46 resultados para Time-trends

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Hair sampled from 96 East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) over the periods 1892-1927 and 1988-2009 was analyzed for cortisol as a proxy to investigate temporal patterns of environmental stress. Cortisol concentration was independent of sex and age, and was found at significantly higher (p<0.001) concentrations in historical hair samples (1892-1927; n = 8) relative to recent ones (1988-2009; n = 88). In addition, there was a linear time trend in cortisol concentration of the recent samples (p< 0.01), with an annual decrease of 2.7%. The recent hair samples were also analyzed for major bioaccumulative, persistent organic pollutants (POPs). There were no obvious POP related time trends or correlations between hair cortisol and hair POP concentrations. Thus, polar bear hair appears to be a relatively poor indicator of the animal's general POP load in adipose tissue. However, further investigations are warranted to explore the reasons for the temporal decrease found in the bears' hair cortisol levels.

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Organic complexation of dissolved iron (dFe) was investigated in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean in order to understand the distribution of Fe over the whole water column. The total concentration of dissolved organic ligands ([Lt]) measured by voltammetry ranged between 0.54 and 1.84 nEq of M Fe whereas the conditional binding strength (K') ranged between 10**21.4 and 10**22.8. For the first time, trends in Fe-organic complexation were observed in an ocean basin by examining the ratio ([Lt]/[dFe]), defined as the organic ligand concentration divided by the dissolved Fe concentration. The [Lt]/[dFe] ratio indicates the saturation state of the natural ligands with Fe; a ratio near 1 means saturation of the ligands leading to precipitation of Fe. Reversely, high ratios mean Fe depletion and show a high potential for Fe solubilisation. In surface waters where phytoplankton is present low dissolved Fe and high variable ligand concentrations were found. Here the [Lt]/[dFe] ratio was on average 4.4. It was especially high (5.6-26.7) in the HNLC (High Nutrient, Low Chlorophyll) regions, where Fe was depleted. The [Lt]/[dFe] ratio decreased with depth due to increasing dissolved Fe concentrations and became constant below 450 m, indicating a steady state between ligand and Fe. Relatively low [Lt]/[dFe] ratios (between 1.1 and 2.7) existed in deep water north of the Southern Boundary, facilitating Fe precipitation. The [Lt]/[dFe] ratio increased southwards from the Southern Boundary on the Zero Meridian and from east to west in the Weddell Gyre due to changes both in ligand characteristics and in dissolved iron concentration. High [Lt]/[dFe] ratio expresses Fe depletion versus ligand production in the surface. The decrease with depth reflects the increase of [dFe] which favours scavenging and (co-) precipitation, whereas a horizontal increase in the deep waters results from an increasing distance from Fe sources. This increase in the [Lt]/[dFe] ratio at depth shows the very resistant nature of the dissolved organic ligands.

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The evolution of calcareous dinoflagellate communities has been investigated for the latest Cretaceous to earliest Neogene interval of the mid-latitude South Atlantic. In doing so, the response of calcareous dinoflagellates to Cenozoic climatic change has been addressed for the first time. Trends in species composition and distribution patterns of wall types indicate significant changes which correlate with major palaeoenvironmental modifications. A first major shift concerning the relative abundance of species and wall types occurred across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. The associations remained stable during the entire Paleocene and Eocene. Only in the late Eocene did a dramatic decrease in temperature cause a slight diversification. A second major shift in the abundance patterns occurred across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. The early Miocene warming is possibly reflected in the distinct increase in relative abundance of one species. The assemblages of calcareous dinoflagellates evidently react to major climatic changes during the Cenozoic. These poorly investigated organisms may thus provide an important contribution to the understanding of earth's palaeoclimatic evolution.

