Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

The CoastColour Round Robin datasets: a database to evaluate the performance of algorithms for the retrieval of water quality parameters in coastal waters

The CoastColour project Round Robin (CCRR) project (http://www.coastcolour.org) funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) was designed to bring together a variety of reference datasets and to use these to test algorithms and assess their accuracy for retrieving water quality parameters. This information was then developed to help end-users of remote sensing products to select the most accurate algorithms for their coastal region. To facilitate this, an inter-comparison of the performance of algorithms for the retrieval of in-water properties over coastal waters was carried out. The comparison used three types of datasets on which ocean colour algorithms were tested. The description and comparison of the three datasets are the focus of this paper, and include the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) Level 2 match-ups, in situ reflectance measurements and data generated by a radiative transfer model (HydroLight). The datasets mainly consisted of 6,484 marine reflectance associated with various geometrical (sensor viewing and solar angles) and sky conditions and water constituents: Total Suspended Matter (TSM) and Chlorophyll-a (CHL) concentrations, and the absorption of Coloured Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM). Inherent optical properties were also provided in the simulated datasets (5,000 simulations) and from 3,054 match-up locations. The distributions of reflectance at selected MERIS bands and band ratios, CHL and TSM as a function of reflectance, from the three datasets are compared. Match-up and in situ sites where deviations occur are identified. The distribution of the three reflectance datasets are also compared to the simulated and in situ reflectances used previously by the International Ocean Colour Coordinating Group (IOCCG, 2006) for algorithm testing, showing a clear extension of the CCRR data which covers more turbid waters.