30 resultados para Uncertainty in governance
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
We present field measurements of air-sea gas exchange by the radon deficit method that were carried out during JASIN 1978 (NE Atlantic) and FGGE 1979 (Equatorial Atlantic). Both experiments comprised repeated deficit measurements at fixed position over periods of days or longer, using a previously descibed precise and fast-acquiaition, automatic radon measuring system. The deficit time series exhibit variations that only partly reflect the expected changes in gas transfer. By evaluating averages over each time series we deduce the following gas transfer velocities (average wind velocity and water temperature in parentheses): JASIN phase 1: 1.6 ± 0.8 m/d (at ~6 m/s, 13°C) JASIN phase 2: 4.3 ± 1.2 m/d (at ~8 m/s, 13°C) FGGE: 1.2 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~5 m/s, 28°C) 0.9 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~7 m/s, 28°C) 1.5 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~7 m/s, 28°C) The large difference betwen the JASIN phase 2 and FGGE values despite quite similare average wind velocity becomes even larger when the values are, however, fully compatible with the range of gas transfer velocities observed in laboratory experiments and the conclusion is suggested that their difference is caused by the highly different wind variability in JASIN and FGGE. We conclude that in gas exchange parameterization it is not sufficinent to consider wind velocity only. A comparison of our observations with laboratory results outlines the range of variations of air-sea gas transfer velocities with wind velocity and sea state. We also reformulate the radon deficit method, in the light of our observed deficit variations, to account explicitely for non-stationary and horizontal inhomogeneity in previous radon work introduces considerable uncertainty in deduced gas transfere velocity. We furthermore discuss the observational rewuirements that have to be met for an adequate exploitation of the radon deficit method, of which an observation area of minimum horizontal inhomogeneity and monitoring of the remaining inhomogeneities are thought to be the most stringent ones.
Resumo:
The ocean is responsible for up to a third of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, but uncertainties in emission rates of this potent greenhouse gas are high (>100%). Here we use a marine biogeochemical model to assess six major uncertainties in estimates of N2O production, thereby providing guidance in how future studies may most effectively reduce uncertainties in current and future marine N2O emissions. Potential surface N2O production from nitrification causes the largest uncertainty in N2O emissions (estimated up to ~1.6 Tg N/yr, or 48% of modeled values), followed by the unknown oxygen concentration at which N2O production switches to N2O consumption (0.8 Tg N/yr, or 24% of modeled values). Other uncertainties are minor, cumulatively changing regional emissions by <15%. If production of N2O by surface nitrification could be ruled out in future studies, uncertainties in marine N2O emissions would be halved.
Resumo:
Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry microanalysis of fossil and live Globigerinoides ruber from the eastern Indian Ocean reveals large variations of Mg/Ca composition both within and between individual tests from core top or plankton pump samples. Although the extent of intertest and intratest compositional variability exceeds that attributable to calcification temperature, the pooled mean Mg/Ca molar values obtained for core top samples between the equator and >30°S form a strong exponential correlation with mean annual sea surface temperature (Mg/Ca mmol/mol = 0.52 exp**0.076SST°C, r**2 = 0.99). The intertest Mg/Ca variability within these deep-sea core top samples is a source of significant uncertainty in Mg/Ca seawater temperature estimates and is notable for being site specific. Our results indicate that widely assumed uncertainties in Mg/Ca thermometry may be underestimated. We show that statistical power analysis can be used to evaluate the number of tests needed to achieve a target level of uncertainty on a sample by sample case. A varying bias also arises from the presence and varying mix of two morphotypes (G. ruber ruber and G. ruber pyramidalis), which have different mean Mg/Ca values. Estimated calcification temperature differences between these morphotypes range up to 5°C and are notable for correlating with the seasonal range in seawater temperature at different sites.
