6 resultados para Transitory shocks, mean reversion, rainfall, conflict

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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A high resolution marine pollen record from site GeoB1023, west of the northern Namib desert provides data on vegetation and climate change for the last 21 ka at an average resolution of 185 y. Pollen and spores are mainly delivered to the site by the Cunene river and by surface and mid-tropospheric wind systems. The main pollen source areas are located between 13°S and 21°S, which includes the northern Namib desert and semi-desert, the Angola-northern Namibian highland, and the north-western Kalahari. The pollen spectra reflect environmental changes in the region. The last glacial maximum (LGM) was characterised by colder and more arid conditions than at present, when a vegetation with temperate elements such as Asteroideae, Ericaceae, and Restionaceae grew north of 21°S. At 17.5 ka cal. B.P., an amelioration both in temperature and humidity terminated the LGM but, in the northern Kalahari, mean annual rainfall in the interval 17.5-14.4 ka cal. B.P. was probably 100-150 mm lower than at present (400-500 mm/y). The Late-glacial to early Holocene transition includes two arid periods, i.e. 14.4-12.5 and 10.9-9.3 ka cal. B.P. The last part of the former period may be correlated with the Younger Dryas. The warmest and most humid period in the Holocene occurred between 6.3 and 4.8 ka cal. B.P. During the last 2000 years, human impact, as reflected by indications of deforestation, enhanced burning and overgrazing, progressively intensified.

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We present a 3000-yr rainfall reconstruction from the Galápagos Islands that is based on paired biomarker records from the sediment of El Junco Lake. Located in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the climate of the Galápagos Islands is governed by movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a novel method for reconstructing past ENSO- and ITCZ-related rainfall changes through analysis of molecular and isotopic biomarker records representing several types of plants and algae that grow under differing climatic conditions. We propose that ?D values of dinosterol, a sterol produced by dinoflagellates, record changes in mean rainfall in El Junco Lake, while dD values of C34 botryococcene, a hydrocarbon unique to the green alga Botryococcus braunii, record changes in rainfall associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. We use these proxies to infer changes in mean rainfall and El Niño-related rainfall over the past 3000 yr. During periods in which the inferred change in El Niño-related rainfall opposed the change in mean rainfall, we infer changes in the amount of ITCZ-related rainfall. Simulations with an idealized isotope hydrology model of El Junco Lake help illustrate the interpretation of these proxy reconstructions. Opposing changes in El Niño- and ITCZ-related rainfall appear to account for several of the largest inferred hydrologic changes in El Junco Lake. We propose that these reconstructions can be used to infer changes in frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events and changes in the position of the ITCZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 3000 yr. Comparison with El Junco Lake sediment grain size records indicates general agreement of inferred rainfall changes over the late Holocene.

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Nutrient supply in the area off Northwest Africa is mainly regulated by two processes, coastal upwelling and deposition of Saharan dust. In the present study, both processes were analyzed and evaluated by different methods, including cross-correlation, multiple correlation, and event statistics, using remotely sensed proxies of the period from 2000 to 2008 to investigate their influence on the marine environment. The remotely sensed chlorophyll-a concentration was used as a proxy for the phytoplankton biomass stimulated by nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from deeper water layers and from the atmosphere. Satellite-derived alongshore wind stress and sea-surface temperature were applied as proxies for the strength and reflection of coastal upwelling processes. The westward wind and the dust component of the aerosol optical depth describe the transport direction of atmospheric dust and the atmospheric dust column load. Alongshore wind stress and induced upwelling processes were most significantly responsible for the surface chlorophyll-a variability, accounting for about 24% of the total variance, mainly in the winter and spring due to the strong north-easterly trade winds. The remotely sensed proxies allowed determination of time lags between biological response and its forcing processes. A delay of up to 16 days in the surface chlorophyll-a concentration due to the alongshore wind stress was determined in the northern winter and spring. Although input of atmospheric iron by dust storms can stimulate new phytoplankton production in the study area, only 5% of the surface chlorophyll-a variability could be ascribed to the dust component in the aerosol optical depth. All strong desert storms were identified by an event statistics in the time period from 2000 to 2008. The 57 strong storms were studied in relation to their biological response. Six events were clearly detected in which an increase of chlorophyll-a was caused by Saharan dust input and not by coastal upwelling processes. Time lags of <8 days, 8 days, and 16 days were determined. An increase in surface chlorophyll-a concentration of up to 2.4 mg m**3 after dust storms in which the dust component of the aerosol optical depth was up to 0.9 was observed.

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Climate change, including ocean acidification (OA), presents fundamental challenges to marine biodiversity and sustained ecosystem health. We determined reproductive response (measured as naupliar production), cuticle composition and stage specific growth of the copepod Tisbe battagliai over three generations at four pH conditions (pH 7.67, 7.82, 7.95, and 8.06). Naupliar production increased significantly at pH 7.95 compared with pH 8.06 followed by a decline at pH 7.82. Naupliar production at pH 7.67 was higher than pH 7.82. We attribute the increase at pH 7.95 to an initial stress response which was succeeded by a hormesis-like response at pH 7.67. A multi-generational modelling approach predicted a gradual decline in naupliar production over the next 100 years (equivalent to approximately 2430 generations). There was a significant growth reduction (mean length integrated across developmental stage) relative to controls. There was a significant increase in the proportion of carbon relative to oxygen within the cuticle as seawater pH decreased. Changes in growth, cuticle composition and naupliar production strongly suggest that copepods subjected to OA-induced stress preferentially reallocate resources towards maintaining reproductive output at the expense of somatic growth and cuticle composition. These responses may drive shifts in life history strategies that favour smaller brood sizes, females and perhaps later maturing females, with the potential to profoundly destabilise marine trophodynamics.

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We investigated controls on the water chemistry of a South Ecuadorian cloud forest catchment which is partly pristine, and partly converted to extensive pasture. From April 2007 to May 2008 water samples were taken weekly to biweekly at nine different subcatchments, and were screened for differences in electric conductivity, pH, anion, as well as element composition. A principal component analysis was conducted to reduce dimensionality of the data set and define major factors explaining variation in the data. Three main factors were isolated by a subset of 10 elements (Ca2+, Ce, Gd, K+, Mg2+, Na+, Nd, Rb, Sr, Y), explaining around 90% of the data variation. Land-use was the major factor controlling and changing water chemistry of the subcatchments. A second factor was associated with the concentration of rare earth elements in water, presumably highlighting other anthropogenic influences such as gravel excavation or road construction. Around 12% of the variation was explained by the third component, which was defined by the occurrence of Rb and K and represents the influence of vegetation dynamics on element accumulation and wash-out. Comparison of base- and fast flow concentrations led to the assumption that a significant portion of soil water from around 30 cm depth contributes to storm flow, as revealed by increased rare earth element concentrations in fast flow samples. Our findings demonstrate the utility of multi-tracer principal component analysis to study tropical headwater streams, and emphasize the need for effective land management in cloud forest catchments.