9 resultados para Uncertainty propagation

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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A limiting factor in the accuracy and precision of U/Pb zircon dates is accurate correction for initial disequilibrium in the 238U and 235U decay chains. The longest-lived-and therefore most abundant-intermediate daughter product in the 235U isotopic decay chain is 231Pa (T1/2 = 32.71 ka), and the partitioning behavior of Pa in zircon is not well constrained. Here we report high-precision thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) U-Pb zircon data from two samples from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 735B, which show evidence for incorporation of excess 231Pa during zircon crystallization. The most precise analyses from the two samples have consistent Th-corrected 206Pb/238U dates with weighted means of 11.9325 ± 0.0039 Ma (n = 9) and 11.920 ± 0.011 Ma (n = 4), but distinctly older 207Pb/235U dates that vary from 12.330 ± 0.048 Ma to 12.140 ± 0.044 Ma and 12.03 ± 0.24 to 12.40 ± 0.27 Ma, respectively. If the excess 207Pb is due to variable initial excess 231Pa, calculated initial (231Pa)/(235U) activity ratios for the two samples range from 5.6 ± 1.0 to 9.6 ± 1.1 and 3.5 ± 5.2 to 11.4 ± 5.8. The data from the more precisely dated sample yields estimated DPazircon/DUzircon from 2.2-3.8 and 5.6-9.6, assuming (231Pa)/(235U) of the melt equal to the global average of recently erupted mid-ocean ridge basaltic glasses or secular equilibrium, respectively. High precision ID-TIMS analyses from nine additional samples from Hole 735B and nearby Hole 1105A suggest similar partitioning. The lower range of DPazircon/DUzircon is consistent with ion microprobe measurements of 231Pa in zircons from Holocene and Pleistocene rhyolitic eruptions (Schmitt (2007; doi:10.2138/am.2007.2449) and Schmitt (2011; doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-040610-133330)). The data suggest that 231Pa is preferentially incorporated during zircon crystallization over a range of magmatic compositions, and excess initial 231Pa may be more common in zircons than acknowledged. The degree of initial disequilibrium in the 235U decay chain suggested by the data from this study, and other recent high precision datasets, leads to resolvable discordance in high precision dates of Cenozoic to Mesozoic zircons. Minor discordance in zircons of this age may therefore reflect initial excess 231Pa and does not require either inheritance or Pb loss.

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A reliable assessment of relevant substance flows is very important for environmental risk assessments and efficiency analysis of measures to reduce or avoid emissions of micropollutants like drugs to water systems. Accordingly, a detailed preparation of monitoring campaigns should include an accuracy check for the sampling configuration to prove the reliability of the monitoring results and the subsequent data processing. The accuracy of substance flow analyses is expected to be particularly weak for substances having high short-term variations of concentrations in sewage. This is especially the case linked to the observation of substance flows close to source in waste water systems. The verification of a monitoring configuration in a hospital sewer in Luxembourg is in the centre of interest of the case study presented here. A tracer test in the sewer system under observation is an essential element of the suggested accuracy check and provides valuable information for an uncertainty analysis. The results illustrate the importance of accuracy checks as an essential element of the preparation of monitoring campaigns. Moreover the study shows that continuous flow proportional sampling enables a representative observation of short-term peak loads of the iodinated x-ray contrast media iobitridol close to source.