Resumo:
A suite of conjugate pore fluid and sediment samples were collected during Leg 169 of the ODP from within the clastic sedimentary sequences which host massive sulphides at Central Hill, Escanaba Trough (ODP Site 1038). We report the alkali element and boron, and Li and B isotope data for these samples. Relative to a reference site (Site 1037) located outside the zone of high heat flow, pore fluids from Site 1038 show a wide variation in Cl (300-800 mM), and have far higher concentrations of Li (up to 6.2 mM), B (up to 9.7 mM), Cs (up to 5.0 mM), and Rb (up to 97 mM). We show that the pore fluids are derived from hydrothermal circulation that has extended into the basement oceanic crust, with input of the alkali elements and B as the rising hydrothermal fluids interact geochemically with the overlying clastic sediments. There is, however, no marked depletion of these elements in the conjugate sediments, suggesting that there has been advective transport of fluids away from the primary hydrothermal reaction site. This is supported by modelling of the Li and B isotope systematics of the pore fluids, which shows that they record extensive formation of secondary minerals during cooling of the fluids from ~350 to ~20ºC. Precipitation of metal-rich sulphides would have occurred prior to the formation of these minerals, thus, the pore fluid Li and B isotope data can place important constraints on the locus of sulphide deposition beneath the seafloor at Escanaba.
Resumo:
At Deep Sea Drilling Site 384 (J-Anomaly Ridge, Grand Banks Continental Rise, NW Atlantic Ocean) Paleocene nannofossil chalks and oozes (~70 m thick) are unconformably/disconformably underlain (~168 m; upper Maastrichtian) and overlain (~98.7 m; upper lower Eocene) by sediments of comparable lithologies. The chalks are more indurated in stratigraphically higher levels of the Paleocene reflecting increasing amounts of biosiliceous (radiolarians and diatoms) components. This site serves as an excellent location for an integrated calcareous and siliceous microfossil zonal stratigraphy and stable isotope stratigraphy. We report the results of a magnetostratigraphic study which, when incorporated with published magnetostratigraphic results, reveals an essentially complete magnetostratigraphic record spanning the interval from Magnetochron C31n (late Maastrichtian) to C25n (partim) (late Paleocene, Thanetian). Integrated magnetobiochronology and stable isotope stratigraphy support the interpretation of, and constrain the estimated duration of, a short hiatus (~0.9 my) within the younger part of Chron C29r (including the K/P boundary) and an ~6 my hiatus separating upper Paleocene (Magnetozone C25n) and upper lower Eocene (Magnetozone C22r) sediments. Some 30 planktonic foraminiferal datum levels [including the criteria used to denote the Paleocene planktonic foraminiferal (sub)tropical zonal scheme of Berggren and Miller, Micropaleontology 34 (4) (1988) 362-380 and Berggren et al., SEPM Spec. Publ. 54 (1995) 129-212, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 107 (11) (1995) 1272-1287], and nearly two dozen calcareous nannoplankton datum levels have been recognized and calibrated to the magnetochronology. Planktonic foraminiferal Subzones P4a and P4b of (upper Paleocene) Zone P4 are emended/redefined based on the discovery of a longer stratigraphic extension of Acarinina subsphaerica (into at last Magnetozone C25n). Stable isotope stratigraphies from benthic foraminifera and fine fraction (<38 µm) carbonate have been calibrated to the biochronology and magnetostratigraphy. A minimum in benthic foraminifer delta13C was reached near the Danian/Selandian boundary (within Chron C26r, planktonic foraminiferal Zone P3a and calcareous nannoplankton Zone NP4) and is followed by the rise to maximum delta13C values in the late Thanetian (near the base of C25n, in Zone P4c and NP9a, respectively) that can be used for global correlation in the Paleocene.
Resumo:
At Sleipner, CO2 is being separated from natural gas and injected into an underground saline aquifer for environmental purposes. Uncertainty in the aquifer temperature leads to uncertainty in the in situ density of CO2. In this study, gravity measurements were made over the injection site in 2002 and 2005 on top of 30 concrete benchmarks on the seafloor in order to constrain the in situ CO2 density. The gravity measurements have a repeatability of 4.3 µGal for 2003 and 3.5 µGal for 2005. The resulting time-lapse uncertainty is 5.3 µGal. Unexpected benchmark motions due to local sediment scouring contribute to the uncertainty. Forward gravity models are calculated based on both 3D seismic data and reservoir simulation models. The time-lapse gravity observations best fit a high temperature forward model based on the time-lapse 3D seismics, suggesting that the average in situ CO2 density is about to 530kg/m**3. Uncertainty in determining the average density is estimated to be ±65 kg/m**3 (95% confidence), however, this does not include uncertainties in the modeling. Additional seismic surveys and future gravity measurements will put better constraints on the CO2 density and continue to map out the CO2 flow.
