in mixed data sets. The abstraction of data to bins enables the application of statistical dependency tests as the measure of interestingness. An overview matrix view shows all attributes, ranked with respect to the interestingness of bins. Complementary, a node-link view reveals multivariate bin relations by positioning dependent bins close to each other. The system supports information drill-down based on both expert knowledge and algorithmic support. Finally, visual-interactive subset clustering assigns multivariate bin relations to groups. A list-based cluster result representation enables the scientist to communicate multivariate findings at a glance. We demonstrate the applicability of the system with two case studies from the earth observation domain and the prostate cancer research domain. In both cases, the system enabled us to identify the most interesting multivariate bin relations, to validate already published results, and, moreover, to discover unexpected relations.

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The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

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Abstract of Bazin et al. (2013): An accurate and coherent chronological framework is essential for the interpretation of climatic and environmental records obtained from deep polar ice cores. Until now, one common ice core age scale had been developed based on an inverse dating method (Datice), combining glaciological modelling with absolute and stratigraphic markers between 4 ice cores covering the last 50 ka (thousands of years before present) (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010). In this paper, together with the companion paper of Veres et al. (2013), we present an extension of this work back to 800 ka for the NGRIP, TALDICE, EDML, Vostok and EDC ice cores using an improved version of the Datice tool. The AICC2012 (Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012) chronology includes numerous new gas and ice stratigraphic links as well as improved evaluation of background and associated variance scenarios. This paper concentrates on the long timescales between 120-800 ka. In this framework, new measurements of d18Oatm over Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11-12 on EDC and a complete d18Oatm record of the TALDICE ice cores permit us to derive additional orbital gas age constraints. The coherency of the different orbitally deduced ages (from d18Oatm, dO2/N2 and air content) has been verified before implementation in AICC2012. The new chronology is now independent of other archives and shows only small differences, most of the time within the original uncertainty range calculated by Datice, when compared with the previous ice core reference age scale EDC3, the Dome F chronology, or using a comparison between speleothems and methane. For instance, the largest deviation between AICC2012 and EDC3 (5.4 ka) is obtained around MIS 12. Despite significant modifications of the chronological constraints around MIS 5, now independent of speleothem records in AICC2012, the date of Termination II is very close to the EDC3 one. Abstract of Veres et al. (2013): The deep polar ice cores provide reference records commonly employed in global correlation of past climate events. However, temporal divergences reaching up to several thousand years (ka) exist between ice cores over the last climatic cycle. In this context, we are hereby introducing the Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012 (AICC2012), a new and coherent timescale developed for four Antarctic ice cores, namely Vostok, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) and Talos Dome (TALDICE), alongside the Greenlandic NGRIP record. The AICC2012 timescale has been constructed using the Bayesian tool Datice (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) that combines glaciological inputs and data constraints, including a wide range of relative and absolute gas and ice stratigraphic markers. We focus here on the last 120 ka, whereas the companion paper by Bazin et al. (2013) focuses on the interval 120-800 ka. Compared to previous timescales, AICC2012 presents an improved timing for the last glacial inception, respecting the glaciological constraints of all analyzed records. Moreover, with the addition of numerous new stratigraphic markers and improved calculation of the lock-in depth (LID) based on d15N data employed as the Datice background scenario, the AICC2012 presents a slightly improved timing for the bipolar sequence of events over Marine Isotope Stage 3 associated with the seesaw mechanism, with maximum differences of about 600 yr with respect to the previous Datice-derived chronology of Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010), hereafter denoted LD2010. Our improved scenario confirms the regional differences for the millennial scale variability over the last glacial period: while the EDC isotopic record (events of triangular shape) displays peaks roughly at the same time as the NGRIP abrupt isotopic increases, the EDML isotopic record (events characterized by broader peaks or even extended periods of high isotope values) reached the isotopic maximum several centuries before. It is expected that the future contribution of both other long ice core records and other types of chronological constraints to the Datice tool will lead to further refinements in the ice core chronologies beyond the AICC2012 chronology. For the time being however, we recommend that AICC2012 be used as the preferred chronology for the Vostok, EDC, EDML and TALDICE ice core records, both over the last glacial cycle (this study), and beyond (following Bazin et al., 2013). The ages for NGRIP in AICC2012 are virtually identical to those of GICC05 for the last 60.2 ka, whereas the ages beyond are independent of those in GICC05modelext (as in the construction of AICC2012, the GICC05modelext was included only via the background scenarios and not as age markers). As such, where issues of phasing between Antarctic records included in AICC2012 and NGRIP are involved, the NGRIP ages in AICC2012 should therefore be taken to avoid introducing false offsets. However for issues involving only Greenland ice cores, there is not yet a strong basis to recommend superseding GICC05modelext as the recommended age scale for Greenland ice cores.

