Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

High-resolution marine record of sediment core MD99-2343 in the Balearic Sea

The IMAGES core MD99-2343, recovered from a sediment drift north of the island of Minorca, in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, holds a high-resolution sequence that is perfectly suited to study the oscillations of the overturning system of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). Detailed analysis of grain-size and bulk geochemical composition reveals the sensitivity of this region to climate changes at both orbital and centennial-millennial temporal scales during the last 50 kyr. The dominant orbital pattern in the K/Al record indicates that sediment supply to the basin was controlled by the insolation evolution at 40°N, which forced changes in the fluvial regime, with more efficient sediment transport during insolation maxima. This orbital control also modulated the long-term pattern of the WMDW intensity as illustrated by the silt/clay ratio. However, deep convection was particularly sensitive to climatic changes at shorter time-scales, i.e. to centennial-millennial glacial and Holocene oscillations that are well documented by all the paleocurrent intensity proxies (Si/Al, Ti/Al and silt/clay ratios). Benthic isotopic records (d13C and d18O) show a Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) pattern of variability of WMDW properties, which can be associated with changing intensities of the deep currents system. The most prominent reduction on the WMDW overturning was caused by the post-glacial sea level rise. Three main scenarios of WMDW overturning are revealed: a strong mode during D-O Stadials, a weak mode during D-O Interstadials and an intermediate mode during cooling transitions. In addition, D-O Stadials associated with Heinrich events (HEs) have a very distinct signature as the strong mode of circulation, typical for the other D-O Stadials, was never reached during HE due to the surface freshening induced by the inflowing polar waters. Consequently, the WMDW overturning system oscillated around the intermediate mode of circulation during HE. Though surface conditions were more stable during the Holocene, the WMDW overturning cell still reacted synchronously to short-lived events, as shown by increments in the planktonic d18O record, triggering quick reinforcements of the deep water circulation. Overall, these results highlight the sensitivity of the WMDW to rapid climate change which in the recent past were likely induced by oceanographic and atmospheric reorganizations in the North Atlantic region.

Relative sensitivity of soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna to increased CO2 and experimental stress

We used a controlled CO2 perturbation experiment to test hypotheses about changes in diversity, composition and structure of soft-bottom intertidal macrobenthic assemblages, under realistic and locally relevant scenarios of seawater acidification. Patches of undisturbed sediment were collected from 2 types of intertidal sedimentary habitat in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (South Portugal) and exposed to 2 levels of seawater acidification (pH reduced by 0.3 and 0.6 units) and 1 unmanipulated (control) level. After 75 d the assemblages differed significantly between the 2 types of sediment and between field controls and the ex situ treatments, but not among the 3 pH levels tested. The naturally high values of total alkalinity buffered seawater from the changes imposed on carbonate chemistry and may have contributed to offsetting acidification at the local scale. Observed differences on biota were strongly related to the organic matter content and grain-size of the sediments, particularly to the fractions of medium and coarse sand. Soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna was significantly affected by the stress of being held in an artificial environment, but not by CO2-induced seawater acidification. Given the previously observed variations in the sensitivities of marine organisms to seawater acidification, direct extrapolations of the present findings to different regions or other types of assemblages do not seem advisable. However, the contribution of ex situ studies to the assessment of ecosystem-level responses to environmental disturbances could generally be improved by incorporating adequate field controls in the experimental design.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, calcification rate, oxygen production, maximum quantum yield, symbiont density, chlorophyll concentration and crystal width of Halimeda macroloba, Halimeda cylindracea and Marginopora vertebralis during experiments, 2011

The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on photosynthesis and calcification in the calcifying algae Halimeda macroloba and Halimeda cylindracea and the symbiont-bearing benthic foraminifera Marginopora vertebralis were investigated through exposure to a combination of four temperatures (28°C, 30°C, 32°C, and 34°C) and four CO2 levels (39, 61, 101, and 203 Pa; pH 8.1, 7.9, 7.7, and 7.4, respectively). Elevated CO2 caused a profound decline in photosynthetic efficiency (FV : FM), calcification, and growth in all species. After five weeks at 34°C under all CO2 levels, all species died. Chlorophyll (Chl) a and b concentration in Halimeda spp. significantly decreased in 203 Pa, 32°C and 34°C treatments, but Chl a and Chl c2 concentration in M. vertebralis was not affected by temperature alone, with significant declines in the 61, 101, and 203 Pa treatments at 28°C. Significant decreases in FV : FM in all species were found after 5 weeks of exposure to elevated CO2 (203 Pa in all temperature treatments) and temperature (32°C and 34°C in all pH treatments). The rate of oxygen production declined at 61, 101, and 203 Pa in all temperature treatments for all species. The elevated CO2 and temperature treatments greatly reduced calcification (growth and crystal size) in M. vertebralis and, to a lesser extent, in Halimeda spp. These findings indicate that 32°C and 101 Pa CO2, are the upper limits for survival of these species on Heron Island reef, and we conclude that these species will be highly vulnerable to the predicted future climate change scenarios of elevated temperature and ocean acidification.