Resumo:
From the 12th until the 17th of July 2016, research vessel Maria S. Merian entered the Nordvestfjord of Scorsby Sound (East Greenland) as part of research cruise MSM56, "Ecological chemistry in Arctic fjords". A large variety of chemical and biological parameters of fjord and meltwater were measured during this cruise to characterize biogeochemical fluxes in arctic fjords. The photo documentation described here was a side project. It was started when we were close to the Daugaard-Jensen glacier at the end of the Nordvestfjord and realized that not many people have seen this area before and photos available for scientists are probably rare. These pictures shall help to document climate and landscape changes in a remote area of East Greenland. Pictures were taken with a Panasonic Lumix G6 equipped with either a 14-42 or 45-150 objective (zoom factor available in jpg metadata). Polarizer filters were used on both objectives. The time between taking the pictures and writing down the coordinates was maximally one minute but usually shorter. The uncertainty in position is therefore small as we were steaming slowly most of the time the pictures were taken (i.e. below 5 knots). I assume the uncertainty is in most cases below 200 m radius of the noted position. I did not check the direction I directed the camera to with a compass at the beginning. Hence, the direction that was noted is an approximation based on the navigation map and the positioning of the ship. The uncertainty was probably around +/- 40° but initially (pictures 1-17) perhaps even higher as this documentation was a spontaneous idea and it took some time to get the orientation right. It should be easy, however, to find the location of the mountains and glaciers when being on the respective positions because the mountains have a quite characteristic shape. In a later stage of this documentation, I took pictures from the bridge and used the gyros to approximate the direction the camera was pointed at. Here the uncertainty was much lower (i.e. +/- 20° or better). Directions approximated with the help of gyros have degree values in the overview table. The ship data provided in the MSM56 cruise report will contain all kinds of sensor data from Maria S. Merian sensor setup. This data can also be used to further constrain the position the pictures were taken because the exact time a photo was shot is noted in the metadata of the .jpg photo file. The shipboard clock was set on UTC. It was 57 minutes and 45 seconds behind the time in the camera. For example 12:57:45 on the camera was 12:00:00 UTC on the ship. All pictures provided here can be used for scientific purposes. In case of usage in presentations etc. please acknowledge RV Maria S. Merian (MSM56) and Lennart T. Bach as author. Please inform me and ask for reprint permission in case you want to use the pictures for scientific publications. I would like to thank all participants and the crew of Maria S. Merian Cruise 56 (MSM56, Ecological chemistry in Arctic fjords).
Resumo:
The relationship between decadal to centennial changes in ocean circulation and climate is difficult to discern using the sparse and discontinuous instrumental record of climate and, as such, represents a large uncertainty in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We present new modern and fossil coral radiocarbon (D14C) records from Palmyra (6°N, 162°W) and Christmas (2°N, 157°W) islands to constrain central tropical Pacific ocean circulation changes during the last millennium. Seasonally to annually resolved coral D14C measurements from the 10th, 12th-17th, and 20th centuries do not contain significant interannual to decadal-scale variations, despite large changes in coral d18O on these timescales. A centennial-scale increase in coral radiocarbon from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~900-1200 AD) to the Little Ice Age (~1500-1800) can be largely explained by changes in the atmospheric D14C, as determined with a box model of Palmyra mixed layer D14C. However, large 12th century depletions in Palmyra coral D14C may reflect as much as a 100% increase in upwelling rates and/or a significant decrease in the D14C of higher-latitude source waters reaching the equatorial Pacific during this time. SEM photos reveal evidence for minor dissolution and addition of secondary aragonite in the fossil corals, but our results suggest that coral D14C is only compromised after moderate to severe diagenesis for these relatively young fossil corals.
Resumo:
Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.
