Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

PaleoTools - extended software package for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions

The Imbrie and Kipp transfer function method (IKM) and the modern analog technique (MAT) are accepted tools for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions. However, no uncomplicated, flexible software has been available to apply these methods on modern computer devices. For this reason the software packages PaleoToolBox, MacTransfer, WinTransfer, MacMAT, and PanPlot have been developed. The PaleoToolBox package provides a flexible tool for the preprocessing of microfossil reference and downcore data as well as hydrographic reference parameters. It includes procedures to randomize the raw databases; to switch specific species in or out of the total species list; to establish individual ranking systems and their application on the reference and downcore databasessemi; and to convert the prepared databases into the file formats of IKM and MAT software for estimation of paleohydrographic parameters.