Ocean temperature response to idealized Gleissberg and de Vries solar cycles in a comprehensive climate model

The ~90-year Gleissberg and ~200-year de Vries cycles have been identified as two distinctive quasi-periodic components of Holocene solar activity. Evidence exists for the impact of such multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability in total solar irradiance (TSI) on climate, but concerning the ocean, this evidence is mainly restricted to the surface response. Here we use a comprehensive global climate model to study the impact of idealized solar forcing, representing the Gleissberg and de Vries cycles, on global ocean potential temperature at different depth levels, after a recent proxy record indicates a signal of TSI anomalies in the northeastern Atlantic at mid-depth. Potential impacts of TSI anomalies on deeper oceanic levels are climatically relevant due to their possible effect on ocean circulation by altering water mass characteristics. Simulated solar anomalies are shown to penetrate the ocean down to at least deep-water levels. Despite the fact that the two forcing periods differ only by a factor of ~2, the spatial pattern of response is significantly distinctive between the experiments, suggesting different mechanisms for solar signal propagation. These are related to advection by North Atlantic Deep Water flow (200-year forcing), and barotropic adjustment in the South Atlantic in response to a latitudinal shift of the westerly wind belt (90-year forcing).

Solar sensitivity experiments for the pre-industrial time period using the comprehensive global climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3)

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. The possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. Solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) are carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. In addition, It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

Varved sediments of the Arabian Sea

The upper Holocene marine section from a kasten core taken from the oxygen minimum zone off Karachi (Pakistan) at water depth 700 m contains continuously laminated sediments with a sedimentation rate of 1.2 mm/yr and a unique record of monsoonal climatic variability covering the past 5000 years. Our chronostratigraphy is based on varve counts verified by conventional and AMS14C dating. Individual hemipelagic varve couplets are about 0.8-1.5 mm thick, with light-colored terrigenous laminae (A) deposited mainly during the winter monsoon alternating with dark-colored laminae (B) rich in marine organic matter, coccoliths, and fish debris that reflect deposition during the high-productivity season of the late summer monsoon (August-October). Precipitation and river runoff appear to control varve thickness and turbidite frequency. We infer that precipitation decreased in the river watershed (indicated by thinning varves) after 3500-4000 yr B.P. This is about the time of increasing aridification in the Near East and Middle East, as documented by decreasing Nile River runoff data and lake-level lowstands between Turkey and northwestern India. This precipitation pattern continued until today with precipitation minima about 2200-1900 yr B.P., 1000 yr B.P., and in the late Middle Ages (700-400 yr B.P.), and precipitation maxima in the intervening periods. As documented by spectral analysis, the thickness of varve couplets responds to the average length of a 250-yr cycle, a 125-yr cycle, the Gleissberg cycle of solar activity (95 yr), and a 56-yr cycle of unknown origin. Higher frequency cycles are also present at 45, 39, 29-31, and 14 yr. The sedimentary gray-value also shows strong variability in the 55-yr band plus a 31-yr cycle. Because high-frequency cyclicity in the ENSO band (ca. 3.5 and 5 yr) is only weakly expressed, our data do not support a straightforward interaction of the Pacific ENSO with the monsoon-driven climate system of the Arabian Sea.

Continuous 25-years aerosol records at coastal Antarctica: Part I. Variability and climate implications of ionic compounds

The aerosol climatology at the coastal Antarctic Neumayer Station (NM) was investigated based on continuous, 25-yr long observations of biogenic sulphur components (methanesulfonate and non-sea salt sulphate), sea salt and nitrate. Although significant long-term trends could only be detected for nitrate (-3.6 ± 2.5% per year between 1983 and 1993 and +4.0 ± 3.2% per year from 1993-2007), non-harmonic periodicities between 2 and 5 yr were typical for all species. Dedicated time series analyses revealed that relations to sea ice extent and various circulation indices are weak at best or not significant. In particular, no consistent link between sea ice extent and sea salt loadings was evident suggesting only a rather local relevance of the NM sea salt record. Nevertheless, a higher Southern Annular Mode index tended to entail a lower biogenic sulphur signal. In examining the spatial uniformity of the NM findings we contrasted them to respective 17 yr records from the coastal Dumont d'Urville Station. We found similar long-term trends for nitrate, indicating an Antarctic-wide but not identifiable atmospheric signal, although any significant impact of solar activity or pollution could be ruled out. No inter-site variability on the multiannual scale was evident for the other ionic compounds.

