Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Clay mineralogical assemblages, Sm-Nd concentrations, Sm and Nd isotopic ratios and oxygen isotope ratios, OIS number and the age model of ODP Site 105-646

We present 40 Sm-Nd isotope measurements of the clay-size (<2 µm) fractions of sediments from the Southern Greenland rise (ODP-646) that span the last 365 kyr. These data track changes in the relative supply of fine particles carried into the deep Labrador Sea by the Western Boundary Under Current (WBUC) back to the fourth glacial-interglacial cycles. Earlier studies revealed three general sources of particles to the core site: (i) Precambrian crustal material from Canada, Greenland, and/or Scandinavia (North American Shield - NAS), (ii) Palaeozoic or younger crustal material from East Greenland, NW Europe, and/or western Scandinavia (Young Crust - YC) and (iii) volcanic material from Iceland and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). Clay-size fractions from glacial sediments have the lowest Nd isotopic ratios. Supplies of young crustal particles were similar during glacial oxygen isotope stages (OIS) 2, 6, and 10. In contrast the mean volcanic contributions decreased relative to old craton material from OIS 10 to OIS 6 and then from OIS 6 to OIS 2. The glacial OIS 8 interval displays a mean Sm/Nd ratio similar to those of interglacials OIS 1, 5, and 9. Compared with other interglacials, OIS 7 was marked by a higher YC contribution but a similar ~30% MAR supply. The overall NAS contribution dropped by a factor of 2 during each glacial/interglacial transition, with the MAR contribution broadly replacing it during interglacials. To decipher between higher supplies and/or dilution, particle fluxes from each end member were estimated. Glacial NAS fluxes were systematically higher than interglacial fluxes. During the time interval examined, fine particle supplies to the Labrador Sea were strongly controlled by proximal ice-margin erosion and thus echoed the glacial stage intensity. In contrast, the WBUC-carried MAR supplies from the eastern basins did not change significantly throughout the last 365 kyr, except for a marked increase in surface-sediments that suggests unique modern conditions. Distal WBUC-controlled inputs from the Northern and NE North Atlantic seem to have been less variable than proximal supplies linked with glacial erosion rate.