Figures and related data of a review of the "Global and Russian energy outlook up to 2040"

The Global and Russian Energy Outlook up to 2040, prepared by the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, analyses the long-term changes in the main energy markets and thereby identifies the threats to the Russian economy and energy sector. Research has shown that shifts in the global energy sector, especially in hydrocarbon markets (primarily the development of technologies for shale oil and gas extraction), will result in a slowdown of Russia's economy by one percentage point each year on average due to a decrease in energy exports comparison with the official projections. Owing to the lack of development of an institutional framework, an outdated tax system, low competition and low investment efficiency, Russia will be the most sensitive to fluctuations in global hydrocarbon markets among all major energy market players within the forecast period.

Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.

Experiment on inter- and intra-specific phenotypic plasticity of three phytoplankton species in response to ocean acidification

Phenotypic plasticity describes the phenotypic adjustment of the same genotype to different environmental conditions and is best described by a reaction norm. We focus on the effect of ocean acidification (OA) on inter - and intraspecific reaction norms of three globally important phytoplankton species (Emiliania huxleyi, Gephyrocapsa oceanica, Chaetoceros affinis). Despite significant differences in growth rates between the species, they all showed a high potential for phenotypic buffering (no significant difference in growth rates between ambient and high CO2 condition). Only three coccolithophore genotypes showed a reduced growth in high CO2. Largely diverging responses to high CO2 of single coc-colithophore genotypes compared to the respective mean species responses, however, raise the question if an extrapolation to the population level is possible from single genotype experiments. We therefore compared the mean response of all tested genotypes to a total species response comprising the same genotypes, which was not significantly different in the coccolithophores. Assessing species reac-tion norm to different environmental conditions on short time scale in a genotype-mix could thus reduce sampling effort while increasing predictive power.