EPANET Input Files of New York tunnels and Pacific City used in a metamodel-based optimization study

Metamodels have proven be very useful when it comes to reducing the computational requirements of Evolutionary Algorithm-based optimization by acting as quick-solving surrogates for slow-solving fitness functions. The relationship between metamodel scope and objective function varies between applications, that is, in some cases the metamodel acts as a surrogate for the whole fitness function, whereas in other cases it replaces only a component of the fitness function. This paper presents a formalized qualitative process to evaluate a fitness function to determine the most suitable metamodel scope so as to increase the likelihood of calibrating a high-fidelity metamodel and hence obtain good optimization results in a reasonable amount of time. The process is applied to the risk-based optimization of water distribution systems; a very computationally-intensive problem for real-world systems. The process is validated with a simple case study (modified New York Tunnels) and the power of metamodelling is demonstrated on a real-world case study (Pacific City) with a computational speed-up of several orders of magnitude.

Stable isotope and Mg/Ca ratio of sediment core GeoB12610-2

To reconstruct the still poorly understood thermocline fluctuations in the western tropical Indian Ocean, a sediment core located off Tanzania (GeoB12610-2; 04°49.00'S, 39°25.42'E, 399?m water depth) covering the last 35 ka was analysed. Mg/Ca-derived temperatures from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (white) and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei indicate that the last glacial was ~2.5 °C colder in the surface waters and ~3.5 °C colder in the thermocline compared with the present day. The depth of the thermocline and thus the stratification of the water column were shallower during glacial periods and deepened during the deglaciation and Holocene. The increased inflow of Southern Ocean Intermediate Waters via 'ocean tunnels' appears to cool the thermocline from below, leading to a similarity between the thermocline record of GeoB12610-2 with the Antarctic EDML temperature curve during the glacial. With rising sea level and the corresponding greater inflow of Red Sea Waters and Indonesian Intermediate Waters, the proportion of Southern Ocean Intermediate Water within the South Equatorial Current is reduced and, by Holocene time, the correlation to Antarctica is barely traceable. Comparison with the eastern Indian Ocean reveals that the thermocline depth reverses from the last glacial to present.

Condensation versus air density change as a major cause of airflow: experimental evidence, link to data files and videos

The dominant model of atmospheric circulation posits that hot air rises, creating horizontal winds. A second major driver has recently been proposed by Makarieva and Gorshkov in their biotic pump theory (BPT), which suggests that evapotranspiration from natural closed-canopy forests causes intense condensation, and hence winds from ocean to land. Critics of the BPT argue that air movement to fill the partial vacuum caused by condensation is always isotropic, and therefore causes no net air movement (Bunyard, 2015, hdl:11232/397). This paper explores the physics of water condensation under mild atmospheric conditions, within a purpose-designed square-section 4.8 m-tall closed-system structure. Two enclosed vertical columns are connected at top and bottom by two horizontal tunnels, around which 19.5 m**3 of atmospheric air can circulate freely, allowing rotary airflows in either direction. This air can be cooled and/or warmed by refrigeration pipes and a heating mat, and changes in airflow, temperature, humidity and barometric pressure measured in real time. The study investigates whether the "hot-air-rises" or an implosive condensation model can better explain the results of more than 100 experiments. The data show a highly significant correlation (R2 >0.96, p value <0.001) between observed airflows and partial pressure changes from condensation. While the kinetic energy of the refrigerated air falls short of that required in bringing about observed airflows by a factor of at least 30, less than a tenth of the potential kinetic energy from condensation is shown to be sufficient. The assumption that condensation of water vapour is always isotropic is therefore incorrect. Condensation can be anisotropic, and in the laboratory does cause sustained airflow.