(Table 2) Survivorship of transplanted seedlings of Picea glauca inside and outside three tree islands in 1994, 1995, 2009 and after 15 years

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest-tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest-tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest-tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest-tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest-tundra ecotone.

Berry size and seed number of V. myrtillus and E. hermaphroditum according to treatment, and environmental parameters 1991-2009 at Abisko Research Station

This study investigated the effects of long-term-enhanced UV-B, and combined UV-B with elevated CO2 on dwarf shrub berry characteristics in a sub-arctic heath community. Germination of Vaccinium myrtillus was enhanced in seeds produced at elevated UV-B, but seed numbers and berry size were unaffected. Elevated UV-B and CO2 stimulated the abundance of V. myrtillus berries, whilst UV-B alone stimulated the berry abundance of V. vitis-idaea and Empetrum hermaphroditum. Enhanced UV-B reduced concentrations of several polyphenolics in V. myrtillus berries, whilst elevated CO2 increased quercetin glycosides in V. myrtillus, and syringetin glycosides and anthocyanins in E. hermaphroditum berries. UV-B x CO2 interactions were found for total anthocyanins, delphinidin-3-hexoside and peonidin-3-pentosidein in V. myrtillus berries but not E. hermaphroditum. Results suggest positive impacts of UV-B on the germination of V. myrtillus and species-specific impacts of UV-B x elevated CO2 on berry abundance and quality. The findings have relevance and implications for human and animal consumers plus seed dispersal and seedling establishment.

Establishment, expansion and regeneration of aspen (Populus tremula) in the Torneträsk area, subarctic Sweden

In subarctic Sweden, recent decadal colonization and expansion of aspen (Populus tremula L.) were recorded. Over the past 100 years, aspen became c. 16 times more abundant, mainly as a result of increased sexual regeneration. Moreover, aspen now reach tree-size (>2 m) at the alpine treeline, an ecotone that has been dominated by mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) for at least the past 4000 years. We found that sexual regeneration in aspen probably occurred seven times or more within the last century. Whereas sexual regeneration occurred during moist years following a year with an exceptionally high June-July temperature, asexual regeneration was favored by warm and dry summers. Disturbance to the birch forest by cyclic moth population outbreaks was critical in aspen establishment in the subalpine area. At the treeline, aspen colonization was less determined by these moth outbreaks, and was mainly restricted by summer temperature. If summer warming persists, aspen spread may continue in subarctic Sweden, particularly at the treeline. However, changing disturbance regimes, future herbivore population dynamics and the responses of aspen's competitors birch and pine to a changing climate may result in different outcomes.