Resumo:
Magnetic polarity stratigraphies from ODP Leg 177 'high resolution' sites indicate Brunhes sedimentation rates in the 12-25 cm/kyr range, with a trend of decreasing sedimentation rates with increasing age. Magnetite is the principal remanence-carrying mineral. Downcore alteration of magnetite and authigenic growth of iron sulfides introduces a high coercivity diagenetic remanence carrier (pyrrhotite). The change in pore water sulfate with depth in the sediment tends to be in step with the decrease in magnetization intensity, indicating the link between sulfate reduction and magnetite dissolution. Shipboard pass-through magnetometer data are generally very noisy due to a combination of weak magnetization intensities, drilling-related core deformation, and the influence of authigenic iron sulfides. Post-cruise progressive demagnetization of discrete samples aids the magnetostratigraphic interpretation, as these measurements are less influenced by low magnetization intensities and drilling-related deformation. The magnetostratigraphic interpretations provide much-needed calibration for biostratigraphic events in the high latitude southern oceans. Apart from the ODP Hole 745B (Kerguelen Plateau), published Plio-Pleistocene magnetostratigraphies from ODP sites in the Southern Ocean are poorly constrained. For this reason, we compare interpolated ages of 11 radiolarian events and one diatom event that occur at Hole 745B and Leg 177 sites.
Resumo:
A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial 3He (3He[ET]) to the seafloor. 3He[ET] measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset (
Resumo:
Extreme weather events can have strong negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme, short-lived, winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (for instance, 2-10 °C for 2-14 days) but upon return to normal winter climate exposes the ecosystem to much colder temperatures due to the loss of insulating snow. Single events have been shown to reduce plant reproduction and increase shoot mortality, but impacts of multiple events are little understood as are the broader impacts on community structure, growth, carbon balance, and nutrient cycling. To address these issues, we simulated week-long extreme winter warming events - using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables - for 3 consecutive years in a sub-Arctic heathland dominated by the dwarf shrubs Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea (both evergreen) and Vaccinium myrtillus (deciduous). During the growing seasons after the second and third winter event, spring bud burst was delayed by up to a week for E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus, and berry production reduced by 11-75% and 52-95% for E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus, respectively. Greater shoot mortality occurred in E. hermaphroditum (up to 52%), V. vitis-idaea (51%), and V. myrtillus (80%). Root growth was reduced by more than 25% but soil nutrient availability remained unaffected. Gross primary productivity was reduced by more than 50% in the summer following the third simulation. Overall, the extent of damage was considerable, and critically plant responses were opposite in direction to the increased growth seen in long-term summer warming simulations and the 'greening' seen for some arctic regions. Given the Arctic is warming more in winter than summer, and extreme events are predicted to become more frequent, this generates large uncertainty in our current understanding of arctic ecosystem responses to climate change.
Resumo:
Platinum-group elements (PGE), rhenium and osmium isotope data are reported for basalts from Deep Sea Drilling Project cores in the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP). Lithophile trace element and isotopic characteristics indicate a range of source components including DMM, EMII and subduction-enriched mantle. MORB-like basalts possess smooth, inclined chondrite-normalised PGE patterns with high palladium-PGE/iridium-PGE ratios, consistent with previously published data for MORB, and with the inferred compatibility of PGE. In contrast, while basalts with EMII-type lithophile element chemistry possess high Pt/Ir ratios, many have much lower Pd/Ir and unusually high Ru/Ir of >10. Similarly, back-arc samples from the Shikoku and Parece-Vela basins have very high Ru/Ir ratios (>30) and Pd/Ir as low as 1.1. Such extreme Pd/Ir and Ru/Ir ratios have not been previously reported in mafic volcanic suites and cannot be easily explained by variable degrees of melting, fractional crystallisation or by a shallow-level process such as alteration or degassing. The data appear most consistent with sampling of at least two mantle components with distinct PGE compositions. Peridotites with the required PGE characteristics (i.e. low Pd, but relatively high Ru and Re) have not been documented in oceanic mantle, but have been found in sub-continental mantle lithosphere and are the result of considerable melt depletion and selective metasomatic enrichment (mainly Re). The long-term presence of subduction zones surrounding the Philippine Sea Plate makes this a prime location for metasomatic enrichment of mantle, either through fluid enrichment or infiltration by small melt fractions. The Re-Os isotope data are difficult to interpret with confidence due to low Os concentrations in most samples and the uncertainty in sample age. Data for Site 444A (Shikoku Basin) give an age of 17.7+/-1.3 Ma (MSWD = 14), consistent with the proposed age of basement at the site and thus provides the first robust radiometric age for these samples. The initial 187Os/188Os of 0.1298+/-0.0069 is consistent with global MORB, and precludes significant metasomatic enrichment of Os by radiogenic slab fluids. Re-Os data for Sites 446A (two suites, Daito Basin) and 450 (Parece-Vela Basin) indicate ages of 73, 68 and 43 Ma, which are respectively, 30, 17 and >12 Ma older than previously proposed ages. The alkalic and tholeiitic suites from Site 446A define regression lines with different 187Os/188Osinitial (0.170+/-0.033 and 0.112+/-0.024, respectively) which could perhaps be explained by preferential sampling of interstitial, metasomatic sulphides (with higher time-integrated Re/Os ratios) by smaller percentage alkalic melts. One sample, with lithophile elements indistinguishable from MORB, is Os-rich (146 pg/g) and has an initial 187Os/188Os of 0.1594, which is at the upper limit of the accepted OIB range. Given the Os-rich nature of this sample and the lack of evidence for subduction or recycled crust inputs, this osmium isotope ratio likely reflects heterogeneity in the DMM. The dataset as a whole is a striking indication of the possible PGE and Os isotope variability within a region of mantle that has experienced a complex tectonic history.
