3 resultados para STL-Modelle

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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We re-evaluate the Greenland mass balance for the recent period using low-pass Independent Component Analysis (ICA) post-processing of the Level-2 GRACE data (2002-2010) from different official providers (UTCSR, JPL, GFZ) and confirm the present important ice mass loss in the range of -70 and -90 Gt/y of this ice sheet, due to negative contributions of the glaciers on the east coast. We highlight the high interannual variability of mass variations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), especially the recent deceleration of ice loss in 2009-2010, once seasonal cycles are robustly removed by Seasonal Trend Loess (STL) decomposition. Interannual variability leads to varying trend estimates depending on the considered time span. Correction of post-glacial rebound effects on ice mass trend estimates represents no more than 8 Gt/y over the whole ice sheet. We also investigate possible climatic causes that can explain these ice mass interannual variations, as strong correlations between GRACE-based mass balance and atmosphere/ocean parallels are established: (1) changes in snow accumulation, and (2) the influence of inputs of warm ocean water that periodically accelerate the calving of glaciers in coastal regions and, feed-back effects of coastal water cooling by fresh currents from glaciers melting. These results suggest that the Greenland mass balance is driven by coastal sea surface temperature at time scales shorter than accumulation.

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The high-altitude lake Tso Moriri (32°55'46'' N, 78°19'24'' E; 4522 m a.s.l.) is situated at the margin of the ISM and westerly influences in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Human settlements are rare and domestic and wild animals are concentrating at the alpine meadows. A set of modern surface samples and fossil pollen from deep-water TMD core was evaluated with a focus on indicator types revealing human impact, grazing activities and lake system development during the last ca. 12 cal ka BP. Furthermore, the non-pollen palynomorph (NPP) record, comprising remains of limnic algae and invertebrates as well as fungal spores and charred plant tissue fragments, were examined in order to attest palaeolimnic phases and human impact, respectively. Changes in the early and middle Holocene limnic environment are mainly influenced by regional climatic conditions and glacier-fed meltwater flow in the catchment area. The NPP record indicates low lake productivity with high influx of freshwater between ca. 11.5 and 4.5 cal ka BP which is in agreement with the regional monsoon dynamics and published climate reconstructions. Geomorphologic observations suggest that during this period of enhanced precipitation the lake had a regular outflow and contributed large amounts of water to the Sutlej River, the lower reaches of which were integral part of the Indus Civilization area. The inferred minimum fresh water input and maximum lake productivity between ca. 4.5-1.8 cal ka BP coincides with the reconstruction of greatest aridity and glaciation in the Korzong valley resulting in significantly reduced or even ceased outflow. We suggest that lowered lake levels and river discharge on a larger regional scale may have caused irrigation problems and harvest losses in the Indus valley and lowlands occupied by sedentary agricultural communities. This scenario, in turn, supports the theory that, Mature Harappan urbanism (ca. 4.5-3.9 cal ka BP) emerged in order to facilitate storage, protection, administration, and redistribution of crop yields and secondly, the eventual collapse of the Harappan Culture (ca. 3.5-3 cal ka BP) was promoted by prolonged aridity. There is no clear evidence for human impact around Tso Moriri prior to ca. 3.7 cal ka BP, with a more distinct record since ca. 2.7 cal ka BP. This suggests that the sedimentary record from Tso Moriri primarily archives the regional climate history.

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A multicentennial and absolutely-dated shell-based chronology for the marine environment of the North Icelandic Shelf has been constructed using annual growth increments in the shell of the long-lived bivalve clam Arctica islandica. The region from which the shells were collected is close to the North Atlantic Polar Front and is highly sensitive to the varying influences of Atlantic and Arctic water masses. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths, and although the correlations between the growth increment indices and regional sea surface temperatures are significant at the 95% confidence level, they are low (r ~ 0.2), indicating that a more complex combination of environmental forcings is driving growth. Remarkable longevities of individual animals are apparent in the increment-width series used in the chronology, with several animals having lifetimes in excess of 300 years and one, at 507 years, being the longest-lived non-colonial animal so far reported whose age at death can be accurately determined. The sample depth is at least three shells after AD 1175, and the time series has been extended back to AD 649 with a sample depth of one or two by the addition of two further series, thus providing a 1357-year archive of dated shell material. The statistical and spectral characteristics of the chronology are investigated by using two different methods of removing the age-related trend in shell growth. Comparison with other proxy archives from the same region reveals several similarities in variability on multidecadal timescales, particularly during the period surrounding the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age.