Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

Ocean acidification increases cadmium accumulation in marine bivalves: a potential threat to seafood safety

To date, the effects of ocean acidification on toxic metals accumulation and the underlying molecular mechanism remains unknown in marine bivalve species. In the present study, the effects of the realistic future ocean pCO2 levels on the cadmium (Cd) accumulation in the gills, mantle and adductor muscles of three bivalve species, Mytilus edulis, Tegillarca granosa, and Meretrix meretrix, were investigated. The results obtained suggested that all species tested accumulated significantly higher Cd (p<0.05) in the CO2 acidified seawater during the 30 days experiment and the health risk of Cd (based on the estimated target hazard quotients, THQ) via consumption of M. meretrix at pH 7.8 and 7.4 significantly increased 1.21 and 1.32 times respectively, suggesting a potential threat to seafood safety. The ocean acidification-induced increase in Cd accumulation may have occurred due to (i) the ocean acidification increased the concentration of Cd and the Cd2+/Ca2+ in the seawater, which in turn increased the Cd influx through Ca channel; (ii) the acidified seawater may have brought about epithelia damage, resulting in easier Cd penetration; and (iii) ocean acidification hampered Cd exclusion.