Fossil chironomids of Lake Temje

A 380 cm long sediment core from Lake Temje (central Yakutia, Eastern Siberia) was studied to infer Holocene palaeoenvironmental change in the extreme periglacial setting of eastern Siberia during the last 10,000 years. Data on sediment composition were used to characterize changes in the depositional environment during the ontogenetic development of the Lake Temje. The analysis of fossil chironomid remains and statistical treatment of chironomid data by the application of a newly developed regional Russian transfer functions provided inferences of mean July air temperatures (T_July) and water depths (WD). Reconstructed WDs show minor changes throughout the core and range between 80 and 120 cm. All the fluctuations in reconstructed water depth lie within the mean error of prediction of the inference model (RMSEP = 0.35) so it is not possible to draw conclusions from the reconstructions. A qualitative and quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate in central Yakutia recognized three stages of palaeoenvironmental changes. The early Holocene between 10 and 8 ka BP was characterized by colder-than-today and moist summer conditions. Cryotextures in the lake sediments document full freezing of the lake water during the winter time. A general warming trend started around 8.0 ka BP in concert with enhanced biological productivity. Reconstructed mean T_July were equal or up to 1.5 °C higher than today between 6.0 ka and 5.0 ka BP. During the entire late Holocene after 4.8 ka BP, reconstructed mean T_July remained below modern value. Limnological conditions did not change significantly. The inference of a mid-Holocene climate optimum supports scenarios of Holocene climatic changes in the subpolar part of eastern Siberia and indicates climate teleconnections to the North Atlantic realm.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Porites panamensis during experiments, 2011

Survival of coral planulae, and the successful settlement and healthy growth of primary polyps are critical for the dispersal of scleractinian corals and hence the recovery of degraded coral reefs. It is therefore important to explore how the warmer and more acidic oceanic conditions predicted for the future could affect these processes. This study used controlled culture to investigate the effects of a 1 °C increase in temperature and a 0.2-0.25 unit decrease in pH on the settlement and survival of planulae and the growth of primary polyps in the Tropical Eastern Pacific coral Porites panamensis. We found that primary polyp growth was reduced only marginally by more acidic seawater but the combined effect of high temperature and lowered pH caused a significant reduction in growth of primary polyps by almost a third. Elevated temperature was found to significantly reduce the amount of zooxanthellae in primary polyps, and when combined with lowered pH resulted in a significant reduction in biomass of primary polyps. However, survival and settlement of planula larvae were unaffected by increased temperature, lowered acidity or the combination of both. These results indicate that in future scenarios of increased temperature and oceanic acidity coral planulae will be able to disperse and settle successfully but primary polyp growth may be hampered. The recovery of reefs may therefore be impeded by global change even if local stressors are curbed and sufficient sources of planulae are available.

Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.

Immunomodulating effects of environmentally realistic copper concentrations in Mytilus edulis adapted to naturally low salinities, link to supplementary material

The monitoring of organisms' health conditions by the assessment of their immunocompetence may serve as an important criterion for the achievement of the Good Environmental Status (GES) as defined in the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (EU). In this context, the complex role of natural environmental stressors, e.g. salinity, and interfering or superimposing effects of anthropogenic chemicals, should be carefully considered, especially in scenarios of low to moderate contamination. Organisms from the Baltic Sea have adapted to the ambient salinity regime, however energetically costly osmoregulating processes may have an impact on the capability to respond to additional stress such as contamination. The assessment of multiple stressors, encompassing natural and anthropogenic factors, influencing an organisms' health was the main aim of the present study. Immune responses of Mytilus edulis, collected and kept at natural salinities of 12 per mil (LS) and 20 per mil (MS), respectively, were compared after short-term exposure (1, 7 and 13 days) to low copper concentrations (5, 9 and 16 µg/L Cu). A significant interaction of salinity and copper exposure was observed in copper accumulation. LS mussels accumulated markedly more copper than MS mussels. No combined effects were detected in cellular responses. Bacterial clearance was mostly achieved by phagocytosis, as revealed by a strong positive correlation between bacterial counts and phagocytic activity, which was particularly pronounced in LS mussels. MS mussels, on the other hand, seemingly accomplished bacterial clearance by employing additional humoral factors (16 µg/L Cu). The greatest separating factor in the PCA biplot between LS and MS mussels was the proportion of granulocytes and hyalinocytes while functional parameters (phagocytic activity and bacterial clearance) were hardly affected by salinity, but rather by copper exposure. In conclusion, immune responses of the blue mussel may be suitable and sensitive biomarkers for the assessment of ecosystem health in brackish waters (10-20 per mil S).