Sedimentology on 19 cores from the South China Sea

Based on the study of 10 sediment cores and 40 core-top samples from the South China Sea (SCS) we obtained proxy records of past changes in East Asian monsoon climate on millennial to bidecadal time scales over the last 220,000 years. Climate proxies such as global sea level, estimates of paleotemperature, salinity, and nutrients in surface water, ventilation of deep water, paleowind strength, freshwater lids, fluvial and/or eolian sediment supply, and sediment winnowing on the sea floor were derived from planktonic and benthic stable-isotope records, the distribution of siliciclastic grain sizes, planktonic foraminifera species, and the UK37 biomarker index. Four cores were AMS-14C-dated. Two different regimes of monsoon circulation dominated the SCS over the last two glacial cycles, being linked to the minima and maxima of Northern Hemisphere solar insolation. (1) Glacial stages led to a stable estuarine circulation and a strong O2-minimum layer via a closure of the Borneo sea strait. Strong northeast monsoon and cool surface water occurred during winter, in part fed by an inflow from the north tip of Luzon. In contrast, summer temperatures were as high as during interglacials, hence the seasonality was strong. Low wetness in subtropical South China was opposed to large river input from the emerged Sunda shelf, serving as glacial refuge for tropical forest. (2) Interglacials were marked by a strong inflow of warm water via the Borneo sea strait, intense upwelling southeast of Vietnam and continental wetness in China during summer, weaker northeast monsoon and high sea-surface temperatures during winter, i.e. low seasonality. On top of the long-term variations we found millennial- to centennial-scale cold and dry, warm and humid spells during the Holocene, glacial Terminations I and II, and Stage 3. The spells were coeval with published variations in the Indian monsoon and probably, with the cold Heinrich and warm Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores, thus suggesting global climatic teleconnections. Holocene oscillations in the runoff from South China centered around periodicities of 775 years, ascribed to subharmonics of the 1500-year cycle in oceanic thermohaline circulation. 102/84-year cycles are tentatively assigned to the Gleissberg period of solar activity. Phase relationships among various monsoon proxies near the onset of Termination IA suggest that summer-monsoon rains and fluvial runoff from South China had already intensified right after the last glacial maximum (LGM) insolation minimum, coeval with the start of Antarctic ice melt, prior to the d18O signals of global sea-level rise. Vice versa, the strength of winter-monsoon winds decreased in short centennial steps only 3000-4000 years later, along with the melt of glacial ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere.

Occurence of flood laminae in sediments of Ammersee

A 450 year spring-summer flood layer time series at seasonal resolution has been established from the varved sediment record of Lake Ammersee (southern Germany), applying a novel methodological approach. The main results are (1) the attainment of a precise chronology by microscopic varve counting, (2) the identification of detrital layers representing flood-triggered fluxes of catchment material into the lake, and (3) the recognition of the seasonality of these flood layers from their microstratigraphic position within a varve. Tracing flood layers in a proximal and a distal core and correlating them by application of the precise chronology provided information on the depositional processes. Comparing the seasonal flood layer record with daily runoff data of the inflowing River Ammer for the period from 1926 to 1999 allowed the definition of an approximate threshold in flood magnitude above which the formation of flood layers becomes very likely. Moreover, it was possible for the first time to estimate the "completeness" of the flood layer time series and to recognize that mainly floods in spring and summer, representing the main flood seasons in this region, are well preserved in the sediment archive. Their frequency distribution over the entire 450 year time series is not stationary but reveals maxima for colder periods of the Little Ice Age when solar activity was reduced. The observed spring-summer flood layer frequency further shows trends similar to those of the occurrence of flood-prone weather regimes since A.D. 1881, probably suggesting a causal link between solar variability and changes in midlatitude atmospheric circulation patterns.

