Investigations on fossil bivalves and wood from Seymour Island, Antarctica

Quasi-periodic variation in sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and sea-level pressure in the equatorial Pacific known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of interannual variability in global climate. A collapse of the tropical Pacific onto a state resembling a so-called 'permanent El Niño', with a preferentially warmed eastern equatorial Pacific, flatter thermocline, and reduced interannual variability, in a warmer world is predicted by prevailing ENSO theory. If correct, future warming will be accompanied by a shift toward persistent conditions resembling El Niño years today, with major implications for global hydrological cycles and consequent impacts on socioeconomic and ecological systems. However, much uncertainty remains about how interannual variability will be affected. Here, we present multi-annual records of climate derived from growth increment widths in fossil bivalves and co-occurring driftwood from the Antarctic peninsula that demonstrate significant variability in the quasi-biennial and 3-6 year bands consistent with ENSO, despite early Eocene (~50 Mya) greenhouse conditions with global average temperature -10 degrees higher than today. A coupled climate model suggests an ENSO signal and teleconnections to this region during the Eocene, much like today. The presence of ENSO variation during this markedly warmer interval argues for the persistence of robust interannual variability in our future greenhouse world.

Deforesting Europe: pollen-inferred Holocene land cover change using the 'pseudobiomization' approach

Maps of continental-scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time-scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio-ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan-European land cover change for the period 9000 BP to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 BP through reduction in broad-leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan-European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 BP onwards. From 2200 BP land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 BP. Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover-climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.

Effect of simulated ocean acidification on the acute toxicity of Cu and Cd to Tigriopus japonicus

Heavy metals pollution in marine environments has caused great damage to marine biological and ecological systems. Heavy metals accumulate in marine creatures, after which they are delivered to higher trophic levels of marine organisms through the marine food chain, which causes serious harm to marine biological systems and human health. Additionally, excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has caused ocean acidification. Indeed, about one third of the CO2 released into the atmosphere by anthropogenic activities since the beginning of the industrial revolution has been absorbed by the world's oceans, which play a key role in moderating climate change. Modeling has shown that, if current trends in CO2 emissions continue, the average pH of the ocean will reach 7.8 by the end of this century, corresponding to 0.5 units below the pre-industrial level, or a three-fold increase in H+ concentration. The ocean pH has not been at this level for several millions of years. Additionally, these changes are occurring at speeds 100 times greater than ever previously observed. As a result, several marine species, communities and ecosystems might not have time to acclimate or adapt to these fast changes in ocean chemistry. In addition, decreasing ocean pH has the potential to seriously affect the growth, development and reproduction reproductive processes of marine organisms, as well as threaten normal development of the marine ecosystem. Copepods are an important part of the meiofauna that play an important role in the marine ecosystem. Pollution of the marine environment can influence their growth and development, as well as the ecological processes they are involved in. Accordingly, there is important scientific value to investigation of the response of copepods to ocean acidification and heavy metals pollution. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of simulated future ocean acidification and the toxicological interaction between ocean acidity and heavy metals of Cu and Cd on T. japonicus. To accomplish this, harpacticoids were exposed to Cu and Cd concentration gradient seawater that had been equilibrated with CO2 and air to reach pH 8.0, 7.7, 7.3 and 6.5 for 96 h. Survival was not significantly suppressed under single sea water acidification, and the final survival rates were greater than 93% in both the experimental groups and the controls. The toxicity of Cu to T. japonicus was significantly affected by sea water acidification, with the 96h LC50 decreasing by nearly threefold from 1.98 to 0.64 mg/L with decreasing pH. The 96 h LC50 of Cd decreased with decreasing pH, but there was no significant difference in mortality among pH treatments. The results of the present study demonstrated that the predicted future ocean acidification has the potential to negatively affect survival of T. japonicus by exacerbating the toxicity of Cu. The calculated safe concentrations of Cu were 11.9 (pH 7.7) and 10.5 (pH 7.3) µg/L, which were below the class I value and very close to the class II level of the China National Quality Standard for Sea Water. Overall, these results indicate that the Chinese coastal sea will face a

Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.