Isotope characterization and estimated temperature of formation of calcite veins in ODP Sites 124-768 and 124-770 (Table 1)

Secondary carbonate minerals were recovered within the basalts at both ODP Sites 768 and 770 in the Sulu and Celebes seas. Petrographic and X-ray diffraction analyses indicate that the carbonates are calcites. Other alteration products recognized in the thin sections are smectites, iron oxides, and gypsum. The 13C values of carbonates from both sites range from 1.6 per mil to 2.3 per mil, which are indicative of inorganic carbonate formation with no contributions from 13C-depleted sources such as oxidized organic carbon or methane. The oxygen isotopes at Site 770 range from 30.8 per mil to 31.6 per mil, which indicates a pervasive circulation of cold seawater (9° to 12°C) during alteration of the Celebes Sea basalts. In contrast, carbonates associated with Site 768 basalts have less positive d18O values (21.0 per mil to 27.3 per mil). A lighter 18O isotopic signature indicates the formation of secondary calcite at either higher temperatures or in a system closed to seawater. The rapidly deposited pyroclastic flows at Site 768 would have limited water access to the crust very soon after its formation, which leads us to speculate that the carbonates in the Sulu Sea basalts were formed by isotopically modified fluids resulting from basalt alteration in a closed system.

In-situ seawater pH and temperature during and fitness traits of a calcifying polychaete after a reciprocal transplant experiment in June-July near Ischia, italy

Ocean acidification (OA) is likely to exert selective pressure on natural populations. Our ability to predict which marine species will adapt to OA, and what underlies this adaptive potential, are of high conservation and resource management priority. Using a naturally low pH vent site in the Mediterranean Sea (Castello Aragonese, Ischia) mirroring projected future OA conditions, we carried out a reciprocal transplant experiment to investigate the relative importance of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation in two populations of the sessile, calcifying polychaete /Simplaria /sp. (Annelida, Serpulidae, Spirorbinae): one residing in low pH and the other from a nearby ambient (i.e. high) pH site. We measured a suite of fitness related traits (i.e. survival, reproductive output, maturation, population growth) and tube growth rates in laboratory-bred F2 generation individuals from both populations reciprocally transplanted back into both ambient and low pH /in situ/ habitats. Both populations showed lower expression in all traits, but increased tube growth rates, when exposed to low pH compared to high pH conditions, regardless of their site of origin suggesting that local adaptation to low pH conditions has not occurred. We also found comparable levels of plasticity in the two populations investigated, suggesting no influence of long-term exposure to low pH on the ability of populations to adjust their phenotype. Despite high variation in trait values among sites and the relatively extreme conditions at sites close to the vents (pH < 7.36), response trends were consistent across traits. Hence, our data suggest that, for /Simplaria /and possibly other calcifiers, neither local adaptations nor sufficient phenotypic plasticity levels appear to suffice in order to compensate for the negative impacts of OA on long-term survival. Our work also underlines the utility of field experiments in natural environments subjected to high level of /p/CO_2 for elucidating the potential for adaptation to future scenarios of OA.

Seawater acidification affects the physiological energetics and spawning capacity of the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum during gonadal maturation

