Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.

Carbonate system data on the Molokai reef flat

The severity of the impact of elevated atmospheric pCO2 to coral reef ecosystems depends, in part, on how seawater pCO2 affects the balance between calcification and dissolution of carbonate sediments. Presently, there are insufficient published data that relate concentrations of pCO2 and CO3**2- to in situ rates of reef calcification in natural settings to accurately predict the impact of elevated atmospheric pCO2 on calcification and dissolution processes. Rates of net calcification and dissolution, CO3**2- concentrations, and pCO2 were measured, in situ, on patch reefs, bare sand, and coral rubble on the Molokai reef flat in Hawaii. Rates of calcification ranged from 0.03 to 2.30 mmol CaCO3/m**2/h and dissolution ranged from -0.05 to -3.3 mmol CaCO3/m**2/h. Calcification and dissolution varied diurnally with net calcification primarily occurring during the day and net dissolution occurring at night. These data were used to calculate threshold values for pCO2 and CO3**2- at which rates of calcification and dissolution are equivalent. Results indicate that calcification and dissolution are linearly correlated with both CO3**2- and pCO2. Threshold pCO2 and CO3**2- values for individual substrate types showed considerable variation. The average pCO2 threshold value for all substrate types was 654±195 µatm and ranged from 467 to 1003 µatm. The average CO3**2- threshold value was 152±24 µmol/kg, ranging from 113 to 184 µmol/kg. Ambient seawater measurements of pCO2 and CO3**2- indicate that CO3**2- and pCO2 threshold values for all substrate types were both exceeded, simultaneously, 13% of the time at present day atmospheric pCO2 concentrations. It is predicted that atmospheric pCO2 will exceed the average pCO2 threshold value for calcification and dissolution on the Molokai reef flat by the year 2100.