Annual 10Be concentrations from Lakes Tiefer See and Czechowskie AD1983-2009

Beryllium 10 concentrations (10Becon) were measured at annual resolution from varved sediment cores of Lakes Tiefer See (TSK) and Czechowskie (JC) for the period 1983-2009 (~solar cycles 22 and 23). Calibrating the 10Becon time-series against complementing proxy records from the same archive as well as local precipitation and neutron monitor data, reflecting solar forced changes in atmospheric radionuclide production, allowed (i) identifying the main depositional processes and (ii) evaluating the potential for solar activity reconstruction. 10Becon in TSK and JC sediments are significantly correlated to varying neutron monitor counts (TSK: r=0.5, p=0.05, n=16; JC: r=0.46, p=0.03, n=22). However, the further correlations with changes in organic carbon contents in TSK as well as varying organic carbon and detrital matter contents in JC point to catchment specific biases in the 10Becon time-series. In an attempt to correct for these biases multiple regression analysis was applied to extract an atmospheric 10Be production signal (10Be atmosphere). To increase the signal to noise ratio a 10Be composite record (10Be composite) was calculated from the TSK and JC 10Be atmosphere time-series. 10Becomposite is significantly correlated to variations in the neutron monitor record (r=0.49, p=0.01, n=27) and matches the expected amplitude changes in 10Be production between solar cycle minima and maxima. This calibration study on 10Be from two sites indicates the large potential but also, partly site-specific, limitations of 10Be in varved lake sediments for solar activity reconstruction.

Occurence and thickness of flood layers in varved sediments of Lake Ammersee

Microfacies analyses and X-ray fluorescence scanning (µ-XRF) at sub-mm resolution were conducted on the varved Mid- to Late Holocene interval of two sediment profiles from pre-alpine Lake Ammersee (southern Germany). The coring sites are located in a proximal (AS10prox) and distal (AS10dist) position towards the main tributary River Ammer, in 1.8 km distance from each other. To shed light on sediment distribution within the lake, particular emphasis was (1) the detection of intercalated detrital layers and their micro-sedimentological features, and (2) intra-basin correlation of these event deposits. Detrital layers were dated by microscopic varve counting, verified by accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating of terrestrial plant macrofossils. Since ~5500 varve years (vyr) BP, in total 1573 detrital layers were detected in either one or both of the investigated sediment profiles. Based on their microfacies, geochemistry, and proximal-distal deposition pattern, detrital layers were interpreted as River Ammer flood deposits. Earlier studies on flood layer seasonality have proven that flood layer deposition occurs predominantly during spring and summer, the flood season at Lake Ammersee. Most prominent features of the record are the onset of regular flood layer deposition at ~5500 vyr BP in AS10prox and ~ 2800 vyr BP in AS10dist as well as three major increases in mean flood layer thickness at ~5500, 2800, and 400 vyr BP. Integrating information from both sediment profiles allowed to interpret these changes in terms of shifts towards higher mean flood intensity. Proposed triggering mechanisms are gradual reduction in Northern Hemisphere orbital summer forcing and superimposed centennial-scale solar activity minima. Likely responses to this forcing are enhanced equator-to-pole temperature gradients and changes in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. The consequences for the Ammersee region are more intense cyclones leading to extremer rainfall and flood events in spring and summer.

Geochemistry, isotopic ratios, granulometry and Uk'37 derived SST of cores obtained during Poseidon cruise POS287, off Portugal

Continental and marine conditions during the last millennium off Porto, Portugal (the southern pole of the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), are reconstructed from a sediment archive through a high-resolution multiproxy study and instrumental evidence. Results show multidecadal variability and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that correlate well with previously published land and sea-based Northern Hemisphere temperature records, and appear to be responding to long-term solar insolation variability. Precipitation was negatively correlated with the NAO, whereas strong flooding events occurred at times of marked climate cooling (AD 1100-1150 and 1400-1470) and transitions in solar activity. AD 1850 marks a major shift in the phytoplankton community associated with a decoupling of d18O records of 3 planktonic foraminifera species. These changes are interpreted as a response to a reduction in the summer and/or annual upwelling and more frequent fall-winter upwelling-like events. This shift's coincidence with a decrease in SST and the increase in coherence between our data and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) confirms the connection of the upwelling variability to the North Atlantic Ocean's surface and thermohaline circulation on a decadal scale. The disappearance of this agreement between the AMO and our records beyond AD 1850 and its coincidence with the beginning of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 supports the hypothesis of a strong anthropogenic effect on the last ~150 yr of the climate record. Furthermore, it raises an important question of the use of instrumental records as the sole calibration data set for climate reconstructions, as these may not provide the best analogue for climate beyond AD 1730.