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During R/V Meteor-cruise no. 30 4 moorings with 17 current meters were placed on the continental slope of Sierra Leone at depths between 81 and 1058 meters. The observation period started on March 8, 1973, 16.55 hours GMT and lasted 19 days for moorings M30_068MOOR, M30_069MOOR, M30_070MOOR on the slope and 9 days for M30_067MOOR on the shelf. One current meter recorded at location M30_067MOOR for 22 days. Hydrographic data were collected at 32 stations by means of the "Kieler Multi-Meeressonde". Harmonic analysis is applied to the first 15 days of the time series to determine the M2 and S2 tides. By vertically averaging of the Fourier coefficients the field of motion is separated into its barotropic and its baroclinic component. The expected error generated by white Gaussian noise is estimated. To estimate the influence of the particular vertical distribution of the current meters, the barotropic M2 tide is calculated by ommitting and interchanging time series of different moorings. It is shown that only the data of moorings M30_069MOOR, M30_070MOOR and M30_067MOOR can be used. The results for the barotropic M2 tide agree well with the previous publications of other authors. On the slope at a depth of 1000 m there is a free barotropic wave under the influence of the Coriolis-force propagating along the slope with an amplitude of 3.4 cm S**-1. On the shelf, the maximum current is substantially greater (5.8 cm s**-1) and the direction of propagation is perpendicular to the slope. As for the continental slope a separation into different baroclinic modes using vertical eigenmodes is not reasonable, an interpretation of the total baroclinic wave field is tried by means of the method of characteristis. Assuming the continental slope to generate several linear waves, which superpose, baroclinic tidal ellipses are calculated. The scattering of the direction of the major axes M30_069MOOR is in contrast to M30_070MOOR, where they are bundled within an angle of 60°. This is presumably caused by the different character of the bottom topography in the vicinity of the two moorings. A detailed discussion of M30_069MOOR is renounced since the accuracy of the bathymetric chart is not sufficient to prove any relation between waves and topography. The bundeling of the major axes at M30_070MOOR can be explained by the longslope changes of the slope, which cause an energy transfer from the longslope barotropic component to the downslope baroclinic component. The maximum amplitude is found at a depth of 245 m where it is expected from the characteristics originating at the shelf edge. Because of the dominating barotropic tide high coherence is found between most of the current meters. To show the influence of the baroclinic tidal waves, the effect of the mean current is considered. There are two periods nearly opposite longshore mean current. For 128 hours during each of these periods, starting on March 11, 05.00, and March 21, 08.30, the coherences and energy spectra are calculated. The changes in the slope of the characteristics are found in agreement with the changes of energy and coherence. Because of the short periods of nearly constant mean current, some of the calculated differences of energy and coherence are not statistically significant. For the M2 tide a calculation of the ratios of vertically integrated total baroclinic energy and vertically integrated barotropic kinetic energy is carried out. Taking into account both components (along and perpendicular to the slope) the obtained values are 0.75 and 0.98 at the slope and 0.38 at the shelf. If each component is considered separately, the ratios are 0.39 and 1.16 parallel to the slope and 5.1 and 15.85 for the component perpendicular to it. Taking the energy transfer from the longslope component to the doenslope component into account, a simple model yields an energy-ratio of 2.6. Considering the limited application of the theory to the real conditions, the obtained are in agreement with the values calculated by Sandstroem.

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Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.

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Following three decades of relative stability, Jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland, underwent dramatic thinning, retreat and speed-up starting in 1998. To assess the amount of ice loss, we analyzed 1985 aerial photos and derived a 40 m grid digital elevation model (DEM). We also obtained a 2007 40 m grid SPOT DEM covering the same region. Comparison of the two DEMs over an area of ~4000 km**2 revealed a total ice loss of 160 ± 4 km**3, with 107 ± 0.2 km**3 in grounded regions (0.27 mm eustatic sea-level rise) and 53 ± 4 km**3 from the disintegration of the floating tongue. Comparison of the DEMs with 1997 NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper data indicates that this ice loss essentially occurred after 1997, with +0.7 ± 5.6 km**3 between 1985 and 1997 and -160 ± 7 km**3 between 1997 and 2007. The latter is equivalent to an average specific mass balance of -3.7 ± 0.2 m/a over the study area. Previously reported thickening of the main glacier during the early 1990s was accompanied by similar-magnitude thinning outside the areas of fast flow, indicating that the land-based ice continued reacting to longer-term climate forcing.