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Arctic permafrost landscapes are among the most vulnerable and dynamic landscapes globally, but due to their extent and remoteness most of the landscape changes remain unnoticed. In order to detect disturbances in these areas we developed an automated processing chain for the calculation and analysis of robust trends of key land surface indicators based on the full record of available Landsat TM, ETM +, and OLI data. The methodology was applied to the ~ 29,000 km**2 Lena Delta in Northeast Siberia, where robust trend parameters (slope, confidence intervals of the slope, and intercept) were calculated for Tasseled Cap Greenness, Wetness and Brightness, NDVI, and NDWI, and NDMI based on 204 Landsat scenes for the observation period between 1999 and 2014. The resulting datasets revealed regional greening trends within the Lena Delta with several localized hot-spots of change, particularly in the vicinity of the main river channels. With a 30-m spatial resolution various permafrost-thaw related processes and disturbances, such as thermokarst lake expansion and drainage, fluvial erosion, and coastal changes were detected within the Lena Delta region, many of which have not been noticed or described before. Such hotspots of permafrost change exhibit significantly different trend parameters compared to non-disturbed areas. The processed dataset, which is made freely available through the data archive PANGAEA, will be a useful resource for further process specific analysis by researchers and land managers. With the high level of automation and the use of the freely available Landsat archive data, the workflow is scalable and transferrable to other regions, which should enable the comparison of land surface changes in different permafrost affected regions and help to understand and quantify permafrost landscape dynamics.

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The Arctic hydrological cycle throughout the Holocene is analyzed based on the results of transient simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model ECHO-G. The results suggest a ~ 2 % increase of mid-Holocene to preindustrial Arctic river discharges for the Eurasian continent. However, rivers of the North America Arctic realm show a moderate runoff decline of approximately 4 to 5 % for the same period. The total river discharge into the Arctic Ocean has remained at an approximately constant preindustrial level since the mid Holocene. The positive discharge trend within Eurasia is caused by a more rapid decrease in local net evaporation compared to a smaller decline in advected moisture and hence precipitation. This effect is neither recognized within the North American Arctic domain nor in the far eastern part of the Eurasian Arctic realm. A detailed comparison of these model findings with a variety of proxy studies is conducted. The collected proxy records show trends of continental surface temperatures and precipitation rates that are consistent with the simulations. A continuation of the transient Holocene runs for the 19th and 20th century with increased greenhouse gases indicates an increase of the total river influx into the Arctic Ocean of up to 7.6 %. The Eurasian river discharges increase by 7.5 %, the North American discharges by up to 8.4 %. The most rapid increases have been detected since the beginning of the 20th century. These results are corroborated by the observed rising of Arctic river discharges during the last century which is attributed to anthropogenic warming. The acceleration of the Arctic hydrological cycle in the 20th century is without precedence in the Holocene.

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Calcareous nannoplankton assemblages and benthic d18O isotopes of Pliocene deep-sea sediments of ODP site 1172 (East of Tasmania) have been studied to improve our knowledge of the Southern Ocean paleoceanography. Our study site is located just north of the Subtropical Front (STF), an ideal setting to monitor migrations of the STF during our study period, between 3.45 and 2.45 Ma. The assemblage identified at ODP site 1172 has been interpreted as characteristic for the transitional zone water mass, located south of the STF, based on: (i) the low abundances (< 1%) of subtropical taxa, (ii) relatively high percentages of Coccolithus pelagicus, a subpolar type species, (iii) abundances from 2-10% of Calcidiscus leptoporus, a species that frequently inhabits the zone south of the STF and (iv) the high abundances of small Noelaerhabdaceae which at present dominates the zone south of the STF. Across our interval the calcareous nannoplankton manifests glacial-interglacial variability. We have identified cold events, characterized by high abundances of C. pelagicus which coincide with glacial periods, except during G7. After 3.1 Ma cold events are more frequent, in concordance with global cooling trends. Around 2.75 Ma, the interglacial stage G7 is characterized by anomalous low temperatures which most likely are linked to definite closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS), an event that is believed to have had global consequences. A gradual increase of very small Reticulofenestra across our section marks a significant trend in the small Noelaerhabdaceae species group and has been linked to a general enhanced mixing of the water column in agreement with previous studies. It is suggested that a rapid decline of small Gephyrocapsa after isotopic stage G7 might be related to the cooling observed in our study site after the closure of the CAS.