Geochemical biomarker analyses on sediment cores PS51/154-11 and PS51/159-10 from the western Laptev Sea (Arctic Ocean)

Multi-proxy biomarker measurements were applied on two sediment cores (PS51/154, PS51/159) to reconstruct sea ice cover (IP25), biological production (brassicasterol, dinosterol) and river run-off (campesterol, beta-sitosterol) in the western Laptev Sea over the last ~17 ka with unprecedented temporal resolution. The absence of IP25 from 17.2 to 15.5 ka, in combination with minimum concentration of phytoplankton biomarkers, suggests that the western Laptev Sea shelf was mostly covered with permanent sea ice. Very minor river run-off and restricted biological production occurred during this cold interval. From ~16 ka until 7.5 ka, a long-term decrease of terrigenous (riverine) organic matter and a coeval increase of marine organic matter reflect the gradual establishment of fully marine conditions in the western Laptev Sea, caused by the onset of the post-glacial transgression. Intensified river run-off and reduced sea ice cover characterized the time interval between 15.2 and 12.9 ka, including the Bølling/Allerød warm period (14.7-12.9 ka). Prominent peaks of the DIP25 Index coinciding with maximum abundances of subpolar foraminifers, are interpreted as pulses of Atlantic water inflow on the western Laptev Sea shelf. After the warm period, a sudden return to severe sea ice conditions with strongest ice-coverage between 11.9 and 11 ka coincided with the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.6 ka). At the onset of the Younger Dryas, a distinct alteration of the ecosystem (reflected in a distinct drop in terrigenous and phytoplankton biomarkers) was detected. During the last 7 ka, the sea ice proxies reflect a cooling of the Laptev Sea spring/summer season. This cooling trend was superimposed by a short-term variability in sea ice coverage, probably representing Bond cycles (1500 ± 500 ka) that are related to solar activity changes. Hence, atmospheric circulation changes were apparently able to affect the sea ice conditions on the Laptev Sea shelf under modern sea level conditions.

Bulk sediment element analysis of sediment cores GeoB10065-9 and GeoB10065-7, offshore northwest Sumba Island, Indonesia

The Australian-Indonesian monsoon has a governing influence on the agricultural practices and livelihood in the highly populated islands of Indonesia. However, little is known about the factors that have influenced past monsoon activity in southern Indonesia. Here, we present a ~6000 years high-resolution record of Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) rainfall variations based on bulk sediment element analysis in a sediment archive retrieved offshore northwest Sumba Island (Indonesia). The record suggests lower riverine detrital supply and hence weaker AISM rainfall between 6000 yr BP and ~3000 yr BP compared to the Late Holocene. We find a distinct shift in terrigenous sediment supply at around 2800 yr BP indicating a reorganization of the AISM from a drier Mid Holocene to a wetter Late Holocene in southern Indonesia. The abrupt increase in rainfall at around 2800 yr BP coincides with a grand solar minimum. An increase in southern Indonesian rainfall in response to a solar minimum is consistent with climate model simulations that provide a possible explanation of the underlying mechanism responsible for the monsoonal shift. We conclude that variations in solar activity play a significant role in monsoonal rainfall variability at multi-decadal and longer timescales. The combined effect of orbital and solar forcing explains important details in the temporal evolution of AISM rainfall during the last 6000 years. By contrast, we find neither evidence for volcanic forcing of AISM variability nor for a control by long-term variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

Stable isotopes, radionuclides, and calculated sea surface temperature of two sediment cores in the Sicily Channel

The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910±12, 1812±18, 1725±25 and 1580±30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales.

Nucleonic intensities investigated during the Atlantic Expedition IQSY 1965 of RV "Meteor" (Appendix)

The nucleonic component of the cosmic rays has been measured by the German research vessel "Meteor" during the Atlantic Expedition IQSY 1965. The pressure corrected intensities fit well the rigidity calculations of Kondo and Kodamo. In this way we confirm the earth's magnetic field model used by these authors. Two positions of the cosmic ray equator have been determined at 29,7 °W (6,5 ± 1) °N and at 19 °W (7 ± 1) °N. These positions agree with the calculated values of Kondo and Kodamo. The total latitude effect of the nucleonic component amounts to 1.74 and 1.76. The measurements were carried out at solar minima activity. Using the values of latitude measurements at maxima solar activity the degree of modulation of the primary cosmic rays was determined in the rigidity range 2 - 13 GV. For rigidity values above 6 GV the modulation remains constant to 20 %.