Simulated temperature changes as a result of Antarctic ice sheet growth and CO2 reduction

During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.

Temperature-dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae)

Temperature-dependent population growth of diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.), a prolific insect pest of crucifer vegetables, was studied under six constant temperatures in the laboratory. The objective of the study was to predict the impacts of temperature changes on the population of DBM at high-resolution scales along altitudinal gradients and under climate change scenarios. Non-linear functions were fitted on the data for modeling the development, mortality, longevity and oviposition of the pest. The best-fitted functions for each life stage were compiled for estimating the life table parameters of the species by stochastic simulations. To quantify the impacts on the pest, three indices (establishment, generation and activity) were computed using the estimates of life table parameters and temperature data obtained at local scale (current scenario 2013) and downscaled climate change data (future scenario 2055) from the AFRICLIM database. To measure and represent the impacts of temperature change along the altitude on the pest; the indices were mapped along the altitudinal gradients of Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills, in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Potential impact of the changes between climate scenarios 2013 and 2055 was assessed. The data files included in this database were utilized for the above analysis to develop temperature dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella to assess current and future distribution along eastern African Afromontanes.

Temperature and salinity reconstruction for sediment core GeoB3313-1

We reconstructed changes of temperature, salinity, and productivity within the southern Peru-Chile Current during the last 8000 years from a high-resolution sediment core recovered at 41°S using alkenones, isotope ratios of planktic foraminifera, biogenic opal, and organic carbon. Paleotemperatures and paleosalinities reached maximum values at ~5500 years ago and thereafter declined to modern values, whereas paleoproductivity continuously increased throughout the last 8000 years. We ascribe these long-term Holocene trends primarily to latitudinal shifts of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The concurrence with shifts in the position of the Southern Westerlies points to a common response of atmospheric and oceanographic circulation patterns off southern Chile. Millennial- to centennial-scale fluctuations of paleotemperatures and paleosalinities, on the other hand, lag displacements in the position of the Southern Westerlies but reveal a significant correlation to short-term temperature changes in Antarctica, indicating a high-latitude control of the ACC at these timescales.

Pliocene foraminifera and SST changes in ODP Site 184-1125

Planktonic foraminiferal census counts were converted to sea surface temperature (SST) estimates using the modern analogue technique (MAT) for the middle-late Pliocene (4.0-2.37 Ma) in ODP Site 1125, north side of Chatham Rise, SW Pacific Ocean. MAT SST(warm) records range between 8°C and 20.5°C, and MAT SST(cold) records parallel that pattern but with a temperature range of 5-15°C. The modern position of Site 1125 is just north of the Subtropical Front and has an annual temperature range of ~14-18°C. Pliocene warmest temperatures are 1-2° warmer than modern summers, whereas cold season SST records are up to 6-10°C cooler than modern winters. Overall average temperatures at the site are 2-3°C cooler than modern temperatures during a time of sustained global warmth. Three major cold excursions centred on 3.35, 3.0, and 2.8 Ma showed warm season temperatures over 5°C colder than the last glacial maximum, experiencing temperatures typical of modern subantarctic waters. Two minor cold excursions at 2.7 Ma and 2.4 Ma experienced temperatures cooler than modern winters but not as cold as last glacial conditions. Cold season SSTs show a shift to warmer climate upward through the study interval, whereas warm season estimates remain essentially unchanged. We interpret the strong regional cooling of subtropical Southwest Pacific water through the middle-late Pliocene as having been caused by increased upwelling. It is also possible that the subtropical frontal zone moved north over the site in the Pliocene, however, this is considered the least likely interpretation. Our record of cool conditions in the Southwest Pacific corroborate evidence of cooler than modern conditions in other regions of the western Pacific through the mid-Pliocene despite overall global warming.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction of ODP Site 175-1087

Successful application of the alkenone palaeothermometer, the UK'37 index, relies upon the assumption that fossil alkenone synthesisers responded to growth-temperature changes in a similar manner to the modern producers, chiefly the coccolithophores Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica. We compare coccolith and UK'37 data from ODP Site 1087 in the south-east Atlantic between 1500 and 500 ka, and show that evolutionary events and changes in species dominance within the coccolithophore populations had little impact on the UK'37 record. The relative abundances of the C37 and C38 alkenones also closely resembled those found in modern populations, and suggest a similar temperature sensitivity of UK'37 during the early and mid-Pleistocene to that found at present. These results support the application of the UK'37 index to reconstruct sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout the Quaternary. The UK'37 record at ODP Site 1087 contains an SST signal that documents the emergence of the 100-kyr cycles that characterise the late Quaternary ice volume records. This is preceded by significant cooling at ODP Site 1087, marked by a negative shift in SSTs and a positive shift in the planktonic delta18O some 250-kyr earlier, at ca 1150-1000 ka. This results in a permanent fall in average SSTs of around 1.5 °C. The predicted increase in aridity onshore as a result of this cooling can be identified in a number of published records from southern Africa, and may have played a role in some important evolutionary events of the mid-Pleistocene.