Resumo:
We estimate tropical Atlantic upper ocean temperatures using oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca ratios in well-preserved planktonic foraminifera extracted from Albian through Santonian black shales recovered during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 207 (North Atlantic Demerara Rise). On the basis of a range of plausible assumptions regarding seawater composition at the time the data support temperatures between 33° and 42°C. In our low-resolution data set spanning ~84-100 Ma a local temperature maximum occurs in the late Turonian, and a possible minimum occurs in the mid to early late Cenomanian. The relation between single species foraminiferal d18O and Mg/Ca suggests that the ratio of magnesium to calcium in the Turonian-Coniacian ocean may have been lower than in the Albian-Cenomanian ocean, perhaps coincident with an ocean 87Sr/86Sr minimum. The carbon isotopic compositions of distinct marine algal biomarkers were measured in the same sediment samples. The d13C values of phytane, combined with foraminiferal d13C and inferred temperatures, were used to estimate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through this interval. Estimates of atmospheric CO2 concentrations range between 600 and 2400 ppmv. Within the uncertainty in the various proxies, there is only a weak overall correspondence between higher (lower) tropical temperatures and more (less) atmospheric CO2. The GENESIS climate model underpredicts tropical Atlantic temperatures inferred from ODP Leg 207 foraminiferal d18O and Mg/Ca when we specify approximate CO2 concentrations estimated from the biomarker isotopes in the same samples. Possible errors in the temperature and CO2 estimates and possible deficiencies in the model are discussed. The potential for and effects of substantially higher atmospheric methane during Cretaceous anoxic events, perhaps derived from high fluxes from the oxygen minimum zone, are considered in light of recent work that shows a quadratic relation between increased methane flux and atmospheric CH4 concentrations. With 50 ppm CH4, GENESIS sea surface temperatures approximate the minimum upper ocean temperatures inferred from proxy data when CO2 concentrations specified to the model are near those inferred using the phytane d13C proxy. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 3500 ppm or more are still required in the model in order to reproduce inferred maximum temperatures.
Resumo:
In an attempt to establish criteria for obtaining reliable K-Ar dates, conventional K-Ar studies of several Deep Sea Drilling Project sites were undertaken. K-Ar dates of these rocks may be subject to inaccuracies as the result of sea-water alteration. Inaccuracies may also result from the presence of excess radiogenic 40Ar trapped in rapidly cooled rocks at the time of their formation. The results obtained for DSDP Leg 34 basalts indicate that lowering of K-Ar dates, which is related to potassium addition by weathering, is a major cause of uncertainty in obtaining reliable K-Ar dates for deep-sea rocks. It could not be determined if the potassium addition to the basalts occurred at the time of formation, t_o, or continuously from t_o to the present. Calculations show that sediment cover is not a significant barrier to the diffusion of potassium into the basalt. 40Ar loss contributes, at least in part, to the lowering of the K-Ar date in rocks that have added potassium. The meaning of the K-Ar results obtained for DSDP Legs 35 and 2 basalts could not be unambiguously established. Because of the problems involved, caution must be used in interpreting the meaning of conventional K-Ar dates for deep-sea rocks.