Ocean acidification is predicted to have widespread implications for marine bivalve mollusks. While our understanding of its impact on their physiological and behavioral responses is increasing, little is known about their reproductive responses under future scenarios of anthropogenic climate change. In this study, we examined the physiological energetics of the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum exposed to CO2-induced seawater acidification during gonadal maturation. Three recirculating systems filled with 600 L of seawater were manipulated to three pH levels (8.0, 7.7, and 7.4) corresponding to control and projected pH levels for 2100 and 2300. In each system, temperature was gradually increased ca. 0.3 °C per day from 10 to 20 °C for 30 days and maintained at 20 °C for the following 40 days. Irrespective of seawater pH levels, clearance rate (CR), respiration rate (RR), ammonia excretion rate (ER), and scope for growth (SFG) increased after a 30-day stepwise warming protocol. When seawater pH was reduced, CR, ratio of oxygen to nitrogen, and SFG significantly decreased concurrently, whereas ammonia ER increased. RR was virtually unaffected under acidified conditions. Neither temperature nor acidification showed a significant effect on food absorption efficiency. Our findings indicate that energy is allocated away from reproduction under reduced seawater pH, potentially resulting in an impaired or suppressed reproductive function. This interpretation is based on the fact that spawning was induced in only 56% of the clams grown at pH 7.4. Seawater acidification can therefore potentially impair the physiological energetics and spawning capacity of R. philippinarum.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the larval development of the spider crab Hyas araneus from different latitudes (54° vs 79°N), 2010

The combined impacts of future scenarios of ocean acidification and global warming on the larvae of a cold-eurythermal spider crab, Hyas araneus L., were investigated in one of its southernmost populations (living around Helgoland, southern North Sea, 54°N) and one of the northernmost populations (Svalbard, North Atlantic, 79°N). Larvae were exposed at temperatures of 3, 9 and 15°C to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO2) and to CO2 conditions expected for the near or medium-term future (710 ppm by 2100 and 3000 ppm CO2 by 2300 and beyond). Larval development time and biochemical composition were studied in the larval stages Zoea I, II, and Megalopa. Permanent differences in instar duration between both populations were detected in all stages, likely as a result of evolutionary temperature adaptation. With the exception of Zoea II at 3°C and under all CO2 conditions, development in all instars from Svalbard was delayed compared to those from Helgoland, under all conditions. Most prominently, development was much longer and fewer specimens morphosed to the first crab instar in the Megalopa from Svalbard than from Helgoland. Enhanced CO2 levels (710 and particularly 3000 ppm), caused extended duration of larval development and reduced larval growth (measured as dry mass) and fitness (decreasing C/N ratio, a proxy of the lipid content). Such effects were strongest in the zoeal stages in Svalbard larvae, and during the Megalopa instar in Helgoland larvae.

Ocean acidification impacts on sperm mitochondrial membrane potential bring sperm swimming behaviour near its tipping point

Broadcast spawning marine invertebrates are susceptible to environmental stressors such as climate change, as their reproduction depends on the successful meeting and fertilization of gametes in the water column. Under near-future scenarios of ocean acidification, the swimming behaviour of marine invertebrate sperm is altered. We tested whether this was due to changes in sperm mitochondrial activity by investigating the effects of ocean acidification on sperm metabolism and swimming behaviour in the sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii. We used a fluorescent molecular probe (JC-1) and flow cytometry to visualize mitochondrial activity (measured as change in mitochondrial membrane potential, MMP). Sperm MMP was significantly reduced in delta pH -0.3 (35% reduction) and delta pH -0.5 (48% reduction) treatments, whereas sperm swimming behaviour was less sensitive with only slight changes (up to 11% decrease) observed overall. There was significant inter-individual variability in responses of sperm swimming behaviour and MMP to acidified seawater. We suggest it is likely that sperm exposed to these changes in pH are close to their tipping point in terms of physiological tolerance to acidity. Importantly, substantial inter-individual variation in responses of sperm swimming to ocean acidification may increase the scope for selection of resilient phenotypes, which, if heritable, could provide a basis for adaptation to future ocean acidification.

Wet tundra polygon centers and distance between polygon centroids on Samoylov Island, Lena Delta, Siberia, Russia, with links to shape files

Subgrid processes occur in various ecosystems and landscapes but, because of their small scale, they are not represented or poorly parameterized in climate models. These local heterogeneities are often important or even fundamental for energy and carbon balances. This is especially true for northern peatlands and in particular for the polygonal tundra, where methane emissions are strongly influenced by spatial soil heterogeneities. We present a stochastic model for the surface topography of polygonal tundra using Poisson-Voronoi diagrams and we compare the results with available recent field studies. We analyze seasonal dynamics of water table variations and the landscape response under different scenarios of precipitation income. We upscale methane fluxes by using a simple idealized model for methane emission. Hydraulic interconnectivities and large-scale drainage may also be investigated through percolation properties and thresholds in the Voronoi graph. The model captures the main statistical characteristics of the landscape topography, such as polygon area and surface properties as well as the water balance. This approach enables us to statistically relate large-scale properties of the system to the main small-scale processes within the single polygons.