Sea surface temperature estimation of the South Tasman Rise

The Subtropical Front (STF) marking the northern boundary of the Southern Ocean has a steep gradient in sea surface temperature (SST) of approximately 4°C over 0.5° of latitude. Presently, in the region south of Tasmania, the STF lies nominally at 47°S in the summer and 45°S in the winter. We present here SST reconstructions in a latitudinal transect of cores across the South Tasman Rise, southeast of Australia, during the late Quaternary. SST reconstructions are based on two paleotemperature proxies, alkenones and faunal assemblages, which are used to assess past changes in SST in spring and summer. The north-south alignment in core locations allows reconstruction of movement of the STF over the last 100 ka. Surface water temperatures during the last glaciation in this region were ~4°C colder than today. Additional temperature changes greater in magnitude than 4°C seen in individual cores can be attributed to changes in the water mass overlying the core site caused by the movement of the front across that location. During the penultimate interglacial, SST was ~2°C warmer and the STF was largely positioned south of 47°S. Movement of the STF to the north occurred during cool climate periods such as the last marine isotope stages 3 and 4. In the last glaciation, the front was at its farthest north position, becoming pinned against the Tasmanian landmass. It moved south by 4° latitude to 47°S in summer during the deglaciation but remained north of 45°S in spring throughout the early deglaciation. After 11 ka B.P. inferred invigoration of the East Australia Current appears to have pushed the STF seasonally south of the East Tasman Plateau, until after 6 ka B.P. when it achieved its present configuration.

Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on an intertidal meiobenthic community

In the near future, the marine environment is likely to be subjected to simultaneous increases in temperature and decreased pH. The potential effects of these changes on intertidal, meiofaunal assemblages were investigated using a mesocosm experiment. Artificial Substrate Units containing meiofauna from the extreme low intertidal zone were exposed for 60 days to eight experimental treatments (four replicates for each treatment) comprising four pH levels: 8.0 (ambient control), 7.7 & 7.3 (predicted changes associated with ocean acidification), and 6.7 (CO2 point-source leakage from geological storage), crossed with two temperatures: 12 °C (ambient control) and 16 °C (predicted). Community structure, measured using major meiofauna taxa was significantly affected by pH and temperature. Copepods and copepodites showed the greatest decline in abundance in response to low pH and elevated temperature. Nematodes increased in abundance in response to low pH and temperature rise, possibly caused by decreased predation and competition for food owing to the declining macrofauna density. Nematode species composition changed significantly between the different treatments, and was affected by both seawater acidification and warming. Estimated nematode species diversity, species evenness, and the maturity index, were substantially lower at 16 °C, whereas trophic diversity was slightly higher at 16 °C except at pH 6.7. This study has demonstrated that the combination of elevated levels of CO2 and ocean warming may have substantial effects on structural and functional characteristics of meiofaunal and nematode communities, and that single stressor experiments are unlikely to encompass the complexity of abiotic and biotic interactions. At the same time, ecological interactions may lead to complex community responses to pH and temperature changes in the interstitial environment.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction of sediment core GeoB6518-1

Past hydrological changes in Africa have been linked to various climatic processes, depending on region and timescale. Long-term precipitation changes in the regions of northern and southern Africa influenced by the monsoons are thought to have been governed by precessional variations in summer insolation (Kutzbach and Liu, 1997, doi:10.1126/science.278.5337.440; Partridge et al., 1997, doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(97)00005-X). Conversely, short-term precipitation changes in the northern African tropics have been linked to North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, affecting the northward extension of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and its associated rainbelt (Hastenrath, 1990, doi:10.1002/joc.3370100504, Street-Perrott and Perrott, 1990, doi:10.1038/343607a0). Our knowledge of large-scale hydrological changes in equatorial Africa and their forcing factors is, however, limited (Gasse, 2000, doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00061-X). Here we analyse the isotopic composition of terrigenous plant lipids, extracted from a marine sediment core close to the Congo River mouth, in order to reconstruct past central African rainfall variations and compare this record to sea surface temperature changes in the South Atlantic Ocean. We find that central African precipitation during the past 20,000 years was mainly controlled by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the tropics and subtropics of the South Atlantic Ocean, whereas we find no evidence that changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone had a significant influence on the overall moisture availability in central Africa. We conclude that changes in ocean circulation, and hence sea surface temperature patterns, were important in modulating atmospheric moisture transport onto the central African continent.

Orbital-resolution Pliocene-Pleistocene simulations of CO2, sea level, global temperature and benthic d18O, and d11B-based proxy-CO2 data

During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

Methylation index of Branched Tetraethers (MBT) and Cyclization ratio of Branched Tetraethers (CBT), annual mean air temperature and soil pH of sediment core GeoB6518-1 in the Congo River basin

We analyzed the distribution of branched tetraether membrane lipids derived from soil bacteria in a marine sediment record that was recovered close to the Congo River outflow, and the results enabled us to reconstruct large-scale continental temperature changes in tropical Africa that span the past 25,000 years. Tropical African temperatures gradually increased from ~21° to 25°C over the last deglaciation, which is a larger warming than estimated for the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A direct comparison with sea-surface temperature estimates from the same core revealed that the land-sea temperature difference was, through the thermal pressure gradient, an important control on central African precipitation patterns.