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The MARECHIARA-mesozooplankton dataset contains mesozooplankton data collected in the ongoing time-series at Sation MC (40°48.5' N, 14°15' E) in the Gulf of Naples. This dataset spans over the period 1984-2006 and contains data of mesozooplankton abundance and species composition as well as biomass (as dry weight). Mesozooplankton was regularly sampled in 1984-1990 and 1995-2006, only a few samples were collected in 1991-1992 and no samples in 1993-1994. During the first period of the series sampling frequency was fortnightly, and weekly since 1995.

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Long term global archives of high-moderate spatial resolution, multi-spectral satellite imagery are now readily accessible, but are not being fully utilised by management agencies due to the lack of appropriate methods to consistently produce accurate and timely management ready information. This work developed an object-based remote sensing approach to map land cover and seagrass distribution in an Australian coastal environment for a 38 year Landsat image time-series archive (1972-2010). Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) imagery were used without in situ field data input (but still using field knowledge) to produce land and seagrass cover maps every year data were available, resulting in over 60 map products over the 38 year archive. Land cover was mapped annually using vegetation, bare ground, urban and agricultural classes. Seagrass distribution was also mapped annually, and in some years monthly, via horizontal projected foliage cover classes, sand and deep water. Land cover products were validated using aerial photography and seagrass maps were validated with field survey data, producing several measures of accuracy. An average overall accuracy of 65% and 80% was reported for seagrass and land cover products respectively, which is consistent with other studies in the area. This study is the first to show moderate spatial resolution, long term annual changes in land cover and seagrass in an Australian environment, created without the use of in situ data; and only one of a few similar studies globally. The land cover products identify several long term trends; such as significant increases in South East Queensland's urban density and extent, vegetation clearing in rural and rural-residential areas, and inter-annual variation in dry vegetation types in western South East Queensland. The seagrass cover products show that there has been a minimal overall change in seagrass extent, but that seagrass cover level distribution is extremely dynamic; evidenced by large scale migrations of higher seagrass cover levels and several sudden and significant changes in cover level. These mapping products will allow management agencies to build a baseline assessment of their resources, understand past changes and help inform implementation and planning of management policy to address potential future changes.

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Compared to mid-latitude deserts, the properties, formation and evolution of desert pavements and the underlying vesicular layer in Antarctica are poorly understood. This study examines the desert pavements and the vesicular layer from seven soil chronosequences in the Transantarctic Mountains that have developed on two contrasting parent materials: sandstone-dolerite and granite-gneiss. The pavement density commonly ranges from 63 to 92% with a median value of 80% and does not vary significantly with time of exposure or parent material composition. The dominant size range of clasts decreases with time of exposure, ranging from 16-64 mm on Holocene and late Quaternary surfaces to 8-16 mm on surfaces of middle Quaternary and older age. The proportion of clasts with ventifaction increases progressively through time from 20% on drifts of Holocene and late Quaternary age to 35% on Miocene-aged drifts. Desert varnish forms rapidly, especially on dolerite clasts, with nearly 100% cover on surfaces of early Quaternary and older age. Macropitting occurs only on clasts that have been exposed since the Miocene. A pavement development index, based on predominant clast-size class, pavement density, and the proportion of clasts with ventifaction, varnish, and pits, readily differentiated pavements according to relative age. From these findings we judge that desert pavements initially form from a surficial concentration of boulders during till deposition followed by a short period of deflation and a longer period of progressive chemical and physical weathering of surface clasts. The vesicular layer that underlies the desert pavement averages 4 cm in thickness and is enriched in silt, which is contributed primarily by weathering rather than eolian deposition. A comparison is made between desert pavement properties in mid-latitude deserts and Antarctic deserts.