Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

(Table 2) Picked maximum velocities from 3 radars (RAY, SHK, and SUM), showing 10 explosions at Erebus volcano, Antarctica, and their respective directivity vectors

We used a novel system of three continuous wave Doppler radars to successfully record the directivity of i) Strombolian explosions from the active lava lake of Erebus volcano, Antarctica, ii) eruptions at Stromboli volcano, Italy, and iii) a man-made explosion in a quarry. Erebus volcano contains a convecting phonolite lava lake, presumably connected to a magma chamber at depth. It is one of the few open vent volcanoes that allow a direct observation of source processes during explosions. Its lava lake is the source of frequent violent Strombolian explosions, caused by large gas bubbles bursting at the lake surface. The exact mechanism of these bubble bursts is unclear, as is the mechanism of the creation of the infrasound signal accompanying the explosions. We use the Doppler radar data to calculate the directivity of Strombolian eruptions at Erebus. This allows us to derive information about the expected type of infrasound source pattern (i.e. the role of a dipole in addition to the monopole signature) and the physical structure of the volcano. We recorded 10 large explosions simultaneously with three radars, enabling us to calculate time series of 3D directivity vectors (i.e. effectively 4D), which describe the direction of preferred expansion of the gas bubble during an explosion. Such directivity information allows a comparison to dipole infrasound radiation patterns recorded during similar explosions only a few weeks later. Video observations of explosions support our interpretation of the measurements. We conclude that at Erebus, the directivity of explosions is mainly controlled by random processes. Since the geometry of the uppermost conduit is assumed to have a large effect on the directivity of explosions, the results suggest a largely symmetrical uppermost conduit with a vertical axis of symmetry. For infrasound recordings, a significant dipole signature can be expected in addition to the predominant monopole signature.