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Impact and monitoring of dredge spoils are an important environmental issue. This investigation aims to map two dredge-spoil dispersals in the Bay of Seine by using an innovative application of well-established environmental magnetic proxies. Low-field magnetic susceptibility measurements were performed on discrete samples from dredge sediments and from the Bay of Seine seafloor before & after dumping. The fingerprinting of the dispersion of dredge-dumped sediments is efficient due to the higher susceptibility of the dredge sediments with respect to the background. Besides, terrestrial input is also monitored in our susceptibility maps. Dilution of the susceptibility signal allows an estimation of the resilience of the sedimentary environment on a six-month survey. This susceptibility signal is controlled by the ferromagnetic fraction of the sediment. A constant magnetic mineralogy carried by magnetite is observed in the study area, thus a qualitative parameter for magnetic grain size was selected that shows an in-progress resilience pattern over the survey.

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The observed long-term decrease in the regional fire activity of Eastern Canada results in excessive accumulation of organic layer on the forest floor of coniferous forests, which may affect climate-growth relationships in canopy trees. To test this hypothesis, we related tree-ring chronologies of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) to soil organic layer (SOL) depth at the stand scale in the lowland forests of Quebec's Clay Belt. Late-winter and early-spring temperatures and temperature at the end of the previous year's growing season were the major monthly level environmental controls of spruce growth. The effect of SOL on climate-growth relationships was moderate and reversed the association between tree growth and summer aridity from a negative to a positive relationship: trees growing on thin organic layers were thus negatively affected by drought, whereas it was the opposite for sites with deep (>20-30 cm) organic layers. This indicates the development of wetter conditions on sites with thicker SOL. Deep SOL were also associated with an increased frequency of negative growth anomalies (pointer years) in tree-ring chronologies. Our results emphasize the presence of nonlinear growth responses to SOL accumulation, suggesting 20-30 cm as a provisional threshold with respect to the effects of SOL on the climate-growth relationship. Given the current climatic conditions characterized by generally low-fire activity and a trend toward accumulation of SOL, the importance of SOL effects in the black spruce ecosystem is expected to increase in the future.

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In the last decade, the aquatic eddy correlation (EC) technique has proven to be a powerful approach for non-invasive measurements of oxygen fluxes across the sediment water interface. Fundamental to the EC approach is the correlation of turbulent velocity and oxygen concentration fluctuations measured with high frequencies in the same sampling volume. Oxygen concentrations are commonly measured with fast responding electrochemical microsensors. However, due to their own oxygen consumption, electrochemical microsensors are sensitive to changes of the diffusive boundary layer surrounding the probe and thus to changes in the ambient flow velocity. The so-called stirring sensitivity of microsensors constitutes an inherent correlation of flow velocity and oxygen sensing and thus an artificial flux which can confound the benthic flux determination. To assess the artificial flux we measured the correlation between the turbulent flow velocity and the signal of oxygen microsensors in a sealed annular flume without any oxygen sinks and sources. Experiments revealed significant correlations, even for sensors designed to have low stirring sensitivities of ~0.7%. The artificial fluxes depended on ambient flow conditions and, counter intuitively, increased at higher velocities because of the nonlinear contribution of turbulent velocity fluctuations. The measured artificial fluxes ranged from 2 - 70 mmol m**-2 d**-1 for weak and very strong turbulent flow, respectively. Further, the stirring sensitivity depended on the sensor orientation towards the flow. Optical microsensors (optodes) that should not exhibit a stirring sensitivity were tested in parallel and did not show any significant correlation between O2 signals and turbulent flow. In conclusion, EC data obtained with electrochemical sensors can be affected by artificial flux and we recommend using optical microsensors in future EC-studies. Flume experiments were conducted in February 2013 at the Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Koblenz-Landau Landau. Experiments were performed in a closed oval-shaped acrylic glass flume with cross-sectional width of 4 cm and height of 10 cm and total length of 54 cm. The fluid flow was induced by a propeller driven by a motor and mean flow velocities of up to 20 cm s-1 were generated by applying voltages between 0 V and 4 V DC. The flume was completely sealed with an acrylic glass cover. Oxygen sensors were inserted through rubber seal fittings and allowed positioning the sensors with inclinations to the main flow direction of ~60°, ~95° and ~135°. A Clark type electrochemical O2 microsensor with a low stirring sensitivity (0.7%) was tested and a fast-responding needle-type O2 optode (PyroScience GmbH, Germany) was used as reference as optodes should not be stirring sensitive. Instantaneous three-dimensional flow velocities were measured at 7.4 Hz using stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (PIV). The velocity at the sensor tip was extracted. The correlation of the fluctuating O2 sensor signals and the fluctuating velocities was quantified with a cross-correlation analysis. A significant cross-correlation is equivalent to a significant artificial flux. For a total of 18 experiments the flow velocity was adjusted between 1.7 and 19.2 cm s**-1, and 3 different orientations of the electrochemical sensor were tested with inclination angles of ~60°, ~95° and ~135° with respect to the main flow direction. In experiments 16-18, wavelike flow was induced, whereas in all other experiments the motor was driven by constant voltages. In 7 experiments, O2 was additionally measured by optodes. Although performed simultaneously with the electrochemical sensor, optode measurements are listed as separate experiments (denoted by the attached 'op' in the filename), because the velocity time series was extracted at the optode tip, located at a different position in the flume.